On the face of it Donaldson’s deal will keep the whole UK aligned with the EU

Rather than farce, the DUP executive’s decision last night is a crossing of the rubicon. Sir Jeffrey’s problem in selling it is likely to relate to the expectations of other unionist voices and leaders. The BBC reports his take as follows: Sir Jeffrey said the legislation agreed with Westminster would “remove checks on goods moving within the UK and remaining in NI, and end NI blindly following EU laws”. He added: “There will be legislation protecting the Acts of Union, …

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The DUP’s actual problem is everybody’s actual problem?

To answer my own rhetorical question, it is simply because they cannot bear to be in government (because it loses them votes, rather than grows them). For most of their fifty plus years they were oppositionist. The elder Paisley he made a good fist of at least looking like they enjoyed the trappings of power. But according to insiders at the time, although the atmosphere was good, nothing was getting done. Back in 2008, I gave a presentation in NICVA …

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[Long Read] Next Irish Election will test whether what a government does makes a difference

In 2024 four billion people go to the polls: about half the population of the planet. In the US, poll watchers predict a Trump win in a campaign where he may spend more time in court than on the stump. In the early 1930s, Will Rogers, a lifelong Democrat joked that the reason Republicans nearly always won the Whitehouse back then was that they had a habit of having three bad years followed by one good one. The good year …

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In praise of… Moderation

These two random gentlemen randomly beseeched me to take this random photograph. I randomly obliged.

I know I promised I’d shut up for the rest of the year, but after I finished yesterday’s round up I realised I’d forgotten to thank probably the most important members of Slugger online, ie the moderators. Thanks to Brian the team has expanded considerably over the last year which has spread the burden of keeping the conversations here both convivial and (largely) on topic. They’re an amazing bunch. The job they do cannot be underestimated. Almost every online conversation …

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A brief coffee time review of 2023, before the return of real politics in 2024?

red kerosene lantern

In a year in which we seem to have gone from Storm Ciarán to Storm Pia in the blink of an eye, the changeable weather elsewhere barely seems to have touched the deadlock of NI politics. In a February edition of The Irish News there’s an editorial that reads, Moment of truth nearing or Donaldson, just ahead of the announcement of the Windsor Framework [Was that this year? – Ed]. By any measure that moment of truth is still to …

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As another “deadline” goes whooshing past, NI continues to choke on its indigestible form of consociationalism

beach, sea, sunset

I’m not sure where the northern press pack got its briefing that the DUP might come out and back the deal it has long been negotiating with the UK administration, but it looks like that call is wrong yet again. Few, it seems, have understood the motivations of the DUP in regard to what it will take to persuade them to re-shoulder their local responsibilities and enable all parties go back into office. The UK government has already met some …

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“Head up, shoulders back and unclench your fists. Look out and look up.”*

flame, lighter, light

“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.” – John Adams “Well, if the vote is for Brexit things will be more interesting.” “Facts don’t matter”. “When I offered them my contact book, none were interested. Young journalists these days are only interested in a 9-5 job job which involves taking no risks.” These are all off record quotes from local working journalists …

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Horrific assault and the riots that followed indicate huge problems Irish politics cannot continue to ignore

waterfall, victoria falls, spray

Some additional thoughts to Brian’s round up last night on the first widespread rioting in Dublin since the reaction to the Love Ulster Parade that took place roughly the same quarter back in 2005. In a hastily written oped in The Irish Times, Fintan O’Toole rightly identifies this as a “testing moment” for the Republic, but he risks erring towards disowning the problem when he simply argues that the Irish people are “better than this”. Whilst I agree with the …

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As another door closes on some people’s hopes for justice, should we consider putting welfare and reconciliation first?

railway, forest, trees

One of the most cynical debates around the legacy of the Troubles lies in how we investigate the past. Although the details of the negotiations between Sinn Féin and Tony Blair are shady, it’s clear Adams successfully lodged a public interest defence. The letters of comfort  story broke after an IRA volunteer who had had one assuring him that the PSNI were not looking for him found himself arrested when he touched down in London (because the Met still were). …

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The continuance of lost power at Stormont is not cost free for the DUP

iceberg, melts, climate

Away from the horse race politics of the latest survey published in the Irish News this morning is some fascinating [Excruciating? – Ed] detail for the DUP. Pete Shirlow is quoted in the FT… What comes out very clearly in our survey — and this is the first time I’ve seen this — is that people who are pro-union are stating that they will think about Irish unity if the assembly doesn’t come back. Unionist behaviour has driven away sectors …

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Rough Beast: One woman’s ordeal at the coarse hands of Provisionalism in the shadow of the peace process

Máiría Cahill begins and ends with an apt choice of words from Yeats’ famous poem, The Second Coming, both for the title but also a deft epilogue that references “the drowning of innocence” and closes the final chapter of her book Rough Beast. In the original the “rough beast” that “slouches towards Bethlehem” is the shadow that threatens the foundation of western civilisation. But the personal connotations lies in the violation of her young body at the rough hands of …

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Hamster wheel of demographic politics #3: ‘if it seems too good to be true, it probably is’.

transportation system, bus, car

So, part three of my analysis of the Coulter et al paper. The thing about rigorous political analysis that’s rooted in robust data (and sets don’t come much more robust than the Census) is how it reveals what common or garden journalism routinely misses. We have seen how the Catholic population seems to have reached its zenith, well short of the fabled 50%+1. And a rise (overall) in those describing themselves as Irish and Northern Irish and a fall in …

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Hamster wheel of demographic politics #2: In spite of Brexit, Britishness still predominates in Northern Ireland

nature, plant, leaf

The response to the first part of what looks like it might be a three part series my analysis of the latest academic output on the NI Census of 2021, was distinguished by a lot of people asking who ever said that demography matters? The critical before and after commentary of the last three censuses documented in the Slugger archives are unambiguous. Mitchel McLaughlin predicted on 16th December 2002 Protestants would dip below 50%, and were “nervous and uncertain”. Three …

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“Those who sing Zombie this week after Ireland’s match against Scotland know their history…”

bar, cocktail, alcohol

I was at Trent Bridge week last Saturday to watch Ireland complete the only one of their three match ODI Cricket series. It was a blissful catchup with old mates (English and Irish) over a long day of that weird mix of generosity and competition. It was a particular pleasure to watch fellow Holywoodian Mark Adair in action for one of three island wide sports teams that comfortably straddle a border and sectarian divide that other codes (and the island’s …

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Hamster wheel of demographic politics: What if we’ve passed the peak number of NI Catholics?

hamster, cage, faces

Like reading the last page of a novel first, the idea of an inevitable united Ireland is like suggesting that if you know how the books ends why have a plot? This may explain why, twenty five years on, an outline pitch for Irish unity has yet to be proposed. The inevitability myth is a consistent marker for an Irish brand of having your cake and eat it style populism. All the drama with fraction of the effort it would …

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A Chief Constable acting with more consideration for Stormont than due process should give us all pause for thought…

break, windows wallpaper, 4k wallpaper

It’s been three weeks since Tom Kelly called for the resignation of the Chief Constable after the data breach. What brings this to a crisis though is yesterday’s judgement that he disciplined two officers ‘to allay a threat to Sinn Féin policing support’. I feel about Chief Constables much the same as Secretaries of State: they exist so our toothless incumbents (toothless because the DUP and SF are too rigid to find the compromises that would make consociationalism work) have …

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Why misunderstanding demography, failing journalism and ‘lawless thinking’ is letting northern nationalism down

Umbrella California St rain

Three reports have come out the last week that ought to give us pause for consideration and thought. Brian and Andy have covered two and the third is published this morning. Taken together they provide a sharp correction to our general thinking. First, I’d like to set the problem in a wider context: ie, the catastrophic collapse of mainstream journalism. In this I’m not trying to critique the performance of individual journalists many of whom have become friends of mine …

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Boycotting Nolan is a refusal of a much needed opportunity for politicians to connect with the public…

As Ryan Tubridy takes what may well be a last roll of the dice to save his career in front of a Dail committee today, it looks like he’s planning to tough it out, but while we wait for an outcome it is worth taking a look at a controversy closer to home. The Irish News over the last week has published a number of articles by commentators some of whom I like (£) and admire (£) on the subject …

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Demographic benefits have been real but nationalism must bring its own ‘theory of government’ to bear on the future

Kleefeld field landscape

“Act always so as to increase the number of choices.” — Heinz von Foerster Everyone (I hope) has a teacher upon whom they look back fondly and with gratitude for the good influence their teaching had on the rest of their lives. I can think of three, my P1 teacher Miss Farrell, who lulled me into the idea school would be fun. My O level Maths teacher Frank Kelly who taught me there’s never any such thing as a stupid …

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“I survived the f*cking Troubles and I survived all the sh*te that was going with it…”

I’m often wary of material that deals directly with our conflicted past, whether in books, films or a series like the BBC’s latest chronicle of the Troubles, Once Upon A Time in Northern Ireland. Often there’s some too clever narrative shortcut at play. Before I dive into this rare piece of slow journalism, some context on how I believe journalism has drifted from its proper democratic mission since 1998. Einstein said explanations should be as simple as possible, but not …

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