Brian Walker – Page 24 – Slugger O'Toole

Crisp advice to Parliament on what to ponder over Christmas

Brian Walker on December 20, 2018, 10:31 am

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Perhaps the most celebrated of constitutional experts Vernon Bogdanor, has no doubts about what should happen next. The irony is that there is a much greater consensus among MPs than is apparent from the posturing of May’s opponents. Kenneth Clarke believes that about 80% of MPs are against a no-deal Brexit, while nearly all MPs accept that there should not be a hard Irish border, which would be incompatible with the spirit of the Good Friday agreement of 1998. The withdrawal agreement achieves …

Theresa, No Deal Project Fear is a cruel insult to our intelligence

Brian Walker on December 18, 2018, 11:50 pm

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The latest Project Fear is a UK government analysis of the impact of No Deal on the Republic’s trade. It says that 80% of their trade with Europe passes over the British land bridge to ports such as Dover. No deal barriers causing expected congestion there would have a catastrophic effect on the Irish economy. The aim is to soften up Varadkar’s apparently implacable support for the backstop. Project Fear is accompanied by Project Puff up and Soothe the DUP, …

Brexit has reversed the stereotypes of Britain and Ireland

Brian Walker on December 18, 2018, 5:11 pm

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Brexit has turned British, Irish and continental stereotypes on their heads, historian Arthur Aughey has observed in a brilliant essay in the Belfast Telegraph One long-standing explanation is that the British and continental Europeans (especially the French) approach political problems with very different mindsets… On the one hand, Michel Barnier’s style – and the European Council’s – considers British reluctance to define principles as either proof of poor preparation or as inability to clarify its objectives. That, more or less, …

May’s desperate tactics are unworthy and will fail to give her victory

Brian Walker on December 17, 2018, 10:31 pm

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Tactically Theresa May is being astute. But then she has always run Brexit as a party strategy. Strategically in the national interest, she’s risking a disaster. By continuing to face MPs with a binary choice as late as mid January – My Deal or No Deal – she’s squeezing the time available for any Plan Bs to emerge but she’s raised her immediate chances of staying in office. This of course assumes the divided cabinet will play along and the …

“I can take the despair. It’s the hope I can’t stand.” Theresa May in Brussels? Answer. Worse: humiliation

Brian Walker on December 13, 2018, 11:53 pm

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What was Theresa May actually expecting from the EU 27 leaders in Brussels? There was always the desperate hope for one of those last minute rush to settle against the declared odds. Instead… headlines… Daily Telegraph ( Brexiteer) Theresa May was humiliated once again by EU leaders last night as her attempts to improve her Brexit deal were thrown back in her face. The Sun (Brexiteer) and coiner of dreadful puns BRUSSELS ROUT Theresa May told to get stuffed by …

What should Theresa May do now? Stop fudging and pledge to stay in the customs union

Brian Walker on December 12, 2018, 11:59 am

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Tonight if she wins by whatever margin, Theresa May should declare a victory and press on. No messing with hints that she’ll quit voluntarily in March next year. She needs more than reassurances from the EU that the backstop is dispensable. The huge question is, what can replace it? She should accept the challenge of the core Brexiteers and pledge that the UK will remain the customs union indefinitely. Under the looming shadow of No Deal, she should go …

No sign of Ireland blinking over the backstop, as Theresa May races around Europe raising the bogey of No Deal

Brian Walker on December 11, 2018, 1:48 pm

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Theresa May at bay threw down one effective challenge to the massed ranks of her critics. “Come clean: do you want Brexit or not? “No”, chorused the SNP and she rolled her eyes. For as long as Parliament cannot settle on an agreed alternative she holds a narrow initiative. In the kingdom of the blind, the one-eyed woman is queen. In her whistle -stop tour of continental capitals, her ploy now is to seek “reassurances”, a time honoured feature of …

Keep your eye on the glimmer of light in the Big Picture. But first we need to re-examine the backstop, sooner rather than later.

Brian Walker on December 10, 2018, 1:04 pm

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Although the sight of it is darkly occluded, the shape of things to come is emerging through the fog. Whatever immediate political strategy Theresa May chooses today, the dream of the hard line Brexiteers is in process of disintegration. Whatever the political turmoil today, the UK will retain some sort of close relationship with the EU. In Northern Ireland, unionists will have a closer relationship with the Republic and with nationalists generally – and I would argue with only slightly …

The DUP would be fools to vote for no confidence in the government and boost the chances of a No Deal default

Brian Walker on December 7, 2018, 4:33 pm

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Politics is in a vortex of fast moving events over which the government has little control. According to the likely scenario, Theresa May will lose the meaningful vote badly next Tuesday night. What happens next is in uncharted waters. But this is how the meaningful vote fits into the prescribed timetable, courtesy of the FT: The vote is a legal obligation under the UK’s 2018 EU Withdrawal Act, which says such a vote must take place “before the European Parliament decides whether …

A riposte to David McWilliams

Brian Walker on December 5, 2018, 3:12 pm

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Out of interest… It was surprising that the Financial Times should publish a long triumphalist critique of Northern Ireland by the economist David McWilliams without comment from other economists (“ The final frontier”, Life & Arts, December 1). Mr McWilliams claims that most people in Northern Ireland want to stay in the EU. It is true that 56 per cent voted for the UK to remain in the EU. He echoes Sinn Féin in claiming that this meant many unionists …

Theresa May’s new olive branch to the DUP is unlikely to impress

Brian Walker on December 5, 2018, 3:01 pm

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So was there something worth hiding that’s now been exposed under duress? In my opinion, it’s not so much a smoking gun, more a blast of painful shotgun pellets. DUP deputy leader Nigel Dodds was bound to describe as “devastating” the Attorney General’s full legal advice on the withdrawal agreement that the government fought so hard to withhold yesterday – and lost. In a statement this afternoon Mr Dodds rises to new heights with the description of the backstop as …

DUP are threatening May with collapse unnecessarily, even in their own cause

Brian Walker on December 3, 2018, 1:09 am

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It looks worse and worse for Theresa May as a crucial week begins. The Times reports: Theresa May was under fresh pressure last night as the DUP threatened to abandon her in a confidence vote if she failed to get her Brexit deal through parliament. Party sources said that they were considering the move, which would leave the prime minister without a Commons majority, over fears that her plan would create a border between Northern Ireland and the rest …

Theresa May’s survival depends on cross party support for Plan B. Will she concede or quit?

Brian Walker on December 2, 2018, 1:18 pm

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First things first. Are we back to contemplating the DUP holding the balance of power? The Sunday Telegraph and Sunday Times report what they rate as exciting new moves for an already potentially fateful week. The Democratic Unionist Party will join Labour and other opposition parties on Monday in a bid to force the Government to publish its legal advice on Brexit – a move that could delay the crucial vote on Theresa May’s plan. In an explosive alliance that will rock the …

Game of chicken is hotting up

Brian Walker on December 1, 2018, 5:23 pm

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Brexit tensions are rising towards fever pitch. The Times story puts it neatly : If you step back from the noise surrounding Theresa May’s struggle to get her deal through parliament there are really only four Brexit options left on the table: Mrs May’s deal (possibly tweaked); no deal; a second referendum; and a Norway-style soft Brexit. Each option has its advocates in the Commons but none yet has enough backing to command majority support in the House. Ultimately MPs …

Yes, No Deal would be a disaster, but don’t fall for May’s claim that it’s the only alternative

Brian Walker on November 29, 2018, 1:42 pm

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Whatever you do don’t take Theresa May literally when she insisted before the Commons Liaison Committee that the stark choice lies between the withdrawal agreement and No Deal. Granted, re-opening the deal would be no breeze… “What is clear is that any extension to article 50, anything like that, reopens the negotiations, reopens the deal. And at that point the deal can go, frankly, in any direction…. I think the most important reason why we should not be going down …

The DUP are waking up to the idea that Fortress Ulster has no future. They should be encouraged, not abused

Brian Walker on November 26, 2018, 12:29 pm

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They are still talking in euphemisms. They are desperate to avoid finding themselves suddenly on the losing side without any notion of the outcome. Goodness knows what Theresa May can offer to sell the withdrawal agreement when she visits Northern Ireland on her nationwide tour. Experience of local negotiations argues strongly against side deals and the arguments have been so well rehearsed already. Entirely wisely, the DUP are for once hinting at a solution to the backstop conundrum other than …

Why would the DUP NOT support a soft Brexit for the final deal that would get rid of border problems?

Brian Walker on November 25, 2018, 2:05 pm

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With the cabinet splitting every which way in all directions, Theresa May comes into her own as the ace stonewaller to every burning hypothetical question. As the fateful moment of signing the withdrawal agreement arrived in Brussels this morning, the prime minister was still insisting to the massed ranks of sceptics back home: “This isn’t about me. It’s not the case that there is another negotiation to be done. This is the deal that’s been agreed, it’s the only deal …

Peter Robinson urges the DUP to drop their ban on an Irish Language Act and get real about restoring Stormont

Brian Walker on November 24, 2018, 1:37 am

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Elder statesmen a.k.a. retired politicians often grow wiser in retirement after shedding the burdens of office and the cares of party management. Sometimes their advice is welcome; sometimes it’s a stalking horse for a change of direction by their successors; sometimes it’s an embarrassment to them. We will soon know which it is this time. Conforming to type, Peter Robinson, for over forty years the usually steely self- disciplined deputy leader then leader of the DUP has offered some …

Too many are unconvinced by Theresa May’s claim of alternatives later to the backstop. And some are prepared to ditch Northern Ireland

Brian Walker on November 23, 2018, 1:22 am

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What matters next has changed. Summit signing on Sunday apart, the next real stage of Brexit is not about Brussels but how MPs will react to what’s in front of them. The political declaration published today was full of warm words for a deep and meaningful relationship but it is clear that British options for striking out independently are constrained by the legal terms of the withdrawal agreement featuring the backstop. Try and she might to hint at a different …

DUP take care. Unionism needs UK support to develop a viable vision

Brian Walker on November 21, 2018, 8:35 pm

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Alex Kane’s position as the voice of reasoned unionism is confirmed by the remarkable fact that he’s invited to write for all the main papers which are read in Northern Ireland. He has just delivered the latest version of his message to encourage the creation of Unionist Unity (my caps) to meet the challenges of special status for Northern Ireland with the EU against the background of the coming potential nationalist majority. If that means killing off the last illusions …