No deal until 2006?

Two writers examine what may become one of the more important results last week – the electoral success of Sinn Fein in the local elections in the Republic, and the good showing of several party candidates in the European election, including the election of its first MEP in Dublin. Tom Griffin, the political editor of the Irish World on the threat to Fianna Fail, and the often irracisble but sharp analysis of Brian Feeney.

Feeney argues that Sinn Fein will likely have the option of being in government in two general elections time, which he beleives will bring serious pressure to bear upon the DUP to deal earlier rather than later with Sinn Fein.

“…2006 is the last chance the DUP have to make a deal advantageous to unionism. Guys like Robinson and Dodds are well aware of the basic ingredient in the history of unionism’s decline over the last 40 years. They know that every time unionists walked away from the table, there was less on it for them the next time they returned”.

Interesting, particularly given the differential in voter turnout between nationalist and unionist areas. More importantly he rather casually hints that by the Republic’s next election the IRA will have become an old comrades association. He implies, without stating as much, that the IRA will have completed some form of voluntary decommissioning process by that time. Certainly 2006 fits such a timetable.

If Feeney is right, we will be waiting another two years before a deal satisfactory to all sides in Northern Ireland can be done. If the process is complete and publicly verifiable, it may be that Sinn Fein, the DUP et al will be able to take their d’Hondt seats at the top table of a reborn Executive, fully four years after its apparent demise.

Mick Fealty

Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty