November elections?

There has been increasing speculation behind the scenes that a late October/November election might now be on the cards. Certainly there have been fairly relaxed calls in the last day or so from Sinn Fein for movement, and even though Mark Durkan believes the troubles in the UUP have some way to run, further parking of the process will do little to help Trimble’s pro-Agreement wing of that party.

David Ford, leader of the Alliance party, yesterday expressed cautious optimism, but gave an outline of what he thought was necessary for Unionists to resume engagement in constitutional politics:

First, a range of sanctions has to be put in place that gives all parties confidence that in the event of a major breach of trust, effective action will be taken to maintain the integrity of the process. We welcome the announcement of the Monitoring Commission proposals.

“Second, the onus is on the Republican Movement to finally and clearly state that they accept paragraph 13 of the Joint Declaration and that accordingly there will be an end to all paramilitary activity. Whatever concerns there are about the behaviour of certain Unionists, the crisis arose last autumn because of the behaviour of republicans.

Clearly, there are several parts to this, though in the end it may simply come down to whether the British government believes it has given Trimble an even chance of retaining pole position within Unionism. The apparently warm response from Martin McGuinness yesterday, may be an indication that when it comes to it this time Sinn Fein and the IRA will take the political risk of engaging the various outstanding acts of completion, before the elections take place.

Mick Fealty

Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty