On the face of it Donaldson’s deal will keep the whole UK aligned with the EU

Rather than farce, the DUP executive’s decision last night is a crossing of the rubicon. Sir Jeffrey’s problem in selling it is likely to relate to the expectations of other unionist voices and leaders.

The BBC reports his take as follows:

Sir Jeffrey said the legislation agreed with Westminster would “remove checks on goods moving within the UK and remaining in NI, and end NI blindly following EU laws”.

He added: “There will be legislation protecting the Acts of Union, which guarantees unfettered access for Northern Ireland business to the rest of the UK.”

Regardless of who forms the next UK government, these measures will be taken as “legislative commitments”, he said.

The key change appears to be a commitment by the UK government to examine any divergence in regulation for its effect on the internal border between Britain and Northern Ireland.

Whilst it is not clear from the reporting I’ve seen so far, this may have no more force in law than a convention which in theory could be set aside by some future radicalist government.

In practice it’s unlikely to be set aside under the current administration (however long it has left on the clock) or indeed the next which is expected to be led by Sir Keir Starmer.

We don’t know what the reaction of the EU is or their attitude to the dropping of any further internal checks on the Irish Sea, but it’s unlikely to want to be seen to be a block on restoring Stormont.

This goes to the heart of convention in the British constitution. If it once drops, then presumably all bets are off. It appears (and I say this without seeing the detail) the DUP has got what it wanted.

And the rest of us may have gotten the basis for if not an actual reverse of Brexit, then a breaking of the hard Brexit that the ERG once hoped for. His problem is going to be keeping his party intact.

That’s in part because of some of the unrealistic expectations, not simply around these negotiations, but the original exceptions of Brexit itself.  There may be some turbulence ahead.