Next up in our 2015 general election series is former advisor John McTernan on what Labour needs to do to win next year. There is no real secret to winning elections. Be united, have popular ideas and connect to the public. As Ronald Reagan used to say, ‘It’s not easy, but it is simple.’ Against the odds, Ed Miliband has achieved the first, and done it effortlessly. After a lengthy and divisive leadership campaign – which he won …
There is nothing new about the idea of federalism in Britain. Early last century a Cabinet sub-committee was tasked with drafting a Bill for a federal UK, in an attempt to deal with the Irish question. Federalism has long been a Liberal, then Liberal Democrat, objective. In recent months the idea has attracted more interest, as a possible way forward should Scotland vote No in September’s independence referendum. At its core, federalism is the belief that sovereignty is entrenched at …
As we approach the general election next May, Slugger will be hosting a series of articles looking at the chances of each of the main parties next year. Writing for us on the Conservatives is the former Deputy Chairman and pollster, Lord Ashcroft. Since I stepped down as the Conservatives’ Deputy Chairman in 2010 my role has been that of the pollster, not the strategist. I set out the lie of the land as objectively as I can; what the …
The local elections in England provide a fascinating glimpse into the way that newspapers interact with electoral politics. Take a look at today’s the front pages; “The Savaging of Red Ed” says the Mail. “Surge by UKIP throws Labour into poll crisis” says the Telegraph. UKIP’s share of the vote actually fell this year. We can argue about how this is partly due to a feeble UKIP performance in London (London wasn’t polled last year) but even then, this is …
The difference between before and after the Scottish referendum is as fundamental and unknowable as the black hole between life and death. Yet the fate of the Union may depend on what people believe now about what may happen then, in that currently unknowable state. With the polls narrowing near the point of cross over, London- based politicians and commentators are at last stirring themselves, the Conservative commentator and ex-MP Matthew Parris in the Times (£) being the latest in assuming a torrid fall-out from …
Signs are emerging that the Westminster village, which usually treats north of Hampstead Heath as terra incognita, is at last waking up to the real threat of Scottish independence. The contrast couldn’t be starker between the obsession of the English right wing with a phantom referendum over Europe and the real one in Scotland that is almost upon us. The Times (£) reports pressure on David Cameron to ban Scottish candidates from the 2015 General election if Scotland votes Yes in …
NOW this is interesting. James Kirkup at the Telegraph broke the news last night that as well as having its manifesto writen by five old Etonians (and one former pupil of St Pauls, and I don’t mean the one in Beechmount!), the Tories will be going into the next election determined not go into coalition. Bold move by the Cameroons. Though as Mike from Political Betting notes, it is one that could swing both ways. It would certainly clear the …
So Labour is drifting, according to the polls. The Observer yesterday put some bones on to why that may be happening. Or rather it explained why to some extent there is no real substance to Labour’s UK opposition… Today’s Opinium/Observer poll shows Labour dropping three percentage points from two weeks ago to 36%, taking its lead over the Tories to only seven points. Some senior figures in the party suggest that Labour’s silence for much of the summer is symptomatic of …
The vast majority of the analysis of the Eastleigh byelection has centred round the failure of the Conservative Party and the success of UKIP. Essentially the analysis seems to be that the Conservative Party has not been right wing enough and most of the prescriptions for it have been to move to the right on social and probably economic issues. The other which is repeatedly raised along with this issue is the disconnect between the political class elite and the …
There was a little spat last week, in the midst of Britain’s gold rush at the Olympics, the two men at the heart of government abandoned their attempt to reform the House of Lords (a Tory redline). In revenge, the LibDems cut their commitment to cut the number of seats in the Commons The Economist thinks it was a mistake both may come to rue: …the coalition is now far weaker. By trying to defuse rebellions in their own parties, …
Who would be in the poor UUP? Alex Kane noted in the Belfast Telegraph on Wednesday, it is the gift to journalists that just keeps on giving, regardless of who is in charge. And the new leader does not have his troubles to seek: The problem is that there is no sign of the better policies, better organisation, or the better communications. Indeed, an opinion poll in the Belfast Telegraph last week put the UUP – at 11% – on …
This morning the Conservatives launched in Northern Ireland [what, again? – Ed] Yes, they’re NI Conservatives now rather than Conservatives NI. Now, where was I? Oh yes. There were a few names there, many of them former (unelected) supporters of the UCU-NF. Yesterday however it was the DUP rather than the local Tories who caught the attention of Conservative Home when four of their number voted with Conservatives on a vote of no confidence (and against Labour and the Lib …
The backlash to the Labour gains in the council elections seems to be continuing. Some such as William Hague have tired to write the election results off as a typical mid term result (and to be fair although good for Labour they were not a Tory melt down) but others are more concerned. The results have fed into the narrative of the omnishambles and the fear appears to be amongst Tory MPs that a vicious circle of increasing disaster, increasing …
The coalition have been having a few weeks of pretty bad media storms. There was the fuel crisis that never was when the government in trying to make people prepare for a possible crisis managed to create one. The government may have thought they were preparing themselves like a mini version of the Thatcher governments preparations for taking on the miners. In reality the government actually did the tanker drivers propaganda for them demonstrating how bad a strike might be: …
Noel Whelan’s op ed piece is an intelligent structural rip from Tim Bale’s address to the recent Fianna Fail Ard Fheis on lessons to be drawn from the Tory come back after more than 13 years in the political wilderness.. Professor Bale was drawing on his recent study The Conservative Party: From Thatcher to Cameron… As Whelan suggests there are lessons here for all former incumbent parties here, north as well as south… You should really read the whole thing… …
The Dissenter has a got a nice piece breaking down the latest ruction inside the Northern Ireland Conservatives… He exams the case being made by some for changing the name of the party, and concludes: The electorate is not stupid and will look for substance over presentation, a unity of purpose in moving forward and a principle and policy that is coherent, credible and meaningful to them by values (usually historical/familial), present circumstances and future aspiration for themselves and their …
There are two types of Government consultation. There is the kind of consultation that provides people with a background on a specific issue, enables people to respond to Option A, B, C, etc, so that the general public respond accordingly with A, B, or C or with perhaps some written submission, and then the Government responds accordingly. The other sort of consultation is the one in which a general briefing is provided by Department X within a narrow perspective, which …
Ken Clarke has a reputation as one of the most formidable politicians of the past twenty years. He is also a bit more popular than many Tories amongst many in the media due his seemingly more liberal views, his eminent quote-ability and maybe his penchant for brown suede shoes. He has, however, also a bit of a reputation for gaffes. Whilst Health Secretary in the late 1980s he denied that junior doctors worked excessive hours and claimed they were lying …
As the frontlines in Libya have swayed back and forth, just as they did almost seventy years ago, so the advisability of David Cameron’s foreign policy adventure has ebbed and flowed. Before Cameron became Prime Minister, the Conservative Party was markedly cautious about an interventionalist foreign policy and said that their foreign policy would: “promote human rights, economic liberalism and political freedom, with humanitarian intervention when it is necessary and when it can be effective”. When he became Prime Minister …
After a 30 year absence from electoral politics the IRSP have announced they will be fielding 5 Council candidates. (though one has been running as an independent recently) Unfortunately their greeness seems to have resulted in the same strap line as that of the Conservatives and Ulster Unionists a mere 10 months ago – Vote for Change. They also state: We have deliberately chosen to not contest the Stormont elections as there does not exist an appetite within our …
