Assembly elections – Page 2 – Slugger O'Toole

South Antrim Constituency Profile – Assembly Elections 2022…

Michael Hehir on April 29, 2022, 7:33 am

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antrim castle gardens, hedge, pond

Yet again we see the pattern, familiar in so many constituencies, of the dramatic but temporary effects of Westminster tactical voting. Unusually, as can be seen in the main party chart below, both the DUP and the UUP benefit from this, and it is possibly one of the factors which led the UUP to run a second candidate for the Assembly. Alliance may also have derived some benefit from tactical voting, although it is obvious it lost the battle with …

A particularly dull election campaign?

Brian O'Neill on April 28, 2022, 11:09 am

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blah, conversation, talk

One of the benefits of the pandemic was it stopped people calling to your door. Charity collectors, people trying to sign you up for food box deliveries, and worst of all – politicians. I have yet to have any canvassers to my door, a situation I am most grateful for. To be honest I go out of my way to avoid local politics. I don’t watch the news or The View, l don’t listen to the Nolan Show, I don’t …

North Down Constituency Profile – Assembly Elections 2022…

Michael Hehir on April 28, 2022, 8:01 am

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Looking out over a calm Irish Sea from Helen's Bay (Jun., 2013).

The obvious tactical voting for Independent Unionist Lady Hermon in North Down Westminster elections cannot hide the strong decline in Unionist vote share over the last decade. In the 2011 elections, unionist votes were worth 4.1 and 4.2 quotas. Eight years later that had dropped to 3.4 and 3.3. If they can hold on to that next month it should guarantee them 3 seats, but the leakage of transfers from UUP and Conservatives could leave them closer to the tipping …

North Antrim Constituency Profile – Assembly Elections 2022…

Michael Hehir on April 27, 2022, 10:02 am

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Looking out over The North Coast and the Glens of Antrim toward Ballycastle from Fair Head (Jun., 2020).

The last decade was one of the steady declines of the Unionist and Nationalist designations and of slow but accelerating growth in Others. There were no signs of tactical voting by Nationalists or Others, but the withdrawal from the contest of the TUV means that the Westminster result tells us nothing about the relative strengths of the Unionist parties. The vote in the Westminster election would have given 3 Safe unionist seats plus 1 Safe Alliance and a Good possibility …

Mid Ulster Constituency Profile – Assembly Elections 2022…

Michael Hehir on April 26, 2022, 7:25 am

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church of ireland, ballyclog, scenery

Not much seems to disturb the placid pattern of Mid Ulster voting patterns, until that curious little uptick in Others at the last election. The level of party support does give us a little more to get our teeth into. In 2013 all the unionist parties decided to pool their resources behind a single Independent Unionist candidate for a Westminster by-election. I believe the idea originated with the UUP. Anyway, it proved not to be such a great wheeze in …

Newry and Armagh Constituency Profile – Assembly Elections 2022…

Michael Hehir on April 25, 2022, 8:00 am

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argory, armagh, irish

There has been little change in the designation splits in Newry and Armagh over the years, until 2019. Then an uptick in the Alliance vote, similar to that in Mid Ulster, occurred. This appeared to be at the expense of both unionists and nationalists. The marked level of tactical voting within unionism at Westminster elections since 2015 can be clearly seen. In 2015 the DUP withdrew as part of a UUP/DUP pact, but since then it has been the DUP …

Lagan Valley Constituency Profile – Assembly Elections 2022…

Michael Hehir on April 24, 2022, 7:44 am

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We can see that the pattern of tactical voting in Lagan Valley at Westminster elections has changed since 2017. The party figures reveal that while some UUP voters still vote tactically, it is as likely that they will do so for Alliance as for the DUP. This is maybe not surprising in a constituency where the UUP only transferred at 40% to the DUP in 2017. Westminster ’19 was also notably the poorest performance by Jeffrey Donaldson in the four …

NI Assembly Election 2022 – What the data tells us…

Alex Scates on April 24, 2022, 7:18 am

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Stormont Estate, Belfast, N. Ireland

I am not breaking any new ground here, but am one of those people that needs to visualise information to actually take it in. So, with that in mind here’s an historical overview of party first preference votes with the Apr 22 LucidTalk poll extension included (data collected in Mar 22). Traditionally, the poll-on-poll comparison compares just that, the voter intention between polls. With the election only circa 2 weeks away from now, I figure this is as close of …

Fermanagh and South Tyrone Constituency Profile – Assembly Elections 2022…

Michael Hehir on April 23, 2022, 9:19 am

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The snow-capped Cuilcagh Mountains seen from Belle Isle Estate in County Fermanagh after a late winter/early spring storm.

After the complexities of East Londonderry, and before embarking on the equally problematic Foyle, it is a relief to address the relative simplicities of FST. On the face of it, we have the re-establishment of a significant nationalist lead over unionist parties after a brief moment of parity in 2016, with an almost imperceptibly slow, but now undeniable, growth in the other’s share. It takes a moment to reconcile this tranquil picture with the performance of the main parties in …

Foyle Constituency Profile – Assembly Elections 2022…

Michael Hehir on April 23, 2022, 9:14 am

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Looking across the River Foyle to the cityside from the waterside, with The Peace Bridge framed by The Guild Hall (left) and St. Eugene's Cathedral (right) (May, 2021).

I’ve just finished reading the entrails in Foyle, and my brain hurts. Quite frankly I wouldn’t blame you if you stopped reading right now and just left it to the Almighty in his ineffable wisdom to reveal the final results sometime on May 7th. To those of you who refuse to heed the warnings, I salute your courage. We start with the designation shares bearing the, by now familiar, marks of tactical voting in Westminster. And as usual, these marks …

East Londonderry Constituency Profile – Assembly Elections 2022…

Michael Hehir on April 22, 2022, 9:15 am

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The zenith of the Glenshane Pass near the Ponderosa Pub which boasts to be "The Highest Pub in Ireland."

This chart clearly shows a shift from unionists to others over the last two elections in East Londonderry. But the shifts at the party level have been even more dramatic: The DUP benefit substantially from tactical votes in Westminster elections, even though there is no doubt that they will win. SF has been on a sharp downward slope since 2017, to the obvious benefit of the SDLP which even finished a whisker above them. The long-term slow decline of the …

East Antrim Constituency Profile – Assembly Elections 2022…

Michael Hehir on April 22, 2022, 9:10 am

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Carrickfergus Castle in County Antrim at sunset (Jan., 2021).

If you have not read yesterday’s article you might find it helpful to read the note on the method I used in making the projections in these articles. You will find it at the bottom, in italics. A glance at the record for designation shares in East Antrim shows the size of the changes that have been taking place recently in electoral fortunes. A slow decline in unionists has accelerated, while nationalist parties, which had been maintaining a steady share, …

South Belfast Constituency Profile – Assembly Elections 2022…

Michael Hehir on April 21, 2022, 8:29 am

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The greenhouse, adorned with a floral display, at the Botanic Gardens in the Queen's Quarter of Belfast, County Antrim (Sep., 2021).

If you have not read yesterday’s article you might find it helpful to read the note on the method I used in making the projections in these articles. You will find it at the bottom, in italics. The contest in South Belfast really repays looking back at recent history. Note the persistent pattern of tactical voting at each Westminster election, and the just as persistent return to non-Westminster voting patterns afterwards. The picture is even more vivid when you examine …

West Belfast Constituency Profile – Assembly Elections 2022…

Michael Hehir on April 21, 2022, 8:25 am

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If you have not read yesterday’s article you might find it helpful to read the note on the method I used in making the projections in these articles. You will find it at the bottom, in italics. The marked relative decline in the nationalist vote share in West Belfast is a direct reflection of the growth in the People Before Profit vote at the 2016 Assembly election, after which the party designated as Other. The main point to note here, …

Data background to the Assembly contests in East and North Belfast…

Michael Hehir on April 20, 2022, 9:17 am

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democrats, america, vote

With the Assembly election fast approaching I have compiled an overview of some of the constituencies and hope to complete more in the time available. It is many years since there was so much uncertainty about the outcome of the election. Usually, it is possible to be confident of the results for at least four seats out of the five in each constituency. This time it is more often three. Each profile outlines the historical voting patterns in the constituency …

What comes after 5 May elections? A ‘fortune teller’ diagram…

Katy Hayward on April 5, 2022, 8:15 am

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The 5 May Assembly election may well be a critical moment for post-Agreement politics in Northern Ireland. The law and procedures of the Assembly provide a set of ‘known knowns’ to prepare for; few are straightforward, but none need send us hurtling into stalemate or crisis. First things first: the new cohort of MLAs will take their seats, each one designating as “Unionist”, “Nationalist” or “Other”. Their first official task as a legislature is to elect a Presiding Officer (speaker) …

No early Stormont election says Brandon Lewis…

Brian O'Neill on February 8, 2022, 11:50 am

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From the BBC: Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis has ruled out calling an early assembly election at Stormont. Sinn Féin and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) had called for him to bring the date forward from 5 May, after the power-sharing executive collapsed last week. Other parties had warned that an early election would affect legislation due to be passed by next month. Mr Lewis said “it is right” that the election date remains 5 May. The 5th of May …

Failed candidates, don’t give up on your Assembly dream…

Brian Pope on October 17, 2021, 12:24 pm

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northern ireland, stormont, parliament

Selecting an Assembly candidate can be a fraught and tense business for many local associations but what does it feel like to be an unsuccessful contender? On Tuesday last I had the pleasure of putting my name forward to be the next Alliance Party candidate for the forthcoming Assembly elections. It turned out to be a hugely rewarding experience even though the result did not necessarily go my way. More generally, I believe that we should explore how unsuccessful candidates …

What would a 32 county Dáil Éireann look like?

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on January 26, 2018, 10:48 pm

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Public support for Irish unity amongst the Northern Ireland electorate has increased in recent years, with a recent Lucid Talk poll suggesting that a third of the electorate would vote for unity were a referendum to take place. There has been scant discussion, however, on what the politics of a new 32 county state might look like. Would the two largest political parties in the South, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, dominate an all-Ireland Parliament? The Constitution of Ireland states: …

The varying costs of the last southern election per constituency…

Mick Fealty on January 13, 2017, 1:44 pm

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CHEAP SEATS: One of the advantages the big parties in #AE17 is how the scale of their operation drains costs. Karl Brophy has tweeted this fascinating breakdown of costs from the last Irish election… Spend per seat won in € for #ge16 AAAPBP 44,460FF 38,361FG 55,377SF 28,269Greens 73,396.Soc Dems 63,529Labour 154, 816 — Karl Brophy (@KarlBrophy) January 13, 2017 The Greens only won two, so at 73,396 those were a costly capture. But a desperate Labour party throw everything they …