Despite what was by his own measure a poor performance by the UUP, Alex Kane believes that retaining Trimble as leader is still tenable, although mostly because most of the alternatives involving moving the party to the right of the DUP are entirely untenable.
By Alex Kane
No amount of spin or cookie cutting can disguise the sheer horror of the UUP�s Euro result. The lowest vote and percentage of vote in the party�s history and out-polled in every constituency by the DUP. On these figures no UUP Assembly, Westminster or Council seat should be considered safe.
I have some sympathy with those who say that David Trimble�s position as leader is now untenable. I mean, how long can a leader continue in office, when one bad electoral result follows another? David Burnside has started rattling the cage again, the cabals are busy plotting again and the party seems set for Act 6 of an ongoing civil war.
But how tenable is the strategy of dumping Trimble and replacing him with a leadership�individual or corporate�which will try to outflank the DUP on the right? Indeed, where is the alternative? Reg Empey didn�t have the courage, or desire, to challenge Trimble at March�s AGM; and Burnside has already ruled himself out.
Yet lack of an alternative is hardly a convincing argument for keeping Trimble at the helm. My own gut instinct is that he should stay in office, but it is essential that he rids himself of the circle of advisers whose advice has proved worthless and whose expertise is non-existent. The party�s fortunes are salvageable—and under his leadership—but heads must roll, and responsibility for failure must be accepted. Hiding from electoral realities is an untenable strategy.
And why do I think the UUP�s fortunes are salvageable? The DUP has been far too cocky, far too triumphalist, in the past few days. It has been very loud in its cock-a-doodle-doo of victory, but almost mute on the matter of delivering a deal. Indeed, the �Smash Sinn Fein� mantra has been replaced with a model of government which involves sharing power with Sinn Fein while pretending that it will be the same system that applies already at local council level. In other words, decommissioning is sidelined and a 12 strong Executive coalition is replaced with a 108 strong coalition! That, Mr. Robinson, is a turkey that won�t fly.
Also, Jim Allister�s acceptance speech, and Peter Robinson�s bad tempered spat with Michael McGimpsey on the BBC on Monday evening, showed a very ugly and unpleasant side to the DUP—a side they tried to hide during the campaign. Their bile and aggression is directed almost totally at the UUP. The talk of targeting every seat is simply a tactical ploy to keep the spotlight off the fact that they know that they are going to find it almost impossible to deliver the promised �Fair Deal.�
The DUP has difficult decisions to make in the next few months: it�s either compromise with Sinn Fein, or fail to deliver an alternative deal. The former will rip the party apart, and the latter will disillusion the grassroots. So the DUP hierarchy will choose to concentrate on demonising the UUP, promising fresh successes at the next election, and pretending that sweeping victory will produce a unionist Utopia.
That is why the UUP must resist the temptation to wobble and panic. The campaign it embarked upon in 1997 is not yet finished; the electoral battles are not over. It is a difficult judgement call, and I have some reservations, but I still believe David Trimble deserves the benefit of the doubt.
First published in The Newsletter on Saturday 17th June 2004
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
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