UUC: dissidents need a plan

Alex Kane further explores the aftermath of the last UUC meeting and suggests that David Trimble must use the time between now and its next annual meeting to consolidate his victory. He argues that the opposition has punched its way to stalemate because it has not been able to sketch out even roughly what it’s alternative to the current Agreement might be.

By Alex. Kane

This summer�s blockbuster at the American box-office was Jason Vs Freddie, in which the anti-heroes of the Friday The Thirteenth and Nightmare on Elm Street series went head to head in a bloody showdown. As horror movies go, it was entertaining in an odd sort of way, and, like all movies of this particular genre, it has an ending which prepares us for the inevitable sequel.

Now, while meetings of the Ulster Unionist Council may lack the body count of their Hollywood counterparts, they are no less horrific in their own way and you can always depend on another installment a few months down the line.

The problem for David Trimble is that Jeffrey won�t lie down. No matter how many times he is knocked down, he bounces back, angrier than ever, and determined to settle old, new, imagined and, sometimes, invented scores.

Those of you who have seen Invasion of the Body Snatchers, or any of its host of imitators, will be aware of the scenario in which once reasonable people become possessed by alien forces. This is what David Trimble faces every time a meeting of the UUC is convened. Yes, there are still friendly and sympathetic faces, but they seem to be fewer and fewer in number.

In essence, Trimble is a hero trapped in the wrong sort of plot. What he needs is a showdown at the OK Corral; an encounter between opposing forces in which the winners walk away, and the losers are carted off to Boot Hill. No point in wearing the Sheriff�s badge, if you have to share offices with the undead.

That said, this was probably Trimble�s most satisfying victory at the UUC since April 1998. Donaldson has now peaked. He looked and sounded tired and most of his speech was a re-run of what he had said on June 16th. If he couldn�t beat Trimble in these sort of circumstances—in which the whiff of martyrdom was blended with the spice of naked hatred—he is unlikely to ever beat him. It seems certain that the NO camp will now look for another champion and a new strategy.

It wasn�t a good day for Reg Empey, either. There had been rumours of a pact between himself and Donaldson and suggestions that Reg would neither speak nor vote. In the event, only three of the 805 delegates abstained, and the Chairman and vice-Chairman of Reg�s constituency association threw their weight behind Mr. Trimble. The message for those who talk of a middle ground within the party, is that there isn�t a middle ground at the UUC. Plans to shuffle Trimble aside, by gathering a consensus against him from elements within both pro and anti-Agreement camps, will have to be put on hold.

So, why does Trimble keep winning? Probably because those who oppose him have never come up with a transparently vote-winning alternative. One delegate suggested: �The product we are offering is not Ulster friendly. If we need to change the leader to change the policy, so be it.� Actually, if they are serious about changing the leader, they would be well advised to produce the new policy first. Donaldson�s supporters have failed to grasp the first rule of rebellion; if you want change, then let people know in which direction you intend to take them.

The most audible sigh of relief, though, came from within the ranks of the DUP. A viable Empey/Donaldson �dream ticket� is their worst nightmare, for Peter Robinson believes that it would give the illusion (and that�s all it would be) of unity and toughness within the Ulster Unionists, and rob the DUP of the opportunity to overtake and replace their old rivals.

For the moment, however, David Trimble should enjoy and exploit his victory. Last Saturday was a significant personal triumph for him, won against a background of abstention, ambiguity and self-aggrandizement from some former allies. He is safe until next March�s annual meeting of the UUC. He should take the time to reward loyalty and promote those who have demonstrated their willingness to support him at the toughest of times. Above and beyond all else, he should remember Napoleon�s dictum; �Your most dangerous enemy is your former ally. Forgive him personally, but never politically.�

First published in the Newsletter on Saturday 13th September, 2003

Mick Fealty

Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty