To pick up on how this story has been set up over the last few years, have a look at John Adams’ resume of opinion pieces, complete with links, and this article from Anthony McIntyre. Both look at the issue from a Nationalist point of view but, until now, that is where most of the comment and speculation has come from. Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics …
If you are still confused, try this run down of the census results from Bob Osbourne, University of Ulster. Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
Chris Thornton in relaxed mode, provides a quick demographic history of Belfast over the last 50 years, before concluding, perhaps more perceptively than most caught up in the simple mathematics of it all: “The question of a united Ireland is far from settled. But for those who equate unionism simply with the protection of Protestant rights, it is clear that Northern Ireland will never be the same again.” Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on …
The NI Secretary of State, Paul Murphy has tried to calm the feverish speculation over the census: Once the dust settles today, I hope the majority will see the census as a useful reminder of what the Belfast Agreement was all about. Because at the heart of the Agreement, was a recognition that the bitter divisions of Northern Ireland will never be solved by mere demographics. Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts …
Jeffrey Donaldson believes that the religious figures represent a scaling back of nationalist ambitions to bring about a United Ireland within the foreseeable future. Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
The argument over what precisely the figures mean begins to take over the political discourse. UTV has an impressive compendium of opinion. Amongst many others David Ford probably speaks as well for the ‘middle ground’ as anyone else: “We need to inject a degree of realism into this hyped debate, as it is increasingly obvious that there is a sizeable proportion of people in Northern Ireland who do not want to be classified as either Catholic or Protestant. Government policy …
Despite recent headlines to the contrary, Gerry Moriarty in the subscription only Irish Times, believes the actual figures are good news for ‘Protestants’: “The 53/44 figure will provide some reassurance for unionists who were confronted with a number of recent media reports suggesting that the Catholic population would be as high as 46 per cent and the Protestant/unionist population would be under 50 per cent.” “Such figures would have signified a dramatic rise in the Catholic population of 4 per …
David McKitterick reports a rise in the numbers of Catholics in Belfast. In the Examiner, Dan Buckley focuses on population changes in Belfasts, that have practical effects: “Many Catholic districts of Belfast are now bursting at the seams, while some Protestant zones are half-empty, illustrating a demographic change which may have huge political consequences.” In the Newsletter, Suzanne Breen returns to the the partition of the historic 9 county province of Ulster to find context for the magnitude of the …
The key figures are now available. The introduction and table of contents here may help with navigation. Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
Unionist commentator and advisor to David Trimble, Steven King suggests that the All-Ireland corks may have been popping too soon. He points out: “Department of Education figures show that the proportion of children educated at Catholic primary schools is below 50% and is falling year on year by 0.2%. Looking at the youngest section of the population, the number of children admitted at P1 level last year at (Protestant) controlled schools was 11,675 but just 10,931 at (Catholic) maintained schools.” …
Earliest indications from the BBC suggest that the final figures will be more like 53% Protestant and 44% Catholic. Other reports from RTE and UTV concur with this estimate. Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
Aside from the issue of total in the religious populations before they were announced this morning, Sinn Fein focused on the rising numbers of Irish speakers, they expect to be demonstrated in the figures. Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
Gerry Moriarty. Northern Editor of the Irish Times is the first to hint (sub only) that the figures in census currently being bandied around, may prove to be hugely exagerating the final numbers of Catholics in the Province: “Some reports have suggested the Catholic population could be as high as 46 per cent, but this may be too high. It is understood a figure in the lower mid-40s may be more accurate.” Mick FealtyMick is founding editor of Slugger. He …
Rosie Cowan goes on to quote some apparently sobering facts: “Four of Northern Ireland’s five cities, Belfast, Derry, Armagh and Newry, now have Catholic majorities – only Lisburn does not – and last year there were 173,000 Catholic schoolchildren, 146,000 Protestants and 22,000 others.” It should be noted that of these cities, only Belfast has changed in the course of the last 40 years. And in any case it masks the fact that the largely protestant Castlereagh Borough Council, controls …
Reg Empey is the latest Unionist politician to share his thoughts on the potential outcomes of the census when it is announced on Thursday: While this is no definitive guarantee of how people vote, it is a strong indicator. It must also be remembered that the figures refer to the whole population and not the electorate. But the figures will show a growing Catholic population, a reducing Protestant population as a percentage of the total, and a growing group described …
From Jude Collins, simply the most important story of the week. I cannot vouch for the rest of the speculation in Jude’s piece, but this one aspect alone could be revolutionary in its implications: “When census returns are released this month, the figure beside the Catholic 45% will not be 55% Protestant. When ‘others’ have been factored in, the Protestant population in the north is likely to emerge as less than 50% for the first time in its history.” Such …
Are due to be published this month. Though the Census office has not given a date, latest reports suggest that it is on schedule to reach the public before Christmas. In light of this, journalists, politicians and policy makers will be dusting down the many words written on the political demography of Northern Ireland, in preparation for copious amounts of their own wise words on the subject. No doubt John Adams’ Political Demography of Northern Ireland will prove an invaluable …
This may be the sound bite that outlasts the rest when the time and the place of this speech are long forgotten. Blair calls for decisive action: It’s time for acts of completion. We will do our best to carry on implementing the Agreement in any event. But, should real change occur, we can implement the rest of the Agreement, including on normalisation, in its entirety and not in stages but together. And we are prepared to do what is …
In the subscription only Irish News Newton Emerson, editor of the satirical website Portadown News was in Stormont on the last day of business. One thing that consistently erks the reasonable middle ground parties is the way that most commentators rarely talk to them: “The Women’s Coalition are first to brave the spotlight. Cruelly, several reporters take this opportunity to make final adjustments to their cameras and microphones. There are no questions. As they leave, the DUP arrives and the …
Malachi O’Doherty is the first one I’ve seen to evaluate the gains and losses made by each of four main parties through the events of the last fortnight. It’s an interesting exercise, but one that may prove misleading in a process that has become more long term, where many expected early closure. Indeed it is these parties that O’Doherty pinpoints as the main losers. The winner, he declares is the DUP, repeating his observation of last Sunday that Peter Robinson …
