GE16 – Page 2 – Slugger O'Toole

Without a credible alternative Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil’s “political Jedward” moment may have to wait…

Mick Fealty on February 23, 2016, 2:08 pm | Readers 573

With a touch of Ganesh’s “discriminating regard for fundamentals” in mind, here’s the most intelligent comment on the likely outcomes of an indecisive election result on Friday since Derek Mooney’s piece for Slugger. This time it’s from Eoin O’Malley. Firstly, political instability is not against any constitutional law that I’ve ever heard of… …the events of 1981/82 show that while governments tend to be formed the ones formed will not always be the most stable option available. Why did we not then …

#GE16 Dublin Bay North: Survival of the fittest in a twenty candidate scramble

Statler and Waldorf on February 22, 2016, 9:49 am | Readers 929

Dublin Bay North Current TDs Dublin North Central Minister for State, Aodhán Ó Riordán (Labour), Minister for Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation, Richard Bruton (Fine Gael), Finian McGrath (Independent) Dublin North East Seán Kenny (Labour), Terence Flanagan (Elected as Fine Gael but now Renua Ireland), Tommy Broughan (Elected as Labour but now Independent for Change) The constituency review amalgamated the old Dublin North East and Dublin North Central three seat constituencies to create a new 5 seat constituency. About 9,500 people …

Into the last week of #GE16 and momentum is with Independents and Fianna Fail…

Mick Fealty on February 22, 2016, 6:51 am | Readers 1185

By the end of this week, the election will have run its full course. And yet it’s clear that the journalists are suffering that usual sense you get in Irish elections that they’re getting shut out of a conversation they aren’t privy to… Richard Downes takes you ‘behind the spin’ with this report tonight. #RTEPThttps://t.co/qeUnaAEqDW — RTÉ Prime Time (@RTE_PrimeTime) February 18, 2016 Another of these surprising constituency polls (-/+5%) came out in the week suggesting that Sinn Fein’s …

Post #GE16 reality: Lashings of false and ultimately unproductive negotiations?

Derek Mooney on February 19, 2016, 10:34 pm | Readers 750

Introduction As we enter into the final week of what has been, so far at least, a flat and turgid election campaign; a few things are becoming increasingly clear. The first, and most important, is that there is no route available for this government to be re-elected. At the start of this campaign I predicted (on Twitter) that Fine Gael would win about 62 seats and Labour would get 15 or so. With these numbers and the help of a …

#GE16 Sligo Leitrim: Rendered unpredictable by the John Perry legal action…

Statler and Waldorf on February 18, 2016, 3:34 pm | Readers 848

SLIGO LEITRIM: A new (four) two county constituency which looks set to give Leitrim back a TD at least. Inclusion of bits of Donegal and Cavan mean there will be strong geographical trend in the transfers. Look out for recrimination in Fine Gael if the three candidate strategy backfires.

After its bias towards SF and Labour in 2011 RTÉ is sticking to regulations for #GE16

Mick Fealty on February 18, 2016, 1:01 pm | Readers 798

GAMING RTÉ: Sinn Féin is unhappy with the coverage it gets on RTÉ. The national broadcaster is obliged to provide proportionate coverage to all parties. Given a detailed report of GE2011 indicated a heavy bias towards SF and Labour, it is likely the party is just suffering a sharp corrective.

Latest Polls: Rise of ‘independents and others’ may make Ireland ungovernable for years

Mick Fealty on February 17, 2016, 10:04 am | Readers 1293

So two polls yesterday. One, a national one for Red C which seems to unwind the apparent progress for Sinn Fein and drops the Fine Gael party just a little closer to that bulging political peloton in the bottom twenties… A further fall in support for Fine Gael in the latest Red C poll for @IrishSunOnline #GE16 pic.twitter.com/937777rfy0 — Fergal O’Brien TV3 (@FergalOBrienTV3) February 16, 2016 With don’t knows squeezed to 9% very few are being drawn to support any …

What do the Southern parties have planned for Northern Ireland?

David McCann on February 15, 2016, 7:07 pm | Readers 3031

There’s an election on in the South in case you hadn’t noticed. Whilst yes, the North plays a little role in determining the outcome of an Irish election and the interest from Northern Ireland has hardly been great, I thought that since we now have the manifestos of the main parties out there now, it would be interesting to see what plans each of them have for the North. You will be relieved to know that in all of the …

“inability to fashion political approaches sufficient to resonate with the Irish electorate”

Mick Fealty on February 15, 2016, 11:42 am | Readers 340

Strong analysis from World By Storm on both government party’s woes in selling to the electorate… the issue is deeper than the anything but simple Dáil arithmetic. It is about perception, and an understanding of how policies impact on the broader society. It struck me long ago that FG and – most particularly – the LP were remarkably cloth-eared in regard to their situation and those whose support they would ultimately require. Perhaps they were taken in by the siren voices …

#GE Week 2: “Bogged down in heavy, substantive but important issues…”

Mick Fealty on February 15, 2016, 10:50 am | Readers 344

Into week two, and the Red C poll is welcome for Sinn Fein in a week when the media flipped from eating out of their hand on ‘the fiscal space’ to eating them alive over an outbreak of violence between two Dublin crime families. Frankly it’s been hard to comment further with any consistency or coherence despite the tumult of talk on TV, radio and podcasts. As Martina Fitzgerald put in on Friday’s Morning Ireland up until last Thursday’s debate the southern election “had been bogged down in heavy, …

Joan and Gerry flunk Irish language debate, Enda says no thanks to Micheál…

Mick Fealty on February 15, 2016, 12:08 am | Readers 2293

Really, I’m not joking. Honestly, one minute there was going to be a four way debate. Now, at the very last minute, there’s not even going to be one. And here’s how it happened, blow by blow according to the Irish Times… …the proposal ran to ground after Labour offered Minister of State Aodhán Ó Ríordáin, a fluent speaker, as a substitute, and Sinn Féin suggestedPearse Doherty, a native speaker from Gweedore in the Donegal Gaeltacht. The proposal was not acceptable to …

#GE16 Tipperary: Fine Gael and Fianna Fail run three candidates chasing one seat each…

Statler and Waldorf on February 12, 2016, 3:12 pm | Readers 1333

EPIC BATTLE: Labour’s Alan Kelly using every available opportunity to get into the press no matter what the consequences to the national Labour campaign. The bitterest of Fianna Fáil bloodbaths for the one seat available to the party. Michael Lowry to top the poll of the whole county.

TV3 Vote 2016: Post leaders’ debate chat…

Mick Fealty on February 11, 2016, 9:12 pm | Readers 719

POST DEBATE CHAT: Join David and Mick after the live on TV3 Leaders debate from 10.30 onwards. You can watch here on Slugger or bounce over to Blab.im and put in your own tuppence happenny worth…

Is this the end of the line for Joan?

David McCann on February 11, 2016, 8:56 am | Readers 1008

Today’s Independent is not happy reading for the Labour leader, Joan Burton. A poll in her Dublin West constituency finds her struggling to hold on to her seat with the election just two weeks away. The results are; Leo Varadkar (FG) and Paul Donnelly (SF) on 20% each. Jack Chambers is on 17% for Fianna Fáil and Ruth Coppinger is on 15% for the AAA. Joan Burton trails on 10%. Worth pointing out 14% of the electorate are still undecided …

#Ge16 The Goss – Wednesday 10 February

Johnny Fallon on February 10, 2016, 8:52 pm | Readers 368

Sinn Fein Court woes, FF war in Roscommon, FG’s Health worries and Independents searching for their moment….It’s all the goss from #ge16

TG4’s #GE16 Donegal poll strikes a sour note for Sinn Fein’s primed public expectations…

Mick Fealty on February 9, 2016, 11:02 pm | Readers 1214

Not quite sure what Sinn Fein’s thoughts were on how it pitched their third candidate as a realistic contender for a seat. But a poll released this evening (with +/- 5% error margin) by TG4 suggests what our constituency profilers spotted: ie, that it was never a realistic bid in this election. Donegal Constituency Individual Candidate Support (Number 1 Preference Vote) Pearse Doherty (SF) 19% Charlie McConalogue (FF) 17% Joe McHugh (FG) 13% Pat the Cope Gallagher (FF) 13% Pádraig …

#GE16 Wicklow – Sinn Féin to power through one of Ireland’s more motley fields…

Statler and Waldorf on February 9, 2016, 5:35 pm | Readers 1235

Wicklow Current TDs Stephen Donnelly TD (Social Democrats), Anne Ferris TD (Labour), Billy Timmins TD (Renua), Minister of State, Simon Harris TD (Fine Gael), Andrew Doyle (Fine Gael) Total seats in 2016 General Election: 5 This constituency remains unchanged by the most recent review and consists of the county of Wicklow and a couple of thousand people from east Carlow around the villages of Hackettstown and Rathvilly. Main Areas: Bray – population 31,872 Greystones – population 17,468 Arklow – population 13,009 …

#GE16 Dublin North-West: Final seat a game of Finglas/Ballymun musical chairs…

Statler and Waldorf on February 8, 2016, 5:38 pm | Readers 735

Dublin North-West Current TDs Roisin Shortall, Social Democrats (elected as Labour Party) John Lyons TD, Labour Dessie Ellis TD, Sinn Féin Total seats in 2016 General Election: 3 The boundary review added about 11,500 people to this constituency from Drumcondra and areas near the Botanic Gardens that were formerly in Dublin Central. Main Areas: Drumconrda, Finglas, Ballymun, Whitehall, Glasnevin, Santry Candidates: Dessie Ellis TD, Sinn Féin Cllr. Cathleen Carney Boud, Sinn Féin Ms. Caroline Conroy, Green Party Mr. Jimmy …

#GE16: Phony fiscal space arguments and Sinn Fein’s centerist tack towards ‘sound money’ policies

Mick Fealty on February 8, 2016, 5:18 pm | Readers 697

On Friday the radio decibels were ringing with the idea that somehow Fine Gael, Labour and Fianna Fail were ‘cooking the books’, as Sinn Fein finance spokesperson Pearse Doherty put it. What a coup for the party long dismissed as economic illiterates? The Journal declared Sinn Fein the unequivocal winner after the party showed them what appeared to be an endorsement of its view of how big the, erm Fiscal Space actually is. However, the truth as Sean Whelan of RTE later …

#GE16 – The Goss

Johnny Fallon on February 8, 2016, 8:57 am | Readers 816

Enda’s blitz, FF poster joy, Independent plans……all the goss from #GE16