Will the McGuinness candidacy be an audacious use of Sinn Fein’s kitchen sink?
So who says the cutest hoors in Ireland are all from Dublin? We have one or two of our own in Belfast [And Carrigart? - Ed]. On Friday, Eamonn Mallie asked on Twitter why Martin McGuinness’ nascent bid to run for Irish President hadn’t got a mention on the Late Late Show made no mention of the only story in Belfast town.
Instead Tubridy and Co were focused on the Norris confession that he’s thinking about re-entry, in the context of the alleged collapse of confidence within Fianna Fail (whose pugnacious instincts are second only to those of northern Sinn Fein).
It’s clear that many commentators in the Republic still regard any residual interest in Sinn Fein as a peculiarly northern obsession. When you look at the figures, you can see why. The party barely registered 9% 10% in the popular vote in February.
In the case of Fianna Fail (one of several intended victims in this election) they’ve so far failed to show up for a fight where you can expect Sinn Fein to try their infamous ‘lend us’ your vote strategy with which they shucked SDLP of its political leadership within Northern Irish Nationalism.
A tense meeting is expected today in Leinster House… Will they turn on sixpence and belatedly take to the water? They may not have much to win, but they may have much more to lose…
The comparison with the SDLP is tempting, but it’s also misleading. For one thing, there’s the pre McGuinness announcement poll… Fianna Fail is already down by 7% points on February’s disasterous showing. Sinn Fein is up 1%. That puts FF on a mere 10%.
The truth is that Fianna Fail is not Sinn Fein’s only target. As the Irish Independent notes today:
…there is one candidate who is probably quite pleased by yesterday’s news. Fine Gael’s presidential candidate, the pugnacious Gay Mitchell, was always going to struggle against Labour’s Michael D Higgins.
He stands a much better chance now that Mr McGuinness is set to announce his candidacy. Nothing is more guaranteed to motivate the Fine Gael grassroots to get out and support Mr Mitchell than the prospect of a McGuinness presidency.
Mr Mitchell, whose campaign had been foundering, will now be able to tap into deep tribal loyalties. Suddenly his emphasis on Fine Gael’s traditional values has been transformed from a liability into an asset.
Throw in the Independents, Labour sceptics, and what’s left of the Fianna Fail republican base, and this could be, the party hopes, a transformative moment for Sinn Fein’s progress south of the border. But, even if as noted previously on Slugger, the opposition are not that far ahead, it still looks like a play, rather than a realizable goal.
As McGuinness steps down from his office as Deputy First Minister this morning, the criticism from the Unionist benches is likely to be muted. The leave of absence principle for political purposes was first induced by David Trimble and latterly by Peter Robinson.
Whilst I cannot see a downside for Sinn Fein (a win, although unlikely, would be a nice transition mechanism for a new leadership in Northern Ireland), Maurice Hayes is more sceptical:
No doubt Sinn Fein see this as an opportunity to establish themselves as the only all-Ireland party — which is fine as far as it goes. The sober truth is that electors show little interest at present in all-Ireland politics. A marked effect of recession and economic and fiscal crisis has been to drive people, North and South, into their fox-holes in the hope of mere survival.
To build a 32 county democracy, you first must build a single polis. For now, Sinn Fein’s cause of uniting the two parts of the island is shared only by a tiny minority in the south and polarises opinion in Northern Ireland such that the project is siloed into a tribal base.
McGuinness’s exposure south of the border will certainly be good for the party. Whether you believe that’s also good for the cause of Irish unity, is a matter of beleif (as Hayes hints above, there’s little evidence that’s why southerners vote for Sinn Fein).
Mr McGuinness’ ruthless past (‘Ah, death, certainly’) may make this dirty campaign, dirtier still. But, possibly, the more damaging may be Sinn Fein’s apparent inability to get anything done after four years in office (think students fees, think RPA, think education reform, think corporation tax) in the Northern Ireland Executive…
In the end, it is an audacious move, even if (having examined all the alternatives) Mr McGuinness constitutes the party’s proverbial kitchen sink.
Topic: Government, Politics
Region: Ireland, Northern Ireland
fo,
OC Ireland certainly is.
Limerick, OC?
But anyway, you’re British are you not? Why would this campaign interest you? Is there not something in England or Wales going on that you could go to some forum and offer your opinions on?
Son of…
Beeehaaaave!
Son of Strongbow,
I have said previously that Loyalists like you should not start crawling out of the woodwork giving your poisonous opinions to Irish voters about who we should vote for as our President. It’s a matter for the nationalist Irish people across Ireland’s 32 counties who our President is, not the minority of Loyalists in Greater Belfast whose pathetic and weird hatred and poison for the majority of people on their own small island is never far from the surface.
It doesn’t take much for Our Wee Marty to lose his cool,Limerick.
He better get used to it. The questions he will get from Southern Irish journalists will make Noel Thompson look like Andy Pandy.
Did the shinner strategists not think this through properly ?
Did they think Marty would be carried,shoulder high,unchallenged,unquestioned,into presidential office ?
They better think again.
fo……..As a British Minister,Marty’s campaign is of interest to us British.
You offer opinions on matters British every day on here.
Actually roc,it’s a 26 county,foreign event,and your love of your fellow islanders,in that weird,poisonous,hate laden diatribe,comes shining through !!(??)
Heinz,
You’re a troll and little else.
“It’s a matter for the nationalist Irish people across Ireland’s 32 counties who our President is,”
Well the outreach was nice while it lasted.
Roc,
Stop feeding him then!
Limerick,
What outreach? The Queen of England, as all Americans call her, is the Unionist peoples’ head of state. Fair enough. The Irish President is thus none of your business. Leave it to the locals, eh.
Fair enough Mick.
But McGuinness hasn’t got a vote yet and the Loyalist vitriol towards the South is coming out. It’s tiresome in this day and age.
“The Irish President is thus none of your business. Leave it to the locals, eh.”
I welcome your partitionist attitude.
Look this is not easy for anyone. All I am asking for is a bit of bluntness combined with a modicum of civility. I will uphold proper criticism, but not barefaced flaming!
But I’ve bounced three people off Slugger in the last 24 hours. And there’s a few more on my list. If individuals don’t want to engage, I’m sure there are many others who would in their absence!
if you see other people making eejits of themselves there is no need to join in!,
Mick: I genuinely do not know what it is you are referring to – be clear. Personally, I want to represent the POV that MMG would be ridiculous as a President,mainly because he is/was a terrorist despite his change of heart and Ireland should be able to do better.
Ref the confrontation above.
I could live with Martin McGuinness as President of the foreign country next door if he was honest about his IRA involvement (leaving in 1974? – get real), offered a sincere apology to the tens of thousands of IRA victims and admitted the PIRA campaign was a futile waste of life which gained nothing and should never be repeated.
Instead we get shifty eyes, bare-faced lies and the ‘Who? Me?’ shrug of the shoulders – as if he’s never harmed the hair on another’s head.
The people of the Republic of Ireland need to think long and hard about the message they are sending to the Unionist community in Northern Ireland by voting for Martin McGuinness in a Presidential election.
The Sinners imagine they are smart, but in fact they are incredibly stupid and self defeating. The ROI has come along in leaps and bounds in the past twenty years, and despite their financial bankruptcy, they have slain many of the dragons of old.
The RC church for instance is no longer the proxy government, and they have made genuine leaps forward in their attempts to befriend unionists. Not least via the office of their President.
It is not beyond the realms of possibility that some day in the future unionists might come to view the ROI as a friend rather than a threat. They might even come to see a day where their future might be better as a part of that ROI.
Then along come the clodhopping Sinners who quite happily put forward the man who many unionists regard as having been responsible for the crap that they endured for thirty five years from republican terrorists.
Already they know that a large chunk of their neighbours are perfectly happy to support and vote for the people who provided, at best, political cover for the murderers who stalked them.
Now the Sinners think it will push forward a united Ireland agenda if they manage to demonstrate that a large chunk of the ROI’s community feels the same way.
The result of this election will be fascinating, but in terms of unionist outreach the best thing the electorate of the ROI can do is deliver McGuinness a humiliating wipeout.
You know that thingy where an analysis is done on an article and the results show the frequency of words used by the size of the font? It would be interesting to do that with the MMG threads if anyone knows how to do it.
@ joeCanuck
http://www.wordle.net/
I see candidate Martin is already doing the whole having-your-cake-and-eating-it doublethink thing.
Interviewed on his return from NY, he talked about how he didn’t think “the people of Ireland” would be influenced by media treatment of his past, and how if selected by “the people of Ireland” he would meet any Head of State.
There was me thinking SF criticised the use of “Ireland” to refer to “the 26 counties”…
Further to my last post above, I also noticed McGuinness twice referring, in an interview on Newslines last night, to running to be “president of my country”.
Would he actually see the Republic of Ireland (“the 26 counties”) as “his country”?
Under ‘normal circumstances ‘ an SF candidate for the Irish Presidential election in particular one from Northern Ireland would have as much chance as a Mongolian from Ulan Bator .
Bu these are not ‘normal circumstances . The political climate has changed -there is widespread understated revulsion at how the establishment politicians of the three main parties had their collective political intelligence up their rear ends for the past decade . The FG/Labour coalition know that they are in government not because of their efforts or policies in opposition but simply because the electorate wanted FF out . The FG/Lab position is by default but already some of their Ministers have forgotten that fact. This coming Presidential election will give voters a perfect opportunity to remind FG/Lab that they too are on probation .
By focusing on MMcG ‘s pre political past they run a huge risk of that ploy failing miserably and even backfiring in the SF candidate’s favour . Even though the office of President is above political parties , this election will be party political much more so than others in the past .
McGuinness has been in ‘politics’ since 1969 or thereabouts and has dealt directly or indirectly with every British prime Minister since James Callaghan . He has been photo oped with USA Presidents and European Commissioners and has even been accused of being a chuckie brother to Ian Paisley and then there is his DFM position in the NI Assembly which he has kept going despite setbacks . He’s certainly not a political lightweight which is a charge that could be levelled against most of his fellow candidates.
The problem for those who for the sake of convenience I’ll call the anti SF factions under all circumstances bar none and in particular those with a personal vent against McGuinness is that they have no option but to attack his pre political record for to attack SF economic and social policies given the current performance by the Republic’s government parties and the FF former government’s would be to invite retaliation with interest as the electorate are more sympathethic to the SF view of what has happened to the economy these past few years than to the ‘establishment view’ that it was all just a big ‘error ‘ that was’nt their fault anyway but the fault of ‘foreigners’ especially their banks . Nobody buys that line -not that they ever did -well not entirely anyway .
Ironically or maybe not so this looks like an election in which the establishment parties have almost check mated themselves into losing before the election even takes off . At this stage and I don’t know if he’ll yet make an entry Senator Norris appears to be the only one who could sting the SF tail as the All Ireland bird poises to take off .
Mike the First ,
McGuinness would probably reply that he sees Ireland in the same way as the GAA and the Rugby union and not in the IFA/FAI manner . I doubt if he’d be so crude as to point out the consistent and relative success of the GAA and the IRFU with t the somewhat ‘spasmodic ‘ efforts of the FAI to achieve notable success on anything more frequent than a once or twice every 20 years basis and the even less frequent successes of the IFA.
“MMcG ‘s pre political past … McGuinness has been in ‘politics’ since 1969″
Greenflag, you’re tripping over yourself
Martin is not a politician in the conventional meaning of that word. As a senior member of the PRM, he’s a parapolitician taking orders from the PRM’s Army Council. At this moment in time he might or might not be taking orders from, amongst others, himself. The PRM has declared a cessation of certain activities such as murder and destruction but the organised crime and civic justice wings have not been disbanded.
As I stated on another thread gossip from a range of sources indicates that pressure was brought to bear on someone who might have brought a prosecution against a candidate Martin canvassed for. It remains to be seen whether or not a Sunday paper will continue to hold back on that story or whether SF itself will take disciplinary action.
Greenflag
“McGuinness would probably reply that he sees Ireland in the same way as the GAA and the Rugby union and not in the IFA/FAI manner”
Which is his prerogative. But there is no President of that Ireland.
Indeed to pretend there is runs counter to the Good Friday Agreement.
MTF ,
‘But there is no President of that Ireland.’
True .You and I know that as do those who are knowledgeable re the details . however if MMcG is elected SF voters among others will see him as their President much as they saw Mary McAleese . As always the fine legal printwork and constitutional black and whiteness while it has it’s place among the erudite and the bookshelves and amongst the legal eagles etc -somehow doesn’t get translated into the vernacular of vox populi . To the world at large he’ll be seen as President of Ireland just as Mary McAleese and Mary Robinson were . Wherever I’ve been around the world I’ve never heard either McAleese or Robinson being referred to other than as President of Ireland . It’s a point of contention with unionists I understand but they might as well try to get England to start calling itself Eastern Wales -its a no win situation no matter what they do . Ditto for Norris , Davis or Mitchell or anybody else who may get elected.
Nevin ,
‘Martin is not a politician in the conventional meaning of that word.’
I never stated he was and not to be labour the point we are not in ‘conventional ‘ times .If MMcG gets to be President it will be by the votes and second and third and maybe even fourth or more preference votes of the electorate . If elected he’ll take his instructions from the government of the day and if he doesn’t he’ll be forced into resignation or end up doing a Cathal O Dalaigh ‘thundering disgrace ‘ encore.
Somehow I can’t see M McG cornering himself into a point of no return in any fracas with the FG/Lab government but I can imagine that he’ll be bored out of his mind after the first couple of years into a seven year term . Probably not the best sinecure for ex combatants until they reach their mid or late seventies .
‘So who says the cutest hoors in Ireland are all from Dublin’
Doesn’t need saying . Ask any Kerryman since Sunday’s champion Jacks accounted for the mountainy men of the Kingdom
Notes absence of any Ulster GAA comments on slugger blogs -perhaps the success of the rugby world cup win used up any reservoirs of sporting bloggery
Liveline just ran a ten minute text poll and got 20,000 responses. McGuinness won and Norris, who won’t be running, came second.
Surely even if MMG wins, will it not be just transfering a talented politician from a roll in which he has some power to one in which he has none. Any symbolism which can be gained from a President from the North has been achieved by Mary McAlese. If martin can convince the electorate that he can bring Mary’s North-South Bridge building work a stage further then yes he can achieve somthing. If not then What is the point?
Also if he wins I suspect the vote will be for MMG the man and the peace maker not Sinn Fein. I don’t see Mary Lue being able to count on any percentage of the vote which MMG can secure the next time she goes to the Ballot.
Henry,
Such a poll has no value whatsoever. For starters, the responders self identify which means that the committed are more likely to “vote”. Then the pool is limited to those who are at home and listening to the radio. Many will be stay at home mothers and the unemployed.
Diomedes,
Thanks for the link. But I am reliably informed that it involves much work and, as I am inclined to idleness, I have decided not to do it.
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