Daithi McKay 
Portadown is a 6 seater that returned 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SF and 1 UKIP in 2014. The DUP had 2.3 quotas, the UUP 1.3, SF 1.1, the SDLP 0.6 of a quota, UKIP and TUV about half a quota each. In total the Unionist parties have about 5 quotas and nationalists about 1.8 so there is certainly potential for a nationalist gain here. Portadown Orangeman David Jones was elected on the UKIP label in 2014 and is now …
Newry, Mourne and Down Council is one district where the SDLP will be fighting hard to hold their seats. Sinn Féin are confident that the tallysheets from recent electoral outings in the underlying constituencies (South Down and Newry & Armagh) will help them increase their seats from 14 to the 17-21 range. In Newry there are nine candidates chasing six seats. In 2014 the SDLP stood too many candidates and Sinn Féin too few. Hence this time around the SDLP …
Botanic DEA in the centre of Belfast is a real ‘Group of Death’ and with over 2500 new voters coming onto the register since 2014 it adds some extra unpredictability to this competition. In 2014 there were 4 unionist candidates that garnered 1.9 quotas between them and the Sinn Féin and the SDLP picked up just short of 1.9 quotas. The parties most confident of taking a seat here are those standing 2 candidates. That is Alliance (Emmet McDonough-Brown and …
This 7 seater has an interesting mix with Sinn Féin on verge of a breakthrough, 2 former Alliance candidates running on Independent and DUP tickets and Alliance keen to get their 2 seats back and the SDLP to hold their two. In 2014 Alliance, DUP and the SDLP all had around 1.8 quotas. the UUP 0.88 quotas. As Chris has already alluded to this was one of the Alliance Party’s best performing DEAs in 2014 but will be one of …
Lying to the far east of Belfast City Ormiston is a 7 seater and in 2014 Alliance were the top dogs here taking 27% of the vote to the DUP’s 26%. However both parties made big mistakes last time out when they both ran 4 candidates and ended up with just 2 seats apiece. The Alliance’s third candidate Ross McMullan was eliminated on the tenth count in 2014 when he was just 56 votes behind the Greens’ Ross Brown. Brown …
In 2014 Sinn Féin won a bigger percentage of the total seats in Mid Ulster than in any other council area (18 seats out of 40). This time around the party are standing 20 candidates and are targeting new seats in Dungannon and Carntogher to add to their total. Carntogher was its best performing DEA here in terms of first preferences. The party received 61% of the vote in an area that includes Maghera, Swatragh, Gulladuff, Upperlands and Tamlaght …
This Derry DEA is a six seater that in 2014 resulted in the SDLP beating Sinn Féin in first preferences but not in terms of seats – Sinn Féin’s 3 candidates took 3 seats and the SDLP took 2 after standing 4 candidates. This time the SDLP are running Angela Dobbins, Rory Farrell and Brian Tierney, Sinn Féin are putting forward Sandra Duffy, Caoimhe McKnight, Neil McLaughlin and Aileen Mellon. This is also the sitting MP Elisha McCallion’s old stomping ground from …
Oldpark is a six seater that returned 3 SF 1 DUP 1 PUP and 1 SDLP in 2014. This DEA in Belfast City Council could have produced a shock result last time around when Independent Dee Fennell produced a strong first preference vote to challenge the SDLP’s Nichola Mallon. Mallon, who pulled ahead in the latter stages of that count to take the seat was replaced on the council by Paul McCusker in 2016 who is standing for the party …
One of the most interesting polls will be this one in Fermanagh and Omagh District Council. This 6 seater returned 2 SF 2 SDLP 1 DUP and 1 UUP in 2014. However much has changed since then! This time around the 2 SDLP Councillors elected previously, Joanne Donnelly and Dr Josephine Deehan, are standing as Independents as is one of the Sinn Féin Councillors elected 5 years ago Sorcha McAnespy. McAnespy is now a Fianna Fáil member but is unable …
Thousands of young people took to the streets of Ireland today to take part in the latest global youth climate strike. It is expected that strikes will take place in over 100 countries. These protests, kick-started by 16 year old Swedish activist Greta Thunberg, are starting to gather momentum and today protests were held at Cornmarket, Belfast; the Guildhall, Derry; St Stephen’s Green Dublin; Cork City Hall and many more locations. In Dublin an estimated 10,000 gathered to protest. Ireland …
The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) has published a 120 page report entitled ‘Reducing emissions in Northern Ireland’. It follows a request by the Permanent Secretary of DAERA for advice on how the north could reduce greenhouse gas emissions between now and 2030. We remain in the dreadfully irresponsible position of not even having a local Climate Change Act but we nonetheless have obligations to meet arising from the Paris Agreement. The Committee reminds us that Northern Ireland’s contribution to …
A is for Amalgamation There was much discussion throughout 2018 about a potential marriage between the SDLP and Fianna Fáil ahead of the 2019 local government elections. However a recent news article in the Sunday Business Post, drawing upon party sources, talked more about ‘co-operation’ than amalgamation. So will this be more along the lines of a UCUNF arrangement rather than a Labour- Democratic Left swallow-up? More detail has emerged from Gerry Moriarty in the Irish Times this morning: The …
Earlier this month a number of cross-party activists staged a sit-in at the Department of Communications, Climate Action and Environment in Dublin to protest at the lack of government action on climate change. The group want the government to ensure that 3 Bills presented to the Dáil are passed and not blocked by the Fine Gael led administration: (1) Climate Emergency Services Bill (People Before Profit) (2) Microgeneration Support Scheme Bill (Sinn Féin) (3) Waste Reduction Bill (Green Party) The Climate Emergency Services …
DAERA has published its 16th annual report on air quality. According to the report a number of pollutants in some areas “continue to exceed air quality objectives”. There were 19 automatic air quality stations that operated for all of 2017 that provided hourly information on a wide range of pollutants. Air Quality Standards (AQS) were breached in relation to Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels: “Three sites exceeded the AQS objective for annual mean NO2 concentration (40 µg/m3). These were as follows: …
On Thursday night former MP for West Tyrone Barry McElduff re-entered the political arena after he was selected by party members in County Tyrone to run for Sinn Féin in next year’s local government elections. What is notable about his selection to stand in Omagh Town is that this is also the intended launchpad of Fianna Fáil in the north (well certainly for a section of the party) as talks with the SDLP continue. At the last council election in …
It’s just under 19 weeks until Brexit Day and the potential introduction of a hard border in Ireland. It remains a very frightening prospect indeed. Theresa May’s proposed deal with the EU has been greeted with fury by DUP MPs & hardline Brexiteers alike as a ‘threat to the union’. Of course the May deal that is being presented as a threat to the union can be flipped on its head. There is also the possibility that the north could …
Diana Johnson’s bill to decriminalise abortion in England, Wales and the north passed its first reading in Westminster today by 208 votes to 123. Supporters of the Ten Minute Rule Bill included 5 Government Ministers among them Penny Mordaunt Minister of Women and Equalities. It now moves to the next stage in November. Perhaps more crucially however it comes ahead of the second reading of Karen Bradley’s Executive Formation and Exercise of Functions Bill on Wednesday. An amendment is being …
Billy Caldwell, a 12 year old boy from Castlederg suffering from severe epilepsy, was admitted to Chelsea and Westminster Hospital via ambulance this afternoon after suffering a number of seizures. “Billy has had back-to-back seizures today,” Charlotte Caldwell, his mother said. “On his medication, which included the vital but banned THC component, he was seizure-free for more than 300 days.” Charlotte who has fought tirelessly to secure medication for Billy for a number of years has said that doctors back …
The Irish News reports that former Sinn Féin MLA Phil Flanagan has won a fair employment case against Citizens Advice Armagh and has been awarded £5,500. It arose in relation to an application Mr Flanagan made for the role of manager at the Citizens Advice Armagh. The Irish News states that : “A female candidate was appointed to the role, even though she had failed to meet the initial shortlisting criteria. “Mr Flanagan launched a case against the charity, claiming …
Ireland was “Shocked, stunned, surprised” at the “unexpected” result of the referendum. Not perhaps by the fact that the Yes camp won but by the margin. There was no doubt before this campaign began that a majority of people wanted to see the eighth amendment repealed. What created uncertainty about the outcome was whether the public would show some reluctance through the ballot box due to the government proposal to allow abortion to be freely available up to 12 weeks. …
