The Agreement can only be amended with cross-community support

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Eyebrows were raised on the 2nd October when Arlene Foster commented that the Good Friday Agreement wasn’t sacrosanct, hinting that she would like to amend it to accommodate Brexit. Her words been praised but also widely condemned. Leo Varadkar responded by saying that “the Good Friday Agreement is not up for renegotiation” in the Dail. Anyone paying close attention will notice that Foster’s comments are very similar to statements made by her party colleagues, Jim Allister and Jamie Bryson over the …

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Don’t let Arlene cause panic. The GFA isn’t dead, only sleeping and will acquire new life

When Arlene Foster said the GFA wasn’t  “sacrosanct” was she deliberately provoking a fit of the jitters? What did she mean? The Irish Times had no doubts:        The apparent attempt by Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Arlene Foster to undermine the Belfast Agreement in pursuit of a hardline strategy on Brexit is ill-considered and dangerous. It would appear that the DUP is actively pursuing a policy designed to ensure the restoration of the hardest possible border on the island regardless of the consequences for living …

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May’s team claim to find flexibility in DUP demand for legal guarantees for no checks ever in the Irish Sea

This is a running story .. Latest at 22.53 The FT leads with  DUP puts May on notice over Brexit backstop Arlene Foster tweeted defiantly: Meeting with Prime Minister just ended. NO border in the Irish Sea will ever be acceptable to unionists throughout the UK . . . regulatory or otherwise. Government sources claim there must be just enough wriggle room created by new time limits. But are they deceiving themselves  once again? From the FT story For some months, Mrs May’s team …

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Moment of truth approaches for the DUP deal as May prepares to reveal her latest plan for the border

This morning on the Today programme, Theresa May stalled when pressed on when she would have her detailed plans for the backstop ready. But she will have to say more when she meets the DUP this afternoon. This suggests she may unveil it in her leader’s speech tomorrow morning – unless once again, the DUP stop her. Q: Will you compromise on the Irish backstop? May says she hopes to get a backstop that never needs to be used. Her …

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Public Goods can help keep farmers farming

By John Martin of Nature Matters NI For the first time in nearly half a century an Agriculture Bill has been brought forward in Westminster. The Bill outlines a significant change in the direction of farm support in England, moving from a system focused mainly on area based payments to payments for public goods such as clean water, fresh air and recreational opportunities. The proposals do not apply to Northern Ireland but there is no doubt that post-Brexit we will …

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Despite the PM’s steadfast support for the Union, Arlene Foster choses this moment to distance the DUP from Theresa May

The Daily Telegraph claims Arlene Foster has given “a major boost” to Boris Johnson’s leadership ambitions in an interview with the paper on the eve of Boris’ appearance at a Conservative fringe meeting.  In comments which fail to back the Chequers plan, she has also kept her distance from Theresa May personally. In a major boost for Mr Johnson’s leadership ambitions, Mrs Foster endorsed the “belief” and “spirit” contained in his blueprint for Brexit. One her biggest disappointments  is the failure …

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Theresa May’s version of the Union is as dangerously limited as the DUP’s

That ebullient and creative academic Pete Shirlow recently wrote a piece in the Belfast Telegraph discouraging the indulgence of Northern Irish whinging about ourselves as “ a place apart”, and unloved in GB.   You can argue this either way. As he says: “ The idea that most people in Britain do not give a monkey’s is as true as it is false… I am sure most people in Britain never think about Northern Ireland, but they probably never think much …

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Future Ireland / Northern Ireland and the Humpty Dumpty World of Schrödinger’s Cats

Apparently you follow the rabbit down a hole and you emerge in a wonderland …. Ken Clarke – House of Commons “When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.” “The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.” “The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master—that’s all.” Lewis Carrol – Alice in Wonderland The …

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Cabinet may be moving towards Canada. Are the DUP about to back No Deal?

Not normally the keenest of DUP watchers, the New Statesman have their eyes on Sammy Wilson, who is the DUP’s Brexit spokesman in the Commons when it isn’t Nigel Dodds. Sammy is at heart a No Deal man. While I believe Chequers has the legs to move closer to Norway (these images become more bizarre by the day), Canada is now said to be favoured by a cabinet cabal – but not by Sammy, who has spoken against it . …

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From Jeremy Corbyn, the chance of a Brexit breakthrough

For some, Jeremy Corbyn had at last managed to deliver  the usual old conference guff and sound like a leader. But for many others well beyond the hard Left, Corbyn’s speech  took them out of the tight old Tory straightjacket, if just for a moment.  The Brexit passage was particularly clever. Whether he entirely believes in or not, Corbyn made an offer to Theresa May that could be the Brexit breakthrough, one that’s compatible with her comments on the plane …

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Theresa May’s defence of “the precious, precious Union” takes centre stage

Let Labour tie themselves in knots over an election or another referendum. Let the Brexiteers demand the abandonment of Chequers. The lady’s not for turning, to coin a phrase. And more: she has rejected their favourite option, a Canada plus free trade deal, because it threatens the unity of the United Kingdom. Those were her essential messages to the travelling Westminster lobby  on board  the plane  to New York for the UN General Assembly. And she invoked the taoiseach twice …

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Efforts are mounting to drive a wedge between Theresa May and the DUP over the backstop

The Guardian has been the only media I can find claiming a British ploy to get round the backstop in these terms.  Senior diplomats involved in the negotiations have reacted furiously to the details of a fresh UK proposal for avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland, briefed to the Irish PM, Leo Varadkar, at last week’s Salzburg summit. Under the solution, May will agree to Northern Ireland potentially staying, in effect, in the single market, as the rest of the …

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A second referendum will sadly become an orange and green issue in Northern Ireland

As the fallout from Salzburg continues, there has been a renewed focus by remain voters in Great Britain to push for a second referendum.  Campaigners want a rerun of the June 2016 referendum or a vote on the Brexit deal. Jeremy Corbyn is currently under pressure to back another vote at the Labour conference. There’s a perception that a second referendum would be relatively straight forward in Northern Ireland because it voted ‘remain’. In an ideal world, that would be …

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Stepping back from the cliff edge has begun. Chequers is not dead – says the EU

The salvage job has already begun and a better verdict sought than disaster.  If Salzburg was not all a misunderstanding, it was more like a farce without the laughs. People literally passed each other in the night.  Theresa May’s ten minute pitch over dinner, followed by a leaders’ chat over lunch next day without her was hardly the stuff and style of diplomacy. In the gap between the two meals,  rumours and spin raised  suspicions and fears about  British intentions …

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Theresa wraps the flag around herself and Northern Ireland. But fresh proposals on the border may test the DUP deal

Flanked by two Union Jacks in the State Downing Room of No 10, Theresa May reacted to her mauling in Salzburg with a sharp sense of affront. Let’s face it,  a woman can still register hurt dignity more convincingly than a man.  The setting was in fact improvised; it had been moved inside from the street because of a deluge. And in a faint but uncomfortable echo of her disaster at last year’s party conference,  there was a delay because  …

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Theresa May takes a big share of the blame for Salzburg but not all of it. How do they all walk back from the cliff?

Salzburg has turned out to be a Suez moment, a sudden and unexpected blow to  the government’s  prestige delivered by the discovery that UK  does not possess the political and economic weight to  make a deal with the EU so special that that it violates existential Union rules.  The shock is all the greater because the EU decided that, too close to deadline, the British had allowed themselves to be deceived by too much diplomatic fudging; and this had tempted …

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Chequers: they thought it was all over. It is now. Brexit brinkmanship or bust

Donald Tusk President of the EU Council At our EU27 working lunch today we had a good discussion on Brexit, which once again reconfirmed our full unity. Let me highlight three points. First, we reconfirmed that there will be no Withdrawal Agreement without a solid, operational and legally binding Irish backstop. And we continue to fully support Michel Barnier in his efforts to find such a model. Second, we agreed to have a joint political declaration that provides as much …

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No breakthrough for May at Salzburg. More moves on the border needed and concessions on the single market

God knows where we are now. Groping towards a solution probably.  We’re unlikely to get much more clarity from Salzburg by the end of the day.  The suggestion of a second referendum by the Maltese and Czech leaders made an interesting diversion but little more. The Irish Times headlined “stark divisions” between May and Varadkar in advance of their breakfast meeting today but added: Sources close to the prime minister accepted, however, that London would be bringing forward proposals on …

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Brinkmanship on the border: May squares off before EU leaders as Barnier revises his plan

To herald her appearance at today’s EU summit at Salzburg, Theresa May has presented  a bullish case for her Chequers plan where it matters most – to the Germans. In an article under her name in the heavyweight paper Die Welt, she insists that Chequers contains the border solution without resorting to the EU’s legal draft of the backstop. Say it quietly but she may be pushing at a door, if not wide open, just left ajar. Pardon the cliché,  …

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New November “deadline” for agreeing withdrawal terms puts pressure on all sides

The mantra “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed” may be joined  with a new one, “ nothing changes until everything changes.” This  applies in spades to the border backstop wrangle. Rather than face crunch point at Salzburg on Thursday, EU leaders have confirmed that the terms for UK withdrawal will be settled at a special Brexit summit in November. So that’s all good, then. But the backstop still nags and Theresa May has said nothing to wish it away, …

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