Brexit – Page 22 – Slugger O'Toole

Theresa is still stuck at deadlock with the cabinet

Brian Walker on November 13, 2018, 12:44 am

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If the Tory press is to be believed, Theresa May is now refusing to be bounced into the early deal the EU has almost ready and waiting for her to sign – apart from the finicky wee detail of the backstop. Sunday night and Monday’s morning’s late negotiating session in Brussels failed to clinch it. It’s politics not policy now that’s holding it up, meaning the massed ranks of her critics from left and right including the DUP. Even so, …

The moment of truth may really be very close – but what truth?

Brian Walker on November 12, 2018, 8:08 am

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All we can do it count heads and count down, for the cabinet to take a decision – or non-decision – on Theresa May’s negotiating plan or face up to the serious option of No Deal. They have until Wednesday to agree proposals for triggering a late November EU summit and 21st January to seal the deal or bid to extend Article 50. Or for the Tory party to throw Mrs May out and plunge Britain into an unprecedented political …

Arlene Foster should suspend judgement until the outcome of the negotiations

Brian Walker on November 10, 2018, 12:05 pm

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After Jo Johnson’s resignation from the government, the main focus today is the hardening view that Theresa May will fail to win a majority for any deal she negotiates with the EU. This is in spite of claims that the UK and the EU are on the verge of agreement. It could be all- change next week. The DUP are an essential part of the calculations, but not the only part, as Mrs May is now assailed from both wings …

Dominic Grieve MP issues Brexit warning on human rights and peace in Northern Ireland

Patrick Corrigan on November 9, 2018, 12:15 pm

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Watch or read Dominic Grieve QC MP who last night warned that Brexit risks undermining peace and human rights in Northern Ireland. He fears a hard border with the rest of Ireland is inevitable if the UK’s exit from the EU is implemented in the manner currently proposed.

Face it: A backstop is a necessary condition to avoid catastrophe. May’s conditions do not threaten the constitutional integrity of the UK – for now

Brian Walker on November 9, 2018, 10:58 am

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The Times headline is unqualified: “No- deal will “include new border in the Irish Sea.” So we know what side they’re on. Theresa May’s adoption of a “temporary” backstop whose terms and conditions she insists would not play a part in a permanent deal with the EU was inevitable. But here’s the bigger problem. To be temporary, it must mean that the whole UK will remain in long term close alignment with the EU. A looser permanent relationship like a …

Unionist objections to the backstop are more than DUP paranoia and need to be addressed

Brian Walker on November 7, 2018, 11:26 pm

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Cabinet approval for Theresa May’s Brexit withdrawal proposals, is again delayed as demands mount from inside the cabinet and without to have sight of the Attorney General’s legal opinion in full. (I’m not sure why is meant by “legal.” What they’re really looking for is a navigation chart around the treacherous rocks). The idea of ministers trooping in like junior officers to a “ secret” room in the Cabinet Office like the general’s study to view a summary of the …

For the sake of British-Irish relations also, the backstop gap must be bridged

Brian Walker on November 6, 2018, 10:33 pm

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The urgent task now is to close the gap between Leo Varadkar’s idea of a review clause for all-UK temporary membership of the customs union and Theresa May’s. The essential first move is to discover what each means. Both leaders are under domestic pressure for compromising already. Both sides are desperate for a deal, both economies would suffer severely from the chaos of a crash-out no deal. Both leaders would experience the bitter taste of failure affecting their own positions …

Even if Theresa wins cabinet support for her ” all-UK customs arrangement”, time is running out to knock it into shape for the negotiations

Brian Walker on November 6, 2018, 12:17 am

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In a nutshell, this is the first problem Theresa May will confront from up to a dozen cabinet ministers this morning. “We must have control of the backstop. If Theresa doesn’t stare down the EU and win a mechanism that does this, the whole argument is immaterial as there is zero chance of passing the Commons. The Taoiseach indicated an openness to consider proposals for “a review mechanism”, provided that it was clear that the outcome of any such review …

Confusion over the state of the Brexit negotiations increases anxiety as May’s cabinet prepares to decide on a formula

Brian Walker on November 5, 2018, 9:59 am

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Civil society in both islands looking on anxiously at contrasting stories about the state of the Brexit negotiations are speaking out. Persistent fears of a hard border has prompted a group of nationalists to approach Leo Varadkar to protect northern nationalists’ rights. This the second appeal of its kind in a year. Latest 4pm Leo Varadkar said this afternoon Ireland is willing to consider proposals for a review clause in relation to the backstop for the Irish border. The backstop …

What was that again about a breakthrough?

Brian Walker on November 5, 2018, 12:16 am

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Yesterday to the Sunday Times, the British side was talking up the prospect of neutralising the backstop and forecasting the emergence of a winning formula. Today EU sources were clear that they were keeping the backstop in reserve and fully charged, while back home, the reported formula was being attacked by Leave and Remain. By Tuesday we should know if there is enough agreement to call an EU special summit on 21st November. Full marks to Patrick Smyth of the …

“Breakthrough on the backstop, claims the Sunday Times

Brian Walker on November 4, 2018, 1:15 am

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In an “exclusive” pieced together from “dozens” of Whitehall and EU sources, the Sunday Times claims that Theresa May has secured a deal that will keep the whole UK in the customs union for the transition. A political declaration on “a future economic partnership” (FEP) will allow the UK to strike a Canada-style free trade deal that will appeal to Brexiteers. While the story doesn’t mention a specific time limit as demanded by the hardliners or a “break clause” floated …

Can it be for real? Arlene is looking happy

Brian Walker on November 3, 2018, 12:26 am

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While Mary Lou and friends were dismissing Brexit secretary Dominic Raab’s visit “ like a thief in the night” as a “box ticking exercise”, Arlene was treating us to a rare public smile. “Goodness, we have been here on a number of occasions and I think we are close to a deal that will work for Northern Ireland, that is what we want.” Raab was guardedly optimistic again at Stormont. But the louder mood music came out of the intergovernmental conference …

Trimble’s attack on the backstop has come too late

Brian Walker on November 2, 2018, 12:39 am

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With prospects of a return to Stormont hovering around degrees absolute, the temperature is rising among unionists about the meaning of the backstop. They believe – and they’re not alone – that there is no outcome other than no deal that will not activate the backstop and “make Northern Ireland a protectorate of the EU.” Mixed messages are emerging as EU leaders have to decide whether to convene a special ratification summit on 21 November. Meanwhile a more parochial row …

Backstop blues on both sides as another “deadline” approaches

Brian Walker on October 25, 2018, 11:39 am

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Interesting that the Irish Times have published two opinion pieces this morning deviating a little from the paper’s editorial line of unwavering support for the EU version of the backstop. Newton Emerson accuses Varadakar of having “a tin ear” to unionist sensitivities while Stephen Collins bluntly urges Varadkar and Coveney to “ shut up.” Sensitivities in both camps are heightening. The DUP are nervous that Theresa May will rat on them if she can get a deal that will pass …

EU to offer “UK-wide customs treaty” and the backstop clause has changed

Brian Walker on October 23, 2018, 11:41 pm

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The Sun and the Mail claim another “breakthrough” – but is it too good to be true? THERESA May got a Brexit boost today – as it emerged the EU will cave into her demands on the Irish backstop. But today RTE reported that the EU has accepted Mrs May’s plans could be workable as long as both sides sign a separate treaty to enshrine it into law. The compromise brings Britain and the EU a step closer to signing a …

Time to stop making a fetish of the backstop and find a new formula via the GFA

Brian Walker on October 22, 2018, 11:46 pm

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Brian WalkerFormer BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London

Theresa May is shaping up for a fight. I rub my eyes, but for the first time yes, she even looks like a winner

Brian Walker on October 22, 2018, 12:21 am

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Anonymous briefings from Brexiteer backbenchers claiming Theresa May is “entering the killing zone” and “ drinking in the last chance saloon” have backfired as the prime minister goes on the offensive in the Sun in advance of a Commons statement on Monday afternoon. Breaking the normal protocol of informing MPs first, her Sun piece is a departure from her normal defensive stonewalling and a sign of new determination to seize the initiative. Reports that she’s facing a cabinet revolt sound …

The odds are narrowly on May surviving the week and staggering through to a withdrawal deal before Christmas

Brian Walker on October 21, 2018, 5:39 pm

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By a long way, more of the public demonstrated for a second referendum yesterday than were threatening the prime minister in lurid language with nemesis on Wednesday. Just now though, it’s the MPs uttering the threats ( at least to journalists), who matter more. One prominent Brexiteer is making a distinctive gesture. In a further headache for May, the former Brexit minister Steve Baker yesterday tabled a series of amendments to the Northern Ireland Bill, which is due in the …

Would “more time” bring us closer to chaos or breaking the backstop deadlock?

Brian Walker on October 18, 2018, 1:39 pm

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Will “more time” do it for Theresa May and the rest of us? The option of a longer transition is intended to provide more reassurance that special measures would not be needed to avoid a hard border — even if the UK and the EU fail to implement a new trade deal by the end of 2020. Because the EU is mildly encouraging, the chorus of opposition in Westminster is all the louder. Remainers are as dead against as Leavers …

Only now are both sides realising that the backstop can’t be blagged away

Brian Walker on October 17, 2018, 11:52 am

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In single interviews it’s entirely appropriate for the presenter to play the devil’s advocate role. But in a long and pressing interview this morning on Radio 4’s Today programme with Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney, John Humphrys showed I believe a basic lack of understanding of the EU/Irish position of the backstop which partly explains why it’s such a conundrum. I’m pretty sure it was more ignorance than tactic. All Humphrys could do to fill the time was to keep …