Unionist endgame has begun

Alex Kane this week notes what looks like the increasing isolation of David Trimble within the Unionist party, but suggests that the rising problem for Unionism in general is how the anti-Agreement faction will manage the journey towards some from of Agreement with Nationalist Northern Ireland.

By Alex Kane

The loudest noise in the political undergrowth this week was the sound of Ulster Unionist knees knocking as news filtered through the grapevine that David Trimble had lost the High Court showdown with his �rebels.� In losing that battle, and in surviving his no confidence motion in Upper Bann by less than a 65 per cent plus comfort zone, he is in danger of being reduced to mere de facto control of the party.

He is an increasingly isolated figure; reviled by his internal enemies and misunderstood by those who have previously been loyal to him. The latter group can be divided into two camps: those who put loyalty to the party before loyalty to the leader, and those, the most pluralist minded of all, who cannot understand why their leader is seemingly incapable of striking a killer blow against his opponents.

This may explain the not so golden sound of silence which has accompanied Mr. Trimble for the past three weeks. No-one from his own side is prepared to endorse him publicly. Oh yes, they will talk about the DUP, or the Agreement, or interface violence. But when was the last time you heard someone actually defend David Trimble by name? As the going gets tougher for him, the muzzle-beaked chicken-lickens are busy deserting the roost.

In my view—and I accept that it is a minority view—David Trimble can still win. But he must begin by taking a close look at the skills, the advice and the backup provided by that clique of advisers and hangers-on who are described in the media as �sources and aides close to Mr. Trimble.� With one, or perhaps two exceptions, they have been collectively appalling; constantly on the defensive, out of touch with the grassroots, tactically wrong on almost every occasion and unable to see any further than the need to scrape over the next hurdle.

The Belfast Agreement was, and remains, a turning point for unionism. It required a new mindset and needed new methods for promoting and protecting the pro-Union position. Everybody knows that a renegotiated, or entirely new agreement, would bear striking similarities to the existing one. In other words, irrespective of which side wins the present battle, exactly the same battle will have to be fought again, in either a few months, or a few years time.

That is the message which Mr. Trimble has to get across. Those bent upon his destruction, both inside and outside the party, are not, in fact, offering any solutions to the problems being faced by unionism. They will not unite unionism; they will not address the needs of the pro-Union community; they will not deliver a unionist utopia; and they will not face down and defeat the collective will of the British and Irish governments.

Yes, unionism is in turmoil, exactly the same sort of turmoil it faced in 1974 and 1985. And it will face the same turmoil again and again until it has the courage to embrace reality, take a decision, and, most important of all, stick to and sell the merits of that decision.

The good news for the UUP is that the DUP�s latest policy document, Towards A New Agreement, is so far removed from reality, that its electoral hopes of emerging as the majority voice of unionism have fallen through the floor. The greatest skill of the illusionist is the art of misdirection: �If the eyes and ears of the audience see and hear what you want them to see and hear, then their brains will follow. You can make them believe that an elephant has disappeared.�

The DUP has the same approach to policy and strategy. Build in enough distraction, sleight-of-hand and sheer folderol and maybe, just maybe, you will convince the audience that the Agreement, Sinn Fein and the Irish government have disappeared. Deluded though the document may be, it represents the effective shafting of Peter Robinson and the pragmatic wing of the DUP. The Big Man spoke and in a full bullish sentences, pushed his congenital deputy back to square one.

The DUP is a busted flush. The Donaldson/Molyneaux/Dinosaur wing of unionism is all sleeve and no tricks. This is why Trimble has to fight on and fight on to eventual victory. He has nothing to lose now by upping the stakes, for his opponents have absolutely nothing to offer. The endgame has started, with everything still to play for.

First published in the Newsletter, on Saturday 12th July.

Mick Fealty

Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty