EU – Page 62 – Slugger O'Toole

Your Print Off and Keep Guide to Following Tally Information in the Irish Stability Pact Referendum

Gerry Lynch on May 31, 2012, 10:25 pm

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Voters in the Republic went to the polls for a referendum on EU related issues today for the third time in 4 years. Although polls have just closed, the result will probably not be announced until well into Friday afternoon. However, those involved in the various campaigns will have a sense of how the result is shaping up from mid-morning. With my handy print off and keep guide, you can keep track of how the tallymen’s estimates compare with the …

Ranking the winners and losers of #EUREF2012?

Mick Fealty on May 31, 2012, 2:29 pm

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So before the actual result of the Referendum on the Fiscal Treaty is announced, here’s a run down of how I think each of the parties have fared. It’s less a beauty line up, and more an attempt to grade them in terms of how they have managed to improve their positioning as a result. Finally, you’ll be relieved to hear, that I don’t expect everyone to agree with me. In fact, I’d welcome your own grading of the parties performances with …

#EUref: Great editorials are built on great journalism: Ireland’s desperate choice…

Mick Fealty on May 31, 2012, 12:28 pm

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I don’t always see eye to eye with the Guardian newspaper. For one thing, their line between comment and news is often a little too blurred for my tastes [But you run a bloody blog! – Ed] Yes, but, well I’ve come to praise the Grauniad, not to bury it. Those of you who’ve been following Pete’s tight commentary on the Euro crisis, will have noted frequent references to their Eurozone crisis live blog. That blog has done almost exactly …

Bilderberg 2012: “Are you here for the brunch?”

Pete Baker on May 30, 2012, 6:01 pm

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The Guardian’s Charlie Skelton is in Chantilly, Virginia, ahead of the, whisper it, annual Bilderberg conference – “a small, flexible, informal and off-the-record international forum in which different viewpoints can be expressed and mutual understanding enhanced”. As he says at the Big G’s US News blog Everything’s set. The hotel is being primped and hoovered, the security is arriving, the press is nowhere to be seen, and I just had a really boring crab salad. It’s shaping up to be a vintage Bilderberg. …

#EUREF: “But if you want to make a decision you’ll be happy to stand over?”

Mick Fealty on May 30, 2012, 3:49 pm

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Uncertainty is the principle by which a lot of politics is conducted. I read an argument somewhere on the FT sites comment zone today as to why people are talking about figures that govern inflation and deflation when it is possible to calculate and mircocalculate down to much finer detail. Regarding the European Referendum Joe Humphries argues that when faced with a question that combines complexity and uncertainty… …people unconsciously substitute it with an easier question and answer that one …

Do the govt need a No vote in #euref…

John Ó Néill on May 30, 2012, 1:06 am

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..and, to provide similar political cover, does the No side need a Yes vote? The only thing that is clear from the lead-up to the referendum on Thursday is that neither the changing political and economic context of the Austerity/Stabilitytreaty nor it’s relatively bland content has really generated much energy, despite the ramifications of ratification. The value of referenda has been disputed on here before. Indeed, Minister of State Leo Varadkar suggested that referenda were not democratic at the start of the campaign, as he: …

It is possible to put a precise figure in euro of the effects the so-called “austerity treaty”. Zero.

Mick Fealty on May 29, 2012, 11:52 am

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The problem with any referendum is the need both sides always feel to exaggerate the importance of whatever binary is involved. In the case of the Fiscal Compact it is clear that most of the decisions have already been taken both in principle and practice by democratically elected governments and the measure is nowhere near a solution to the ongoing problem(s): …one of the striking features of the referendum campaign has been the strenuous efforts made by the No side …

Sinn Fein buying up capital at the bottom of the Irish political market…

Mick Fealty on May 28, 2012, 10:06 am

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So once again, Sinn Fein is sitting pretty in the polls. The Irish Times poll puts them on an unprecedented high, of 24%. Labour are down to 10%, which is roughly their lowest margin in the period between 2002 and the onset of the recession in the summer of 2008. The hard core of the Labour vote remains with them, but the protest vote (which contains a sizeable chunk of former Fianna Fail voters) they gained in the last general …

Eurovision 2012: “Good luck on your journey, Azerbaijan!”

Pete Baker on May 27, 2012, 11:29 pm

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Mark Lawson on the Eurovision Song Contest 2012 in Azerbaijan – “the most politicised contest yet.” [Apart from the one in 1974? – Ed] Indeed. Back to Mark Lawson. Tensions between several of the core participants had been raised by the possible exit of Greece from the stricken eurozone and, increasing the volume of disharmony to Jedward levels, BBC news and current affairs programmes have run several reports questioning the suitability of the host nation because of Azerbaijan’s record of …

Fiscal Treaty Referendum: “the outcome is still in the hands of undecided voters”

Pete Baker on May 27, 2012, 12:36 pm

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Worth noting the result of the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll of voting intentions in Ireland’s European fiscal treaty referendum on Thursday. From the Irish Times report Asked how they were likely to vote on the treaty, 39 per cent of voters said Yes, 30 per cent said No, 22 per cent said they did not know, and 9 per cent said they would not be voting. When the 31 per cent of undecided and non-voters are excluded, support for the Yes side …

Krugman: Prospect of Euro collapse might concentrate their minds…

Mick Fealty on May 26, 2012, 8:15 am

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Perhaps this is what the No campaign is hoping for? Krugman interviewed in the FT: “No. I don’t think they can save Greece but they can still save the rest if they’re willing to offer open-ended financing and macroeconomic expansion.” But this would mean persuading the Germans to change their philosophy of economic life. “Well, the prospect of hanging concentrates the mind; the prospect of a collapse of the euro might concentrate their minds.” Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of …

Euro crisis: “Rome wasn’t built in a day and it didn’t fall in a day either…”

Pete Baker on May 25, 2012, 3:21 pm

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The eurozone crisis rumbles on, its democratic deficit intact, and Ireland’s Fiscal Treaty referendum approaches. Time, then, for historian Michael Wood to go looking for some historical references… The British historian Gildas (c 500-570) in his diatribe against contemporary rulers in the early 500s, looking back over the story of the Fall of Roman Britain, lists the military failures, but behind them he speaks bitterly of a loss of nerve and direction, a failure of “group feeling”. Gildas talks about …

#Euref: Underlying questions too big for a simple Yes or a No. What about a ‘Not Yes’?

Mick Fealty on May 25, 2012, 12:10 pm

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Last night’s avalanche of advocacy for the NO campaign on Vincent Browne was remarkable. Watch it though, especially for Sigrun Davidsdottir‘s remarks on why Ireland is not Iceland that seemed not to come to the notice of our eponymous host. Hint: neither includes the fact that Ireland is hemmed in by the EU, nor that Iceland is blessed with endless quantities of valuable natural resources. So first, try this fascinating little vignette on P.ie on why you might question one …

#Euro2020: Philosophy Fooball Solidarnosc Ireland tee shirts…

Mick Fealty on May 24, 2012, 11:19 am

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Another offering from our old mates at Philosphy Football (who previously brought you this, oh yes, and this little controversial number). So if you are dedicated FAI or bust supporter, or an any green will do man/woman/boy/child… Whether you are on your way to Poland where they’ve got to go down a storm with the locals or your are staying at home with lots of tinies, be my guest!! Way cheaper than replica… Declaration: I’ve not been promised a free …

Euro crisis: “With that we buried the Maastricht Treaty, the legal basis for currency union”

Pete Baker on May 22, 2012, 3:32 pm

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A couple of interesting reports in the Irish Times with relevance to the ongoing euro crisis. First, from Derek Scally in Berlin …Mr Asmussen, a member of the ECB governing council, said growth measures – agreed without reopening the fiscal treaty – could help drive European integration. “The benefits of a currency union are so outstanding that they should be stabilised by deepening, which means a fiscal union and banking union as well as a democratic legitimised political union,” said …

Trouble at t’Mill for Frau Nein?

Gerry Lynch on May 21, 2012, 11:33 pm

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With most major developed economies struggling badly since 2008, Germany has seemed to be the calm centre of everything. The leader of any other industrialised country would pinch themselves if they had to deal with Angela Merkel’s problems. Germany shrugged off double-dip recession fears in late 2011 as its economy powered ahead again in 2012. Germany’s unemployment rate declined to 7% in May, its lowest level since shortly after reunification. Labour market reforms have fuelled growth in relatively insecure service …

#EUREF: Real political price of the Treaty is “shift from community to union”…

Mick Fealty on May 21, 2012, 4:21 pm

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Very good piece in the Irish Times today by John O’Brennan of NUI Maynooth, on the scale and dimensions of the democratic deficit that attaches to the Fiscal Compact… In effect he argues that it will dramatically sideline European Commission where smaller countries like Ireland can at least broker some national influence on the EU: It is important to point out that the fiscal treaty represents a dramatically significant break with the existing EU governance architecture. Chancellor Merkel, in particular, …

Euro crisis: “the quadriga is a perfect symbol of how confused and contested that project has become”

Pete Baker on May 20, 2012, 10:11 pm

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Tim Garton Ash asked, “Who wishes to address the assembly?“. Will Self has a point of view on the euro crisis and the European Project’s democratic deficit. You can listen to his Radio 4 Point of View here. From the accompanying BBC Magazine article That these same politicians were afflicted by a strange sort of doublethink – both aspiring towards unity, and desperate for their own nationalistic electorates to preserve the substance of their sovereignties – was and is the …

Euro crisis: When “earth’s proud empires pass away”…

Mick Fealty on May 19, 2012, 8:26 am

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Andrew Roberts in the FT with a little touch of cold realism on the Euro crisis. He also picks out the underlying political and economic problem here, and advises the EU to prepare for a big bang he argues springs from a federalist overreach of the original Treaty of Rome that never fitted such an enlarged area: …here we are in the endgame, and it is certainly not all right. Greece has now lost almost a quarter of its gross …

Euro crisis: “Tis agoreuein bouletai?”

Pete Baker on May 17, 2012, 8:02 pm

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At the Guardian’s Comment is Free, Tim Garton Ash is still a believer in the European Project but, probably, not an optimistic one. As well as mentioning a familiar quote from Luxembourg’s Prime Minister he makes an important point, as Greece faces a democratic choice, again, that applies to the wider euro crisis. From the Comment is Free article Greece’s untold, or only half-told, home truth is that its only alternatives now are bad, worse or worst. Worst is clearly an unplanned, chaotic exit from the …