Irish General Election Exit Poll

For reference, rather than predictive qualities, RTÉ’s exit poll records the parties’ first preference vote in the 2011 Irish general election as follows (compared with 2007 result)  [Added Actual 2011 first preference result in bold] Fine Gael 36.1% (27.3%)  36.1% Labour 20.5% (10.1%)  19.4% Fianna Fáil 15.1% (41.6%)  17.4% Independent/Other 15.5% (9.4%)  15.2% Sinn Féin 10.1% (6.9%)  9.9% Greens 2.7% (4.7%)  1.8% Adds  From the Irish Times report The poll of 3,500 voters was carried out yesterday. The margin of error was 2.5 per …

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“Northern Ireland is a virtually irrelevant question in the Republic these days”

As Henry McDonald, in the Belfast Telegraph, notes of the Irish general election Rancour, too, is the order of the day in the secondary battle of this election – the one between Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein to see who comes in third place. The Soldiers of Destiny have turned their firepower on Sinn Fein, raising Gerry Adams’ IRA past, the Northern Bank robbery and the disappearance and murder of Jean McConville. Adams, meanwhile, made a huge gaffe on radio …

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The Irish left set for election surge?

You do get a sense that the next Irish general election, all bets are off. Sinn Fein misfortune last time our, over which some Dublin based journalists taunted them mercilessly after the last election, and Mark Hennessey’s ‘Tallaght effect’ (see link for reference) seem now to be in rapid reverse. The former feel good effect for taxi drivers and new mortgage holders has dissipated and feel good is now feel very bad indeed. So, according to Noel Whelan things are set …

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Odds shorten on Enda as next Taoiseach…

Mark’s rightly focused on a bravura (and extremely well sustained) speech from Pearse Doherty. He made Joan Burton (who was on just before him) look decidedly academic and flat footed. But the other sound performer of the day was Michael Noonan of Fine Gael, whose more relaxed delivery held the attention of the Dail. He has a way of commanding attention that still eludes his party leader. He gets the best heckler put down award when he turned to Paul …

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Is Fianna Fail’s difficulty everyone else’s opportunity?

As Aristotle once remarked, ‘Nature abhors a vacuum’. And the ‘empty space’ at the top of the Irish political game at the moment is the one Taoiseach Brian Cowen should have been occupying for the last two years. A poll in today’s Irish Sun marks a new low point in Cowen’s leadership of his country, and his party who dropped four points on a similar poll conducted just two weeks ago. Fianna Fail now rests at just 13%. It is …

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