What if we re-run the Boundary Commission for 650 MPs, 18 in Northern Ireland?

Rumours started last week suggesting that the newly re-elected British government now plans to drop the current Boundary Commission proposals to cut the House of Commons to 600 MPs, and to start a new revision process which would keep the number of MPs at 650. It was always going to be a stretch to get 50 MPs to vote for their own abolition, so I am not at all surprised that this is where we will end up. Remember that …

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Boundary Commission – the detailed projections

So, the Boundary Commission’s report is finally out, as already discussed by Mick and commentators here. As ever I have done some number-crunching; details below but here are the headlines. At Westminster level, five currently DUP-held seats are squashed into four – East Londonderry is replaced by the new seat of Causeway; most of North Antrim becomes Mid Antrim; South Antrim is split several ways, and the new seat with that name actually has more of the old Lagan Valley …

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Corbyn’s dire polling figures give Tories (and the SNP) huge political latitude

Yesterday there were five council by-elections in which both Tories and Labour stood. The overall swing to Conservatives was estimated at 3.8%. Hardly definitive judgement on Corbyn’s leadership, but at a time when the Tories are running a horse and cart through the benefit system hardly grounds for optimism either.

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Westminster Boundaries for Wales – best of a bad job?

Wales On-Line reveals the new Welsh Westminster boundaries, which cut the nation’s MPs from 40 to 30. Such a radical cut obviously requires some bold swipes on the map. Here’s a PDF of the new constituencies. The effect? – Currently the 40 MPS are split Labour 26, Tory 8, Lib Dem 3, Plaid 3. Taking the easiest first and extrapolating 2010 results (without assuming any change in voting patterns) Plaid’s two Gwynedd seats are merged into 1 in the North and …

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New Boundaries for 16 seats..

>Here’s Lewis Baston’s Democratic Audit Model with his view of the proposed 16 seats for Northern Ireland at Westminster. It’s quite detailed. No change in North Antrim but everywhere else does… Belfast down to 3 (looks like 1 strong Nationalist and 2 Unionist to my eye but I’m certain that others will know better..) Upper Bann is shared around a bit with 40% going to the new seat of South Neagh, the rest coming from FST, Mid-Ulster and Newry & …

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