Joint action by the two governments is overdue but joint authority is a red herring

In the Irish Times today, Mick’s favourite columnist Newton Emerson asks what sort of joint authority is being cooked up in the Republic. This begs a familiar question increasingly in vogue as  the Stormont stalemate lengthens. Emerson discerns elements of joint authority thinking  in recent statements by Varadkar and Coveney. He raps Coveney for suggesting that everything reverts to the British Irish Intergovernmental Conference for taking Northern Ireland’s government forward or even as a replacement, if they reach the conclusion …

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Brexit strains between London and Dublin are harming Northern Ireland

At the end of the year, instead of adding pressure for the restoration of Stormont, Brexit has banished it to the sidelines. The border issue remains. Without an overall Brexit deal, the default of Northern Ireland remaining in alignment with the single market and customs union cannot easily be reconciled with the continuing integrity of the UK internal market. In the run-up to stage two negotiations in March,  pressure mounts  for the British government to decide at last how close …

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Calm down. With brains and application, the British-Irish relationship will surmount the problems of Brexit

 

The letter from 200 northern nationalists saying  that Brexit leaves them with a similar sense of abandonment to their parents or grandparents after partition makes depressing reading.

Has it really come to this?

If proof is needed, the evidence of damage caused by Brexit is paraded before our eyes after the briefest moment of euphoria that we’d got over a big hump.

But Nationalists are not unique.

Brexit has excited real  fears on both sides.

If you close your eyes and let your worst feelings rip without restraint, both sets are all too plausible.

This is what happens in a chronic leadership vacuum.

There is a risk that clever people may make fears worse.

Extreme views of an Irish “rights” constitution against a British “political” constitution could bring the two into conflict and wreck the GFA.

Nationalists may exaggerate the power of Irish/EU citizenship in Northern Ireland to hold out for Sinn Fein’s claims of right, under which they seem to mean that nationalists must get anything they voted for, regardless of the political process.

This conjures up a vision of Irish citizens living in an alien land that is the Brexit North, a large minority with their rights guaranteed and brokered by an outside government and an international court and with little more than a nod to the transactional nature of the democratic institutions in Stormont and London from which the main nationalist party absents itself.

On the other hand, unionists  claim that British majoritarianism and a sovereign parliament must win out (for now) and nationalists will have to lump it. This applies not only to imposing the majority UK decision to withdraw from the EU and quit the single market and the customs union over the local Remain majority. It extends actively in the teeth of opposition beyond nationalism  to considering an amnesty for former members of the security forces alone, a hot topic that hitherto  had been part of a comprehensive consultation.

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So what happens next? It will take more than crowing at Britain’s humiliation and tut-tutting at the DUP

In the fudge over the border that Mick has just correctly described, reaction to Arlene Foster’s role is divided. The Guardian has grudging admiration for her principled stand rooted in her background as a border Protestant with traumatic experience.

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The two governments must stop huffing and sort out the latest mess together

Brian WalkerFormer BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London

The DUP should lift their veto. This could still be win:win all round

  New version with new information  Hands up those of you were surprised by the DUP veto? Honestly now. OK you got it right tonight at any rate. .No one has  ever won a prize for discovering  their YES gene. I admit  I thought May and Juncker would have squeaked through with words that made a clear enough distinction between continuing membership of the customs union and a  proposed parallel  customs arrangement for NI. Call it “regulatory alignment” if you …

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As spin becomes a vortex, a calm reading of positions on Brexit suggests progress is possible.

Even as we reach what we’re told is a climactic moment,  it’s easy enough  to see why the border problem is so hard to solve. It requires someone to go on the record to depart from a most cherished position.   Ireland would like the UK to remain within the single market and the customs union, or failing that, for Northern Ireland to do so. The British government echoed by the DUP have ruled both out in favour of a …

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The DUP are barking up the wrong tree

The DUP’s kneejerk reaction to the Times story that the Brexit sherpas are working on a plan to “avoid divergence” of regulations and standards on our island proves how insecure they feel the Union really is. According to the ancient rule of our politics that the insecure pay more attention to their opponents than their candid friends, they’ll receive perverse validation from Sinn Fein ‘s parallel rejection and their old jibe, “We always knew the Brits would betray ye. Whadida …

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Is this the magic bullet to sort the problems of Brexit and the border?

  New version:  The Times is reporting that agreement is close on “regulatory convergence” on the island of Ireland even if there is a divergence between the UK and the rest of the EU after Brexit. The agreement would involve the devolution of a package of measures to the Assembly to help maintain common standards and regulations for agribusiness and electricity, gas and water which are substantially integrated on the island. Pressure to restore the Executive would therefore increase. A …

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Ireland and the border has emerged as the current acid test. In their own interests, Leo Varadkar and Micheal Martin should give Theresa May space to pass it

The current British position is admirably described by James Forsyth in the Brexit leaning, Conservative supporting Spectator. I can do no better than to quote it at length. It covers a viewpoint that cannot be dismissed by ardent Remainers like me.  Whatever the mood music, it will be taken seriously in the chancelleries of Europe. For they see that the British are gradually shifting. The next few weeks are the  time for quiet diplomacy with the megaphone put away and the tweeting held in check.

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Robert Peston’s radical solutions for Brexit and for halting the decline of Britain

In the Guardian, do turn up  the trenchant and sweary encounter  between ace newspaper interviewer Decca Aitkenhead and Robert Peston, economics guru- cum- eccentric political interviewer, on  Brexit and the future of the nation. Peston is an acquired taste, a formerly buttoned -up guy who literally as we can see, has let his hair down since he went on TV late in life and longs to come across as spontaneously ordinary but can’t find quite the right notes. (that cringing-making …

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Domestic political turmoil renders the Brexit negotiations even more unpredictable. This time it’s not London’s fault

Compared with some other key leaders, Theresa May’s position is  looking remarkably stable for a change  as she flies into Brussels today for what’s being billed in London as crucial meetings with EU leaders including Council president Donald  Tusk. The Westminster lobby is reporting that she’ll be taking soundings over whether a British offer of a bigger divorce bill – £40 billion is being mentioned off the record  – would be enough to persuade EU leaders to allow Brexit talks …

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Out of left field, Sinn Fein launched the perfect storm. So let’s hear it for Leo

  Wouldn’t you know it? Sinn Fein put down a vote of no confidence first and so set the hare running. Can Fianna Fail afford to lag fortoise-like behind? In a sprung election no-one entirely wants just now, which party  holds the initiative in the tangled web of minority government and balf in. half out opposition?  Back wbere they still feel they belong for Fianna Fail under Micheal Martin? The Last hurrah for Gerry Adams or a rushed new hello …

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Another leak against the Brits, but Theresa’s not for budging

Another leak to RTE, another bout of Irish pressure, accompanied by Irish Times columnist Stephen Collins joining a chorus of “ contempt” for British tactics and urging his government to stand firm. The (British position that the) Border issue should be dealt with in phase two of the Brexit negotiations dealing with future trade rather than in phase one as the EU is insisting. This is an obvious attempt to use the Border as a bargaining tool in the negotiations …

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Amnesty for security forces foreshadowed in the DUP deal

Just a footnote to yesterday’s post on the government’s floating of an amnesty for security forces. The Irish News follows up predictably enough with angry responses to what they rightly report as the adoption of the recommendation of the Commons Defence Committee report  just before the general election. The committee, which includes DUP MP Gavin Robinson, said that the pursuit of members of the crown forces was “wholly oppressive and a denial of natural justice”. “It can be ended only …

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A plea to Gerry Adams from a Falls Road boy

In recent times we often hear the narrative that has been orchestrated so carefully by apologists for Sinn Fein – namely the huge personal risks that Adams and Mc Guinness took for peace. I do not believe that such an argument is credible. The people that really took the risks for peace down the years were those in the northern catholic community (and indeed outside it also) who defied the IRA and whose political and moral courage often cost them …

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The government need to come clean urgently on their bungled proposal for a security forces amnesty

After Sinn Fein held their meeting with Theresa May this afternoon,  Gerry Adams diverted from the apparent failure to make progress on restoring Stormont with a genuine issue: a potential amnesty from prosecution for security force members who served in the Troubles is to be floated by the British government. The Irish News carries the fullest version of the story by the PA.  What’s being floated is a statute of limitations in a fundamental and unilateral amendment to the 2014  Stormont …

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Brexit and the border is widening the gap between London and Dublin and depressing further the chances of a return to Stormont

It has started to happen. Will it continue?  Can it be reversed? The politics of Brexit  is openly dividing the UK and Irish governments and further polarising the DUP and Sinn Fein,  making a return to the Executive less likely than ever.  Predictably Brexit is increasingly becoming domesticated as the new big theme  in a revived unionist v nationalist struggle. What’s just happened?  The sequence was best described in a cool- headed column in the Indo by Dan O’Brien, chief …

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Gerry Adams and Robert Mugabe have something in common

How ironic that the eras of Mugabe and Adams are drawing to a close at roughly the same time. Both are men of blood. Both remained in office for unhealthily long periods of time, reflecting the essentially undemocratic nature of their political machines and their origins in armed insurgency. It now turns out that neither is departing immediately. Of course  there are significant differences. Adams will go with the adulation of his followers and  continuing influence. Mugabe led  the majority …

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