Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) – Page 3 – Slugger O'Toole

“Alternative arrangements for the Irish border” is a euphemism for red tape and mass surveillance

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on May 22, 2019, 12:47 am

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The fabled “alternative arrangements” for the Irish border have come to prominence again, following the announcement from Prime Minister Theresa May that the government would “be under a legal obligation to seek to conclude alternative arrangements” to the Irish backstop by the end of 2020. Quite what “a legal obligation to seek” something actually means is unclear. What is also unclear is what these “alternative arrangements” might actually mean in practice. Disgracefully, the British government has forced customs experts, and …

The Brexit Party look set to dominate at the European Elections in Great Britain as the Conservatives collapse

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on May 20, 2019, 2:18 am

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The Conservatives are on the verge of being virtually wiped out at this Thursday’s European election, whilst the Brexit Party look set to improve on the 24 seats that Ukip won at the 2014 poll. Using the data from this YouGov poll and analysis on the number of seats won by the vote received in the 2014 election, I estimated the probability of each party winning each seat in each European constituency. The Brexit Party would be, by far, the …

Naomi Long is the strong favourite to win Northern Ireland’s third European Parliament seat

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on May 19, 2019, 1:52 pm

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At the European elections on Thursday the 23rd of May, Northern Ireland will elect three MEPs, who will each serve a term of indeterminate length between zero and five years. Of the incumbents (Martina Anderson of Sinn Féin and Diane Dodds of the DUP), both are guaranteed to keep their seats. Danny Kennedy of the UUP is running following the retirement of Jim Nicholson. Both Naomi Long of the Alliance Party and Colum Eastwood of the SDLP are in contention …

Centre parties have captured a significant number of seats from both nationalists and unionists at the local elections

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on May 6, 2019, 12:09 am

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With the counting now concluded in the 2019 Northern Ireland council elections, it is apparent that centrist parties have captured a significant number of seats from both nationalist and unionist parties. However, nationalist parties have captured enough seats from unionists to keep their total number of seats across the councils roughly the same, whilst the number of unionist councillors has dropped substantially. The number of seats won by each party/group in 2014 and 2019 is broken down in the table …

Centre ground parties advance and the DUP consolidate the unionist vote at the 2019 local elections

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on May 4, 2019, 5:26 pm

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The centre ground parties, and the Alliance Party in particular, have made significant gains at the May 2019 local elections. With all of the first preference votes now counted, the Alliance Party made the largest gain of the share of the first-preference vote, up by 4.9% from the 6.6% received in 2014 to 11.5% in this year’s poll. The Green Party more than doubled their share of the vote from 0.9% in 2014 to 2.1%, whilst People Before Profit received …

Last night’s indicative votes show how the impasse in the Commons could be broken

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on March 28, 2019, 12:55 pm

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The House of Commons voted last night on eight proposals that were intended to indicate what the House might be prepared to support to break the deadlock on the departure of the UK from the European Union. None of the proposals were approved by MPs. The narrowest defeat was for Kenneth Clarke’s proposals for the UK to leave the EU and remain a member of the customs union which lost by eight votes, whilst Marcus Fysh’s proposals for “Contingent preferential …

A new British centrist party would likely benefit the Tories, just like the last time

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on March 5, 2019, 10:42 pm

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An unpopular Conservative government, a left-wing Labour leader with poor favourability ratings, and a breakaway faction of centrist Labour MPs joined by a Conservative defection a short while afterwards. The parallels between the formation of the Independent Group of MPs in February 2019, and that of the Social Democratic Party in 1981, are clearly apparent. Could a new centrist force make a breakthrough in a Westminster general election, as the alliance between the Liberals and the SDP famously failed to …

Just Say Momo – how the PSNI are helping to spread hoaxes and hysteria online

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on February 27, 2019, 12:30 pm

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If you are a member of any parents’ social media groups, then you might have heard of “Momo”, apparently a game that challenges children to perform dangerous tasks. The story is often accompanied by a horrifying picture, which is actually a sculpture created by a Japanese special effects company called Link Factory. The story is a well-known hoax, and the urban legend debunking site Snopes article has an excellent article on the subject. At the time of writing, the hoax …

Parliamentary arithmetic moving against a no-deal Brexit

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on January 7, 2019, 10:08 pm

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Now that the Christmas lull in the interminable Brexit wars is over, the various parliamentary factions are preparing to do battle once again as the 29th of March draws closer. The first significant vote of 2019 is expected tomorrow, when parliament is scheduled to vote on Yvette Cooper’s amendment to the Finance Bill. The intended purpose of the amendment is to seek to prevent a no-deal Brexit by blocking tax powers if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, …

A house divided against itself – Brexit factions in Westminster

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on December 22, 2018, 4:51 pm

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It has become apparent that Westminster is deadlocked with regards how to proceed with the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union. Theresa May had intended to receive “clarification” from the European Union on the proposed Withdrawal Agreement, but the EU have made it clear that no re-negotiation will be forthcoming. Assuming nothing dramatic happens between now and the vote, it is virtually certain that the government will face a heavy defeat. To illustrate the difficulty faced in getting parliament …

With no power comes no responsibility – Northern Ireland sleepwalking towards an electricity crisis

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on July 30, 2018, 7:56 pm

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When Kilroot power station failed to win an auction to supply the all-island Single Electricity Market (SEM) held in December last year, its owner AES announced that the facility was to close. Despite announcing that the power station was to close in May 2018, at the time of writing it remains open. The closure of Kilroot, and the already scheduled closure of part of Ballylumford power station, means that Northern Ireland will lose over 900 MW worth of electricity generating …

Would a United Ireland be affordable?

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on July 22, 2018, 1:44 pm

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Given recent polling that suggests that a border poll on the question of Northern Ireland joining a unified Irish state could be a close contest, there has been a renewed focus on the question of whether a unified Irish state would be affordable. There is a gap of roughly £10bn between tax revenues and public expenditure in Northern Ireland, an effective subsidy from Great Britain to Northern Ireland that is often referred to as the “subvention” or the “block grant”. …

How has opinion in Northern Ireland on the border question changed since the Brexit referendum?

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on June 24, 2018, 4:14 pm

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It is perhaps ironic that, given politics in Northern Ireland has revolved around the border question since its inception, there is a significant amount of uncertainty regarding whether the people of Northern Ireland want to stay in the United Kingdom or become part of a united Ireland. There have been a number of opinion polls and surveys on the question since the Brexit referendum in June 2016, which have yielded significantly varying results on the question of support for Irish …

Is Northern Ireland dramatically poorer than the Republic?

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on March 26, 2018, 1:58 am

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Before Ireland was partitioned in 1921, the six counties that were to become Northern Ireland were the powerhouse of the Irish economy. Two thirds of Ireland’s manufacturing capacity was in the six counties, Belfast was Ireland’s largest city, and the economy was focused on high value manufacturing, unlike the largely agricultural economy in the rest of the island. Today, the economic situation in the two jurisdictions has flipped. The Republic of Ireland is now one of the world’s richest countries …

Irish general election forecast – Fine Gael set to recover many of their 2016 losses

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on January 31, 2018, 6:44 pm

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Fine Gael retained their status as largest party following the Irish general election of 2016, but were unable to put together a coalition after a collapse in support for their coalition partners, Labour, and an increase in the number of independent and Sinn Féin TDs in the Dáil. Since then, they have required a confidence-and-supply arrangement with the second largest party, Fianna Fáil. The deal is due to be reviewed later this year, and many commentators are expecting that there …

What would a 32 county Dáil Éireann look like?

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on January 26, 2018, 10:48 pm

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Public support for Irish unity amongst the Northern Ireland electorate has increased in recent years, with a recent Lucid Talk poll suggesting that a third of the electorate would vote for unity were a referendum to take place. There has been scant discussion, however, on what the politics of a new 32 county state might look like. Would the two largest political parties in the South, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, dominate an all-Ireland Parliament? The Constitution of Ireland states: …

The Conservatives have a mountain to climb to challenge Labour’s social media dominance

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on October 2, 2017, 11:37 pm

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In the wake of this year’s snap general election, it has become apparent that age, not social class, has become the new fault line in British politics. Analysis published by YouGov highlights the woeful electoral performance by the Conservatives amongst younger voters. Amongst 18 and 19 year old voters at the 2017 general election, Labour were ahead of the Tories by a staggering 47 points (66% to 19%), and were 40 points ahead of the Conservatives with voters in their …

Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey suggests slight increase in support for Irish unity and cross-community support for abortion reform

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on June 16, 2017, 10:51 pm

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The Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey for 2016, which was carried out last year and the results of which were released today, suggests that support for a united Ireland has increased in the wake of last year’s referendum when the UK voted to leave the European Union. Support for Irish unity amongst the Catholic community was up three percentage points, from 31% to 34%. Whilst this is the highest it has been in this decade so far, it is …

Our Friends in the North? The DUP and the Tories aren’t ideologically close

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on June 10, 2017, 9:17 pm

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Following the shock result of Thursday’s General Election, the Prime Minister has announced her intention to form a government with the help with her “friends and allies in the DUP”. The DUP and the Conservatives are aligned in their commitment to Brexit and Northern Ireland’s place in the union, but they are far from ideological twins with regards to other issues. Much has been made of the incompatibilities between the DUP’s hard-line stance on same sex marriage and the Conservatives, …

Will YouGov’s election model be vindicated when the results are in?

Peter Donaghy (Salmon of Data) on June 5, 2017, 7:35 pm

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Opinion polling firm YouGov have raised eyebrows in the run up to Thursday’s poll with the results of their forecast model, which at the time of writing is forecasting that the Conservatives will only win 307 seats. This would deprive them of their parliamentary majority, and leaves open the possibility that Jeremy Corbyn could become Prime Minister if Labour could secure support from the smaller parties in the Commons. The YouGov model is out of line with other election forecasts, …