Politics – Page 8 – Slugger O'Toole

It is not enough to be non-racist; you have to be anti-racist.

Terry Wright on August 8, 2024, 1:34 pm

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garden fork near burning wood during daytime

I have just arrived home from attending an anti-racism rally in Guildhall Square, Derry-Londonderry. A few ideologues took the opportunity to platform their mantra but for the most part speakers followed the lead of current SDLP mayor, Lillian Seenoi Barr in refuting lazy stereotypical views regarding the major contribution that migrants who have come here to seek a better life, make to our economy, health and education sectors. I have personal experience of the healthcare provided by skilled practitioners from …

After the election, we need more bridge builders and fewer slick marketeers…

Mick Fealty on July 26, 2024, 9:59 am

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A thneed’s a-fine-something-that-all-people need. -From The Lorax by Dr Seuss, 1971 Culture eats strategy for breakfast they say. I’ve long believed that Alex Salmond knew what a lot of his Scottish nationalist cohort never really did, ie that before movement was possible he would have to tackle the cultural barriers to his party’s appeal. Irish nationalism in Northern Ireland has only fitfully understood that reality, in figures like Curry, Hume, Fitt, McGrady and Mallon and those all plied their trade …

#GE2024 postal ballot and proxy vote statistics

Alan Meban (Alan in Belfast) on July 23, 2024, 3:34 pm

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Bar chart showing 2019 and 2024 valid postal ballots returned and included in the General Election poll by constituency along with the percentage change in postal ballots returned and proxy votes issued between 2019 and 2024 by constituency.

With the 4 July General Election being called during school holidays in Northern Ireland (and much of Scotland), was there an increase in the number of postal ballots and proxy votes issued? Yes and no. The statistics for 2024 have been published by the Electoral Office for Northern Ireland this afternoon. (link to 2019 stats) Postal Ballots The number of postal ballots issued jumped from 16,993 in GE2019 to 25,747 in GE2024. That’s a 52% increase. Not every postal ballot …

Joe Biden bows out

Slugger Team on July 21, 2024, 7:04 pm

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It has felt increasingly inevitable as more and more Democrats called on the President to end his campaign, and so it has come to pass… Joe Biden has withdrawn from the race for the Presidency, meaning the Democrats will need a new standard bearer to face Donald Trump in November. Despite his agonising over it, and despite the time he took to accept the reality that his campaign had been fatally holed by his debate debacle, in the end Biden …

After the election, even if the DUP faces a crisis then the rest of Northern Ireland does not…

Mick Fealty on July 17, 2024, 2:11 pm

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white wooden shed surrounded by trees

In the doldrum life of Northern Ireland politics losing one seat is a misfortune, two careless, three criminally negligent. To have escaped two more potential losses is a serious warning from the future for the DUP that for too long played just one card. Since the writ of that one card trick (keeping the FM’s job for unionism) ran out in the last Assembly election in 2022 the party has been on notice that it needs to find another reason …

Soapbox: Democracy is a Non-negotiable

Soapbox on July 12, 2024, 8:30 am

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dentist treating a patient

Dr Dan Boucher was the TUV/Reform UK candidate for Belfast South and Mid Down and is a former DUP Director of Policy and Research. We approached last week’s General Election on a very different basis to that of 12 December 2019. Back then, in Northern Ireland we enjoyed the right to stand for election to make all the laws to which we were subject. But since 1 January 2021 this right has been taken from us through the application of …

Lost deposits by party and by gender (spoiler: men always ‘out-deposit’ women) #GE2024

Alan Meban (Alan in Belfast) on July 10, 2024, 8:30 am

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Chart showing percentage of men and women who kept their deposit when standing in NI at General Elections between 1997 and 2024

While the DUP suffered losses at last week’s General Election, they continue their record streak of never having lost a deposit at a Westminster election – general or by-election – since 1997, and probably quite a lot further back too. Historically, the DUP have been most vulnerable to losing their deposit in Belfast West and South Down. In 2024, Foyle, Belfast West and Newry & Armagh were the lowest, though all with a vote share double what’s required for their …

After the election, why is Nationalist turn out continuing to drop like a stone?

Mick Fealty on July 10, 2024, 7:47 am

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red Radio Flyer trike on brown dried leaves

For all the breathless talk of movement towards a border poll, constitutionally the recent elections changed absolutely nothing. Nationalism came back with 9, MPs whilst the number of non nationalist MPs was also nine. Exactly the same as last time. Anyone claiming the movement towards Alliance is constitutionally significant when the seats lost and won are North Down and Lagan Valley should understand Alliance is at its liveliest where religious integration is at its highest, which is in the east. …

Visualising majorities #GE2024

Alan Meban (Alan in Belfast) on July 9, 2024, 8:30 am

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Chart showing the size of Northern Ireland constituency majorities at the 2019 and 2024 General Elections, sorted in order of increasing majorities in 2024

Until I looked the constituency majorities together for the 2019 and 2024 General Elections, I hadn’t spotted that the sweet spot for Alliance is a shade under three thousand votes for their wins at both elections. Two versions of the chart: one in order of increasing majority at GE2019, the other in order of increasing majority at GE2024. I find my eye catches different details and looks for different stories depending on whether the focus is on the old or …

Northern Ireland now has two political cultures, an eastern ‘republic’ and western ‘principality’

Mick Fealty on July 5, 2024, 10:21 am

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Machiavelli in his famous handbook for democratic survival The Prince divided all states into either republics or principalities. The former were easily overrun, but hard to retain. With the latter once conquered, there is great ease in holding it. This morning, Northern Ireland has two distinct political cultures. East of the Bann where voters will not tolerate any failure in their politicians, whereas in the west and south where no matter who is standing, the Sinn Fein brand has become …

It’s about time the unionist parties woke up to the fact we are not that Unionism anymore, …….

Terry Wright on July 3, 2024, 5:00 pm

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shallow focus photo of brown ceramic bird figurines

One of the features of the election campaign by the two main Unionist parties is the call to ‘Make Northern Ireland Work’ and the adoption of the term ‘pro-Union’ as opposed to the customary ‘Unionist.’ It echoes UUP leader Doug Beattie MLA when he was drawn into the media frenzy over historical comments on twitter. His response at the time: “the tweets are not who I am.” Are the tactics of the main Unionist parties designed to suggest: ‘We are …

The most fundamental rule of politics

Andy Boal on July 1, 2024, 7:23 am

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Elections are won by the party (or coalition of parties) which can attract the most support and agree a common programme. This applies whether you have a two-party state or a multi-party state. Sinn Fein have faced this in the Dail where they have been the equal-largest party, but Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael would rather set aside their historic differences and work together than form a coalition with Sinn Fein. In US politics, where the bell curve of left …

And back to the facts… a reply to Professor O’Leary

Soapbox on June 25, 2024, 6:10 am

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yellow and black arrow sign

Colin Coulter and Peter Shirlow respond to four key points raised by Professor Brendan O’Leary in his challenge to their original paper published here on Slugger last week, along with clarification of some of the language used in both pieces. In his response to our recent opinion piece, much of what Professor O’Leary has to say focuses not on that essay but another publication that covers some, but not all, of the same ground. We felt it might be considered discourteous …

Changing Shared Island to Shared Ireland will invite defence, not collaboration.

Terry Wright on June 24, 2024, 9:19 am

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brown and black violin

There was much packed into the recent Ireland’s Future event at the SSE arena but little debate. Apart from the mild rebuke of former UDA member and loyalist politician David Adams arising from comments by an unnamed member of the Irelands’ Future Board in a newspaper column, most of the panel members were of the same mind. Presumably, happy contributors to what Professor Colin Harvey referred to as “the growing coalition for constitutional change”; sharing common if narrow purpose and …

Why facts (should) matter when it comes to discussing our political future…

Soapbox on June 21, 2024, 8:48 am

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a lighted star hanging from a chain in front of a sunset

Colin Coulter and Peter Shirlow interrogate the overall data to question confident predictions around the future constitutional destination of Northern Ireland and come up some challenging questions for a popular media narrative. On Saturday last, Ireland’s Future hosted the latest in a series of public events. In the Spring, the pressure group launched a document specifying 2030 as the ‘right time’ to hold a constitutional referendum. There is little discernible logic in the text as to why that might be the …

Results suggest Sinn Féin’s ‘inflection point’ (and a UI) remain some way off

Mick Fealty on June 14, 2024, 6:49 am

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a full moon shines in the sky over the ocean

Regardless of how you cut it, one of the big stories of the southern locals was Sinn Féin’s failure to break through, again. In order to understand why more than 2o0 SF candidates failed to gain a council seat it’s worth noting the poll ratings at the start: 🚨 IREUKmedia EXIT POLL for the #LE2024: 🟢 Sinn Fein: 199 (+118)🔵 Fine Gael: 180 (-75)🟩 Fianna Fail: 142 (-137)🌱 Green Party: 28 (-21)🔴 Labour: 47 (-10)⚫️ Independents/Other: 246 (+61)🟣 Social Democrats: …

First thoughts on Sinn Féin’s disastrous election

Soapbox on June 11, 2024, 7:25 pm

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a person is casting a vote into a box

David Moane is retired, lives in Dublin and takes an active interest in Southern politics. Here he shares his thoughts on the lessons that need to be learned by Sinn Féin after their disappointing performance in the recent elections. The European and local elections in the RoI were a disaster for Sinn Féin and a vindication of the Government. This momentous outcome will have ramifications for both parts of the island. First, Sinn Féin. In the June 2019 European and …

Why does nationalism run away from Irish Unity at election time ?

Brendan Heading on May 27, 2024, 3:42 pm

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Shortly after the announcement of the general election, I noted over in Scotland that both the SNP and Alba (Alex Salmond’s hardline pro-independence breakaway) were straight out of the blocks, seeking a mandate for Scottish independence. SNP leader John Swinney characterised polling day, July 4th, as “Independence Day”. In a press release which mentions the word “independence” seven times, he said : .. So let’s unite to win the powers of independence to strengthen our economy, tackle the cost of …

Is it time to give up on power sharing as a bad job ?

Brendan Heading on May 19, 2024, 3:38 pm

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A couple of weeks back I wrote about whether or not the time had come for Alliance to adopt a constitutional position (TL;DR – it hasn’t). As is typical of articles that touch on the constitutional issue, there were quite a few comments, most of which spectacularly avoided the point and tended to rehash boring talking points and clichés from the 1970s. But there were several fair remarks which merit further discussion, so I thought I’d start with the most …

Alliance : time to get off the fence ?

Brendan Heading on May 6, 2024, 4:16 pm

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Some weeks ago I noted with interest the outcome of the University of Liverpool survey into the makeup of the Alliance Party membership base and their views on constitutional matters, finding that a larger number of members believe that Irish unity should occur in the future. The title of this piece refers to an old cliché, which I’ve heard since 1994, that the party are a bunch of fence-sitters. More recently I’ve been hearing “constitutional change is coming and Alliance …