Brexit – Page 45 – Slugger O'Toole

A time to press for Irish unity or a time to stay cool?

Brian Walker on September 14, 2016, 12:18 pm

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In contrast with Chris Donnelly’s reasoned case and the speculation that Fianna Fail may at last organise in the North, herewith Newton Emerson’s latest in the Irish Times The Troubles generation was marked by an almost total collapse in the unionist sense of Irishness, which is usually explained as a reaction to republican violence. However, I do not believe this alone can account for the extent to which I do not feel Irish in the slightest. I think it is …

“Giving meaning to Brexit”

Brian Walker on September 9, 2016, 9:34 am

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The best article I’ve read so far on the UK government’s approach to Brexit has been written by Andrew Tyrie MP, the chairman of the Treasury Select Committee for the think tank Open Europe. Problems for preserving an open border are clear if the UK leaves the customs union. But without doing so the UK cannot negotiate free trade deals with other countries. On the other hand, the analysis leaves open the possibility of an otherwise close relationship with the …

Message for the divided politicians. Read the long list. This is what really matters over Brexit.

Brian Walker on September 3, 2016, 6:53 pm

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Divisions in the Executive and the Assembly contributed to the lack of scenario planning for the referendum outcome and are inhibiting the development of a clear Brexit strategy. These are among the conclusions in a comprehensive briefing paper prepared for the Centre for Peace Building and Democracy ( chair Lord Alderdice) by Queen’s academics Professor David Phinnemore and Dr. Lee McGowan, entitled Establishing the Best Outcome for Northern Ireland. ‘Notoriously, similar strictures apply to Whitehall and Westminster, But party divisions …

David Davis’s bland assurances on an open border reveal only poverty of thinking. Where is the cunning plan?

Brian Walker on September 2, 2016, 11:34 am

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In his flying visit to Belfast yesterday, the Brexit Secretary David Davis failed to square the circle of pledging to keep an open border and controlling immigration. He seemed to equate an open border with the common travel area which of course predates EU membership. But they are not the same thing. In the old days international non-Irish immigration barely existed. The border was also a tariff wall of varying heights from 1923 onwards. While the DUP’s verdict on Arlene …

Big effort is needed to avoid polarising Brexit along Orange and Green lines

Brian Walker on September 1, 2016, 1:17 pm

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Yesterday Theresa May made it clear that while the devolved administrations will be consulted the decisions on Brexit will be taken by the UK government. The triggering of Article 50 will not require parliamentary consent and it will happen probably in January or February next year. A Norway-type deal looks ruled out because it entails free movement of people. Some immigration controls are a requirement for what Downing St is calling a “ bespoke “ solution for the UK. And …

Former top civil servant O’Donnell has a viable vision of Remain

Brian Walker on August 27, 2016, 10:54 am

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Former Remain supporters of the moderate tendency have gained a powerful ally in Gus O’Donnell the former UK Cabinet Secretary. The role is recognised as the fountainhead of Making It Happen in government – or explaining to ministers why it can’t happen. It’s all the more important at such a politically volatile time. In an interview with the Times (£) he gives his thoughts on referendums and the massive difficulties of disengaging from the EU ( “years and years”). He …

Revived plan to scrap the Human Rights Act adds fuel to the fires of Brexit controversy

Brian Walker on August 23, 2016, 11:13 am

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The surprising recommitment of the new UK Justice Secretary Liz Truss to a new British Bill of Rights to replace the Human Rights Act adds a new complexity to the Brexit debate. If there are disagreements over the legitimacy of applying the Brexit referendum result to Northern Ireland and Scotland, there can be none about the central importance of the HRA to the Good Friday Agreement. Yes it’s true that the HRA is not part of the EU but EU …

Why is Martin McGuinness making a stand on ” remain must remain” the obvious loser, whatever happens with Article 50?

Brian Walker on August 20, 2016, 1:14 pm

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Martin McGuinness appears to have reverted to Brexit fundamentalism in an article in the Irish Times. He describes a worst case scenario, “ the biggest constitutional crisis since partition…and insists that “Remain must mean remain.” From our perspective, what is needed now is an island-wide approach to dealing with this crisis. That is why Sinn Féin called on the Taoiseach to establish an all-Ireland forum to discuss the impact of the referendum, to develop strategies and options to ensure that …

An answer to Rentoul. Referendums like terrorism can shape events, but not always in the ways expected

Brian Walker on August 19, 2016, 6:40 pm

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Alerted by Mick on the thoughts on referendums by the Independent’s political commentator John Rentoul, I took in his part 2 “Should Referendums be banned?” This is a rhetorical question which is really in support of Rentoul’s contention that they make very little difference to the course of political events. His pieces prompted my following thoughts. Referendums like terrorism typically make considerable differences but not necessarily as intended. It is not true they never settle anything. It depends on the …

Well Mairtin it’s a start!

Brian Walker on August 13, 2016, 11:45 am

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From the Irish Times. EU structural and investment projects in Northern Ireland signed before the British chancellor of the exchequer’s autumn statement will be guaranteed after Brexit, the Treasury in London has said. The current level of agricultural backing, which underpins the farming industry, will also be matched by the British government until 2020. Europe’s programme for entrenching the peace process through community development is due to run until 2020. The future of a programme designed to pump €17 million …

Finance Minister says NI left out of Brexit negotiations: UK Gov won’t underwrite current EU funding for NI

Alan Meban (Alan in Belfast) on August 12, 2016, 1:15 pm

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Talking at this morning’s Big Ideas: Festival of Economics at NICVA, Finance Minister Máirtín Ó Muilleoir indicated that Northern Ireland was being left out of post-Brexit decision making in London. He also felt it was likely the British Government would not underwrite the “half of” current EU INTERREG and PEACE funding, adding that he expected farm payments would “fall off a cliff in 2020”.

United approach to Brexit? Well done, Arlene and Martin.

Brian Walker on August 11, 2016, 12:41 pm

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Rather out of the blue, this joint letter from Arlene Foster and Martin McGuinness to the prime minister Theresa May changes the impression of a divided Executive heading for a fresh stand-off and is to be warmly welcomed. It is artfully couched in calling for no weakening of cross border measures to deal with crime and implies that border posts could create targets for dissident republicans and others – points that will hit home with the former home secretary. It …

In overestimating Brexit’s short term effects, we underestimate it in the long run.

Mick Fealty on August 1, 2016, 2:45 pm

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I’m mostly lying low and sticking to Twitter through the summer holidays. But William of Here’s How podcast caught up with me last week to ask me what I thought the consequences of Brexit would be for NI. This was before the latest Scottish poll was announced showing that the EU appears to be as unpopular with Yes voters as it is with No voters from the first IndyRef. So there will be no plain sailing towards the UK exit. …

With Brexit fever, lies,lies and damned polls

Brian Walker on July 30, 2016, 4:30 pm

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Lucid Talk have been conducting a curious self selecting exercise in the Belfast Telegraph and finding that, as Lucid Talk’s Bill White explains, “The poll is currently running at 75% Yes to a border poll, and 70% Yes to a United Ireland, and I don’t need to tell you that common sense, and history, tells us that this is obviously not representative of Northern Ireland. Polling companies like ours are ‘easy’ with these ‘self-selecting’ polls as they’re known – i.e. …

Solving the border issue is recognised as an argument against a clean break with the EU

Brian Walker on July 29, 2016, 10:02 am

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Although it’s firmly orientated to business and high finance, the Financial Times (£) concludes in an editorial that the British-Irish relationship should put a brake on the extreme Brexiteers who favour a clean break from the EU. Both sides have much to lose. Without the support of its outsized neighbour, Dublin may now find itself more isolated in Brussels on EU issues such as tax harmonisation, which it opposes. Although Ireland’s economy is less dependent on the UK than it …

Immigration less of a problem, trade and customs more so, as Liam Fox rules out a customs Union with the EU. But Theresa and Enda think they see how to keep the border open

Brian Walker on July 26, 2016, 12:43 pm

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One of the leading authorities on EU affairs Charles Grant, the director of the centre for European Reform has issued this warning: When it comes to economic ties, the 27 will be much tougher than many Britons expect. European leaders have an interest in ensuring that the EU maintains a close economic relationship with the UK, for everyone’s benefit. But they will not compromise on fundamental principles, such as free movement of labour as the price for single market membership. …

O’Leary’s Dalriada proposal keeps Northern Ireland and Scotland in the UK and the EU

Brian Walker on July 26, 2016, 9:05 am

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The political scientist Professor Brendan O’Leary is one of the strongest supporters of power sharing in Northern Ireland and an deviser of political solutions to ethnic conflict throughout the world. On leave from Pennsylvania University and an old boy of St Macnissi’s Garron Tower, he has produced the Dalriada Document – inspired by the ancient North Antrim- west of Scotland kingdom. The Dalriada document is an ingenious attempt to square the circle of keeping Scotland and Northern Ireland in both …

An immigration breakthrough on Brexit points to a solution to the hard border problem

Brian Walker on July 24, 2016, 10:24 am

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If it transpires, the Observer’s story on the EU granting the UK an exemption on free movement for EU citizens could be a breakthrough. How could an immigration cap solve the problem of a hard border? On the face of it, it would make it worse. But if Ireland would join the exemption and agree an immigration cap with the UK based on estimates of the need for EU and non- EU workers, the issue of a hard border disappears. …

Faint hopes only for a second Brexit referendum

Brian Walker on July 22, 2016, 10:49 am

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Jeremy Corbyn’s challenger Owen Smith (once the smooth and effective special adviser to Secretary of State Paul Murphy) has offered a second referendum or a general election to ratify any Brexit deal. What, you hadn’t noticed? His offer has so far been buried in the controversy over the leadership challenge. Let’s see how it plays in the leadership campaign over the summer. Only Dominic Grieve the former Attorney General has surfaced for a second referendum among leading Conservatives. Adds later …

Remain campaign a victim of it’s own left liberal conceits?

Mick Fealty on July 20, 2016, 1:43 pm

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A couple of thoughtful pieces to throw into the melee post-referendum. First Tim Harford in today’s FT… Here are four tenets of the trendy centre-left of British politics: first, soaring inequality means that ordinary people haven’t shared in the benefits of economic growth; second, rich people and big companies don’t pay taxes; third, gross domestic product (GDP) is a statistic that misses what really counts; and finally, economists are reliably wrong. It’s really interesting to look at how these tenets …