Confusion over the state of the Brexit negotiations increases anxiety as May’s cabinet prepares to decide on a formula

Civil society in both islands  looking on anxiously at contrasting stories about the state of the Brexit negotiations are speaking out. Persistent fears of a hard border has prompted a group of nationalists to  approach Leo Varadkar  to protect northern nationalists’ rights. This the second appeal of its kind in a year. Latest 4pm  Leo Varadkar said this afternoon Ireland is willing to consider proposals for a review clause in relation to the backstop for the Irish border. The backstop …

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What was that again about a breakthrough?

Yesterday to the Sunday Times, the British side was talking up the prospect of neutralising the backstop and forecasting the emergence of a winning formula. Today EU sources were clear that they were keeping the backstop in reserve and fully charged, while back home, the reported formula was being attacked by Leave and Remain.  By Tuesday we should know if there is enough agreement to call an EU special summit on 21st November. Full marks to Patrick Smyth of the …

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“Breakthrough on the backstop, claims the Sunday Times

In an “exclusive” pieced together from “dozens” of Whitehall and EU sources,  the Sunday Times claims that Theresa May has secured a deal that will keep the whole UK in the customs union for the transition.  A political declaration on  “a future economic partnership” (FEP)  will allow the UK to strike a Canada-style free trade deal that will appeal to Brexiteers. While the story doesn’t mention a specific time limit as demanded by the hardliners or a “break clause” floated …

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Can it be for real? Arlene is looking happy

While Mary Lou and friends were dismissing Brexit secretary Dominic Raab’s visit “ like a thief in the night” as  a “box ticking exercise”, Arlene  was  treating us to a rare public smile.  “Goodness, we have been here on a number of occasions and I think we are close to a deal that will work for Northern Ireland, that is what we want.” Raab was guardedly optimistic again at Stormont. But the  louder mood music came out of the intergovernmental conference …

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Trimble’s attack on the backstop has come too late

With prospects of a return to Stormont hovering around degrees absolute, the temperature is rising among unionists about the meaning of the backstop. They believe – and they’re not alone – that there is no outcome other than no deal that will not activate the backstop and “make Northern Ireland a protectorate of the EU.” Mixed messages are emerging as EU leaders have to decide whether to convene a special ratification summit on 21 November. Meanwhile a more parochial row …

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Backstop blues on both sides as another “deadline” approaches

Interesting that the Irish Times have published two opinion pieces this morning deviating a little from the paper’s  editorial line of unwavering support for the EU version of the backstop.  Newton Emerson accuses Varadakar of having “a tin ear” to unionist sensitivities while Stephen Collins bluntly urges Varadkar and Coveney to “ shut up.”  Sensitivities in both camps are heightening. The DUP are nervous that Theresa May will rat on them if she can get a deal that will pass …

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EU to offer “UK-wide customs treaty” and the backstop clause has changed

  The Sun and the Mail claim another “breakthrough” – but is it too good to be true? THERESA May got a Brexit boost today – as it emerged the EU will cave into her demands on the Irish backstop. But today RTE reported that the EU has accepted Mrs May’s plans could be workable as long as both sides sign a separate treaty to enshrine it into law. The compromise brings Britain and the EU a step closer to signing a …

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Time to stop making a fetish of the backstop and find a new formula via the GFA

Brian WalkerFormer BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London

Theresa May is shaping up for a fight. I rub my eyes, but for the first time yes, she even looks like a winner

Anonymous briefings from Brexiteer backbenchers claiming Theresa May is “entering the killing zone” and “ drinking in the last chance saloon” have backfired as the prime minister goes on the offensive in the Sun  in advance of a Commons statement on Monday afternoon.  Breaking the normal protocol of informing  MPs first, her Sun piece is a departure from her normal defensive stonewalling and a sign of new determination  to seize the initiative. Reports that she’s facing a cabinet revolt sound …

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The odds are narrowly on May surviving the week and staggering through to a withdrawal deal before Christmas

By a long way, more of the public demonstrated for a second  referendum yesterday than were threatening the prime minister in lurid language with nemesis on Wednesday. Just now though, it’s the MPs uttering the threats ( at least to journalists), who matter more. One prominent Brexiteer is making a distinctive gesture. In a further headache for May, the former Brexit minister Steve Baker yesterday tabled a series of amendments to the Northern Ireland Bill, which is due in the …

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Would “more time” bring us closer to chaos or breaking the backstop deadlock?

Will “more time” do it for Theresa May and the rest of us? The option of a longer transition is intended to provide more reassurance that special measures would not be needed to avoid a hard  border — even if the UK and the EU fail to implement a new trade deal by the end of 2020.   Because the EU is mildly encouraging,  the chorus of opposition  in Westminster is all the louder. Remainers are as dead against as Leavers  …

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Only now are both sides realising that the backstop can’t be blagged away

In single interviews it’s entirely appropriate for the presenter to play the devil’s advocate role. But in a long and pressing interview this morning on Radio 4’s Today programme  with Irish foreign minister  Simon Coveney, John Humphrys showed I believe a basic lack of understanding of the EU/Irish position of the backstop which partly explains why it’s  such a conundrum. I’m pretty sure it was more ignorance than tactic. All Humphrys  could do to fill the time was to keep …

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Congratulations to Anna Burns from Ardoyne, winner of the Man Booker prize, for taking the stereotype out of Belfast

  “The day Somebody McSomebody put a gun to my breast and called me a cat and threatened to shoot me was the same day the milkman died,” begins this strange and intriguing novel that tackles the Northern Ireland conflict from the perspective of an 18-year-old girl with no interest in the Troubles” writes the Guardian reviewer . Except  it isn’t about Belfast, not specifically. Neither place nor  people are named in Milkman. I’ve just started reading it. This is a  dystopian society …

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The case for the Union is far broader than the DUP’s. But is it compatible with a good deal?

Nobody can doubt that Brexit has challenged the stability of the Union, not only in Scotland and Northern Ireland but in England too. In a lecture in London last night he entitled “The Nightmare of History, Brexit, Ireland and the English Revolution,” Fintan O’Toole warmed to his theme, familiar to Irish Times readers, of pouring scathing contempt over the Brexit case, which he dismissed as post imperial “imaginings.” If he’s right and  Brexit is creating a revolution at least in …

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It’s neither breakthrough nor breakdown

I think we may safely say the point of crisis has arrived at last. It may last for some time. After the false optimism of Saturday, the backstop, the entire Brexit negotiation, the future of the government and the stability of the Union are all in play, as Theresa May “ branded the draft deal a non-starter”. The FT sums up the general gloomy view of the correspondents on Sunday night.. Brexit talks reached a dramatic stand-off in Brussels on …

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Ruth Davidson’s threat to quit changes the odds for the DUP

When the history of these fraught days comes to be written, the backing of Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson for the DUP position may be seen as the single most significant move. Her message is potent; if Northern Ireland is differentiated from GB , why not Scotland from England and Wales?  And that’s a gift to the SNP  and the cause of Scottish independence. Details emerged this afternoon of the letter she and Scottish secretary David Mundell sent to Theresa May. …

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May at bay and kamikaze tactics from Foster, with three days to go to the EU summit

Brian WalkerFormer BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London

How historians can provide correctives to “memory wars” in dealing with the past

 

The Ulster-born, Oxford-based historian Ian McBride has published what I take to be the essence of his evidence to the government’s consultation on dealing with the past. He discusses the potential role for professional historians in the proposed institutions prescribed for dealing with oral history, information retrieval and identifying themes and patterns in events.  He takes for granted that Sinn Fein are winning the battle of the narratives. This is hardly surprising. In a new era where “equality” between peoples and traditions is a legal requirement, unionists persist in playing a zero sum game they’re bound to lose, in which every nationalist or republican gain is written down as a unionist loss. The answer is not merely to provide a contrived balance but to tell fuller stories with an open mind. Thus, the exposure of collusion is complemented by an account of success in infiltrating the IRA.

While the suggested list of themes is far from exhaustive, it goes straight  to the heart of many controversies and follows the line of the best investigative journalism. However while concentrating on the causes celebres on all sides of the conflict,  he fails to mention the essential political contexts behind them, without which many of them might seem “random” or “mindless”. The absence of other than self serving insider accounts of state strategy and tactics is also  a yawning gap waiting to be filled.

McBride argues for a bigger role for historians than the  government envisages.  They have prescribed fairly tight control by government or government appointees for all the usual reasons, plus the additional one of  trying to allay fears that the local parties would lose all control over the process.

While McBride incidentally challenges  these restrictions, he is  more concerned here to establish historians’ credentials than describing the essential requirements for exercising them. His appeal is professional and non-partisan, while insisting (over- apologetically perhaps, to head off partisan retorts), that everyone brings a background to their work, consciously or not. His case can credibly  be set alongside the high reputation of the writing of contemporary Irish history. His one anxiety is that a professional approach would be too dull (my word) for the general reader and register little impact on political debate. He would redress this in part by being unafraid to make moral judgements – in other words, concluding who on the basis of the evidence in different cases bears the greater blame. Risky as this would be, it brings the themes down to human level. But it raises the fundamental question: can history, especially recent history,

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Fresh concessions to DUP reported as negotiations near climax

Plans to make the backstop redundant and more time to devise a permanent substitute  to help keep the DUP on side, are among the ideas being touted, as the Brexit negotiations on EU withdrawal reach a climax. The FT reports on ” the tunnel phase”     when no new  proposals  will be published by either side  until the deal is done – or not  Before the weekend is out, negotiators want to agree a complete draft treaty, defining the terms …

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Can we manage the challenge to our identities created by Brexit?

There’s no doubt Brexit is creating fresh and unsought tensions over how to manage as well as express national identities. Two pieces today are vivid examples of the problems created by Brexit on these islands. Newton Emerson develops a theme raised here several times, but has  yet to reach  the top of the political agenda. How do Northern residents born and bred assert their continuing rights as EU and Irish citizens? Sinn Fein naturally want voting rights for Northerners in …

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