( This is considerably rewritten in the light of the news that Boris Johnson will make his public pitch tomorrow, Wednesday)
What a depressing business it is to be one of the 60 million plus UK voters looking on while the Conservative leadership candidates go through their hoops. It has little to do with discovering where the real world of Brexit lies. As the Duke of Wellington is supposed to have observed, surveying his troops before Waterloo: ” I don’t know what they do to the enemy but by God they frighten me.”
For candidates, the blunt truth is that campaigning for the leadership is a different exercise from the big encounter with the EU. But it has to be won first and different even contradictory tactics are required. The impact on politicians ‘ wider credibility is ignored.
Between now and next Thursday 20 June at the latest, it’s all about whether two hard line No Dealers, or one no Dealer and one so called Remainer will make it onto the ballot for party members to chose between them and for the whole process to be wrapped up on 20 July.
In personality terms this means a choice to put before the membership between two arch Brexiteers Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab, or Boris Johnson and one principled anti- No Dealer from among the cabinet ministers Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and Sajid Javid, with Hunt – (“Theresa May with smarm”) currently having the edge.
Next Thursday’s choice – before it goes to the membership – is critical. Two hard Brexiteers makes a No Deal departure more likely. One from each side suggests MPs would tolerate a longer search for agreement with a Deal at the end. Johnson will avoid Theresa May’s mistake of negotiating by remote control through a civil servant and isolating herself from the cabinet. If Johnson works for cabinet unity and chooses a cabinet colleague like Jeremy Hunt or even his old nemesis Michael Gove over Dominc Raab, he will be signalling a willingness to compromise on the apparently hard line of his Sunday Times interview.
Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London
