Are Protocol wars about to go beyond posturing?

Is this for real? The Daily Telegraph, the FT and the Irish Times are all agreed on a significant  hardening of positions on the Protocol.  Using their own debased  form of signalling,  loyalist paramilitaries are piling on pressure that Lord Frost for the UK government seems only too willing to accept. Where is this leading? A closer look at the Daily Telegraph closest to UKG sources, suggests a timetable from the end of this month for deciding  to invoke Article …

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The two Northern Ireland companies caught up in the Owen Paterson lobbying scandal

Always keen to support home industries,  I often buy Finnebrogue Naked Bacon in my local west London supermarket, attracted by the catchy label, colourful packaging, its keen price and its claim to be processed without nitrites. Naked Bacon is a brand of Lynn’s Country Foods, one of two dynamic NI companies which paid Owen Paterson as a lobbyist. The other is the pharma company Randox based at Crumlin, one of the biggest suppliers of Covid test kits in the UK, …

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The Armagh service confirmed the fragile nature of reconciliation and left the hard issues hanging

On the hill of Armagh yesterday, the theme of British-Irish reconciliation held – just – despite the absence of the two heads of state that would have significantly  confirmed it at a difficult time.  Perhaps in the end the Queen’s absence although unfortunate was in a way fortuitous. The event would have seemed unbalanced. Her presence alone might have overemphasised the  dread  theme of “ partition” over which  the President  took such exception. As Miriam Lord has written in her …

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The UK government have a stronger hand in the Protocol dispute than their critics think

Lord Frost  Well, where are we on the Protocol?   As talks begin in Brussels which are expected to last  for months , Lord Frost says there’s a long way  to go.  EU vice president Šefčovič insists the EU has reached its limit.  Those are the public positions. Even the briefings are somewhat contradictory.  The Times hopefully reports that the EU is open to a compromise deal that would limit the role of EU Court of Justice in Northern  Ireland, with …

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The comprehensive case for rejecting general amnesty without further legal process.

Scene outside  the Law Courts in Belfast during the Ballymurphy Inquest  The Model Bill team of NI academics led by Profs Kieran Mc Evoy and Louise Mallinder and the Committee for the Administration of Justice has delivered a scathing analysis of the UK Government’s proposal for an amnesty or statute of limitations, which they’ve entitled “Addressing the Legacy of Northern Ireland’s Past”. The team had previously produced a report for making the Stormont House Agreement work effectively.  At its core, …

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Bluff or confrontation is the looming choice, as pressures mount over the NI Protocol

Over the Protocol, somebody’s bluff will be called over the next few weeks. But whose? If he’s to be believed Jeffrey Donaldson has just announced that if the EU doesn’t concede the abolition of most inspections at the ports, the DUP will quit the Assembly. The immediate withdrawal of DUP ministers from north-south bodies except over Covid liaison is the warning shot across the bows. Donaldson’s threats deliberately coincide with the visit of EU vice president Maroš Šefčovič to address …

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The outgoing chief justice Declan Morgan calls for progress on the legacy and political reform

Attention in the legal  world will focus today in the swearing in of  Lady Chief Justice  Siobhan Keegan, the first woman  to hold the chief justice post ( and  the third Catholic in a row – so perhaps that’s one dragon that’s finally been slain) . Young for the job at 50 and entirely home grown, it may be no coincidence that she presided over the Ballymurphy inquest which although not a trial, provided at the very least ample justification for …

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The genie of amnesty is out of the bottle. Not the last word, but the beginning of the end.

The British government’s announcement of a statute of limitations has not only united all parties against them.  It has also exposed the weaknesses of everybody’s positions including their own. All  other parties are insisting on a role for justice while admitting there’s very little hope left of achieving it. As justice for victims and relatives is unobtainable in most cases, what is the point of holding out for years for the remote chance of a trial?  After decades of deadlock …

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This time, it’s the Troubles legacy. Northern Ireland opinion on a key issue, even when substantially in agreement, is being overruled by Johnson’s Conservatives

The devil will be in the detail but as a example of news management in advance, the UK Government’s plans for a Troubles amnesty could hardly be worse for opinion in  Northern Ireland Veterans who served in Northern Ireland are finally set to be freed from the threat of prosecution. In a victory for the Daily Mail, a planned statute of limitations will today be announced covering all incidents during the Troubles. The move by Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis is …

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Don’t gloat; the DUP’s emotional spasms could spell trouble for all of us

Bogeyman Brendan Gloating over the chaos in the DUP may be understandable and even enjoyable. But it is not a sufficient response to what seems to be going on.  The full gamut of resentment at the state of politics has come to the surface of the DUP and there are dangers in it for everybody. In the present circumstances their cup runneth over. The British government are as much to blame as republicans.   First their betrayal over the protocol , …

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In the final report on unification referendums on the island of Ireland, the unionist case goes by default.

   First a critical  assessment of  the Report on Referendums within the island of Ireland by an old colleague with definitive cross border credentials, Andy Pollak,  A brilliantly reasoned but not balanced exploration of future Irish unity referendums….  If a majority opts for unification, then the transfer of sovereignty must occur, whether governing arrangements [for a new united Ireland] can be agreed consensually or not.” This is the report’s central contradiction (as it may be in the 1998 Agreement itself)…  This …

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UK Secretary of State Brandon Lewis champions liberal reform to save the Union and throws down the gauntlet to the DUP

This just could be significant.   In the Sunday Times, the emergence of a pro Union liberal reform strategy acceptable across the community from the British government. It appears  to remove the last vestige  of the UK government dancing to the DUP’s tune. At  the most sensitive moment imaginable, just before  Edwin Poots nominates a still unknown First Minister, Brandon Lewis  presents a frontal challenge to the DUP.  This has been simmering for some time but I never thought it would …

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Militancy can only expose Edwin Poots’ weakness. Instead he can claim credit if David Frost delivers acceptable mitigation of protocol terms

The tempo of Protocol politics  is quickening. Fresh from  calling into the Arcadia deli on the Lisburn road ( a favourite haunt of  SDLP, Alliance and Green voters no doubt as it once was of mine ),  Brexit minster Lord Frost  has  issued what sounds like an ultimatum to the  EU. “If the Protocol operates so as to damage the political, social, or economic fabric of life in Northern Ireland, then that situation cannot be sustained for long”. The new …

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Sturgeon is not as invincible as she projects. The Union has begun to fight back

The FT reports that the £ reached a new high level “as prospects for a new early  referendum on Scottish independence dimmed.”  This might strike you as very odd after panic hit the  London media  at the news of the inevitable SNP victory on Friday. Just as weird was the desperate consolation sought in the fact that the SNP failed to win an absolute majority by a single vote. I just don’t get that; they’re home and dry with the support of the Greens. The falling short is purely token. Clearly the markets dislike the uncertainty likely to be created by another Indyref campaign. The shock of first reactions in London means that Westminster realises at last that they may have a problem in Scotland. Do Johnson and the Tories care?  The same question occurs as for Northern Ireland. He is secure beyond his wildest dreams  or  rather  the nightmare of even a week ago when he seemed drowning in a tide of petty scandal.  Great Britain ( certainly not NI),  is now  looking split under three different convincing  mandates, Labour in Wales, the SNP in Scotland and the Tories  in England , all mutually exclusive.

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Brandon Lewis has tricked them into accepting a wrap on the Troubles

Maybe Brandon Lewis was being really clever.  His leak of a de facto amnesty united everybody against him for  gratuitously failing to  consult them and put victims first.  But he’s only done what he said he’d do a year ago. Therefore why the furtive briefing? It had all the cheek of John F Kennedy appointing his little brother US Attorney General.  “ I  opened the back door at midnight and whispered, “ It’s Bobby!” Look again. Lewis has grudgingly united …

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In the last chance saloon at those earlier cross roads, my Northern Ireland

How do I sum up the centenary, or at least my own share of over 70 years of it, more than half them in England? I can’t ignore the itch to say something, can I?  After all, this is a huge chunk of my life as it is yours, or many of you. Yet summing up is hard to do.  A quotation from As You Like it, the first Shakespeare play I read at school seemed apt at first:  “An …

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If Edwin Poots tried to crash the Assembly it would open the door to a border poll

Let’s assume Edwin Poots is a shoo-in for the DUP leadership. Comfortable in his minor elder statesman role at Westminster, Jeffrey Donaldson hasn’t the stomach for a contest. He might be willing to accept  it on a plate but that’s not going to happen. With more than a hint of desperation, some of us have been foisting the Nixon goes to China model onto Poots, meaning that the hardliner in politics may be better placed to compromise than the liberal. …

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Brexit and now Covid management shows Johnson’s government is blind to the threat of UK disintegration: a new insider report

Some years ago I found myself  as one of a small team  called to the Cabinet Office to be asked to do a study of the state of the devolution because Whitehall was too busy  to do it themselves. The official in charge was Philip Rycroft who in retirement has now let fly with both barrels. Little in this report by the Bennett Institute for Public Policy at Cambridge is breaking news; but it updates an absence of pan -UK …

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Brexit breakthrough on the protocol? Try this for size

If you’re  one of those souls who follow every twist and turn of Stormont politics, there’s one thing you shouldn’t overlook; that  sorting out the Brexit rows which are stoking division are largely  beyond local control. Another is what Newton reminded us recently, that  Stormont  boycott is now  a risky strategy. The Executive can stagger on for the best part of a year in the absence of one leading party – guess who? –  but with an election somewhere along …

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Jim O’Callaghan’s vision of an Irish unitary state pitched at unionists is strong on optics, but is inevitably weak on substance

  Picking up from Mick, I’ve been taking a closer look at Jim O’Callaghan’s speech on preparing for Irish unity, surely our lock down fret of choice – that is, I’ve actually read it. It’s worth reading on merit and not cynically as one of the opening shots in an outsider’s audacious campaign for the Fianna Fail leadership. This is one of the first that grapples with the issues of what a united Ireland might look like. He speaks respectfully …

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