The final poll before an election is a good time to remember the caveats that should be applied to all polling: Margin of error. (In the case of Lucid Talk 2.3%) The time lapse between the poll and the actual vote – during which some voters will change their minds. (In this case three weeks.) The don’t knows – who might swing more one way than the other when they actually vote – if they vote at all. But for …
The latest Lucid Talk poll was published in the Belfast Telegraph this morning, but, as an experiment, I started writing this analysis the evening before. That way it was possible to think about what different results for each party might mean, free from any unconscious influence from knowing the actual figures; which are: Sinn Féin 32% (+3 from last election) DUP 27% (+6) Alliance 15% (+1) UUP 9% (-2) SDLP 7% (-2) TUV 5% (-3) DUP At the Assembly election …
Two party leaders will both be on their knees this morning, earnestly offering up the same plea to the heavens. “Please, please let there be no early Assembly election”. One of them, Colm Eastwood, has no control over the matter. The other, Jeffery Donaldson, has only to say the word for the current Assembly to continue its full term. But he is tortured by the message of this poll which tells him that Jim Allister may not allow him to …
The most unpredictable Assembly election in many years just became more unpredictable, thanks to the latest poll from Lucid Talk. First the published results: SF 26% (-2 compared to Assembly ’17) DUP 19% (-9) Alliance 16% (+5) UUP 13% (n/c) SDLP 11% (-1) TUV 9% (+6) Green 2% (n/c) PBP 2% (n/c) Aontú / Other parties / Independents share 2% (-2) Given that seats won will be roughly proportional to first preference votes cast this would mean that the largest …
That must be the least exciting headline you will read today. But with the poll showing Sinn Féin still sitting on a very healthy lead; the TUV retaining the lumps it carved out of the DUP in a three horse race to be biggest unionist party; and Alliance still poised for significant gains, the pattern is very much the same as it has been throughout most of last year. The full results in today’s Belfast Telegraph are: Sinn Féin 25% …
David McCann is joined by Allison Morris and Sarah Creighton to discuss the politics of Covid-19 regulations, and the latest LucidTalk poll on party preferences. You can turn on subtitles by clicking the CC icon. David McCannDavid McCann holds a PhD in North-South relations from University of Ulster. You can follow him on twitter @dmcbfs
Michael Hehir is a retired sales and marketing manager. He studied in Northern Ireland but now lives between England and Italy. Northern Ireland is still probably heading for an SF FM; there will be no vote to scrap the NI Protocol in the next Assembly; both unionist and nationalist designations will lose seats to Others; and Alliance is still on track to become the third party. These are the main outcomes that would follow if yesterdays Lucid Talk poll for …
A new poll by Lucid Talk for the Belfast Telegraph is showing that the DUP are getting hammering over the Irish Sea Border, with hardline supporters switching allegiance to the TUV: DUP support plunges as hardline unionists flock to Jim Allister amidst Irish Sea border fears. In @LucidTalk poll for @beltel, SF largest party on 24%; DUP on 20-yr low of 19%; Alliance challenging to be 2nd largest party on 18%; & TUV on 10% record high.https://t.co/3AdzLysJrx — Suzanne Breen …
LEADER RATINGS – Back in October, Mike Nesbitt had the highest rating of the five party leaders. Peter Robinson languished behind, only ahead of Alasdair McDonnell. Fast forward five months and two leadership changes later, Arlene Foster is top of the polls. Though much less of a bounce for Colum Eastwood who should be worried that he’s rated alongside Arlene Foster in the eyes of nationalists and barely ahead of David Ford.
Now this is interesting. Eamonn McCann picks out some telling indicators from Lucid Talks conference poll at the DUP meet up at the weekend: In relation to more earthly issues, the attitudes were markedly more progressive than the DUP is generally given credit for. One in eight believed that, ‘Abortion should be available to any woman who chooses it after being counselled on alternatives’ – the exact position of Alliance for Choice and other pro-choice campaigners. Almost two out of …
Okay, I’m coming in late with this, but since its inspired so many off topic comments on other threads, it might be useful to focus on LucidTalk’s short form conference survey at the SDLP conference in a single thread. I’ll let pass the question of how wise it is to let a newspaper do polling that might be better done yourself. Or the fact that a field survey is probably more useful since a properly ‘clubbed’ political party ought to …
Today’s Lucid Talk poll in the Belfast Telegraph should be a wake up call for all politicians in Northern Ireland to up their game. When asked the question, compared to direct rule from Westminster, how would you rate the performance of the NI assembly? Just 9.4% said it was either excellent or good and that falls to 7.4% when you exclude undecideds. This compares badly to the 66.3% who rated the assembly’s performance as not very good or bad. The …
One of things Micheal Martin picked up on in his interview with Conor Bradford yesterday morning was the rather emphatic result of Lucid Talk’s poll in favour of integrated eduction: In the latest Lucid Talk poll those in favour of children of all denominations sharing the same classroom stands at a massive 70%. Tellingly, this figure represents almost identical proportions of Catholics and Protestants. On any other issue this would be accepted as the will of the people and politicians …
Now this is interesting. Though I am not quite sure what it means in reality. Joining the cops is not popular anywhere. Even in relatively quiet areas of England, policemen tend to live slightly separate lives from the rest of us. They see layers of behaviour that the rest of remain apart from or deeply unaware of. In a place like Northern Ireland where to join the police can still make you ‘a legitimate political target’, it is hardly surprising …
