From hot house London (figuratively as well as literally)., I’m dismayed but no longer surprised that the trend of unionist opinion over the still unfolding Donaldson scandal may be diverting from the cul de sac of the DUP to the black hole of TUV. I’m picking this up from Andy Pollak’s post where he speculates on the likely impact of the extent of the scandal on the DUP’s fortunes at the next Assembly election. What the DUP establishment knew and what they may have covered up is naturally enough the subject of fevered speculation and comment. But that is the obvious stuff.
What Andy homes in on is a conspiracy worthy of Sinn Fein which he heard from Alex Kane who I think of as the voice of sane unionism. The incendiary claim coming of course from Jim Allister is the alleged real reason why Donaldson performed his about turn on the Windsor Framework and forced a return to the Assembly. The British government must have blackmailed him suspects Jim. There can be no rational explanation in Jim’s universe.
We can accept that the grossness of the scandal touches perhaps the most sensitive nerve of right wing evangelical Protestant sensibility, the one that triggers hypocrisy in the presence of outrageous behaviour perpetrated by the self-selected God’s Elect. Among the mass ranks of the betrayed is a kind of baleful innocence that can degenerate into a self destructive Wrath when they see that the world they created for themselves is shrinking. It is even tempting some of them to pull down the temple at Stormont. Lile the deeply shocked people everywhere the many decent souls among them deserve some sympathy at having to confront grossly abusive behaviour inside their own ranks even though it extends in one form or another through the Christian churches to the Magdalen laundries and the corridors of Muckamore hospital.
But translating shock into politics, the unfortunate instinct is to dig in and circle the wagons. It is such a delusion to believe that the historic implacability of unionism they indulge as existential principle that achieved partition a century ago works today. It finally ceased with direct rule in 1972. Everybody knew it in the hearts if not their voices. With a demographic balance of even 60:40 single party rule failed in the most basic duty of government to keep basic law and order even before the guns came out. It lacked basic consent beyond the ranks of government supporters, the key requirement of any democratic government
Back in 1973 a year after the Fall, there was never the ghost of a chance that majority unionist government would be restored. The funny thing is, most of them including Paisley knew it but they couldn’t find a new position to stand on. You could almost see the struggle going on inside the minds of Bill Craig and Glen Barr, UWC strike champions, who changed their tune too late.
Unionists could have won support over the Anglo Irish Agreement in 1985 which wrongly disenfranchised them, as the future Irish President Mary Robinson, a strong human rights supporter argued. But they chose to resign their seats and fight by elections, (losing one,) without political impact. (Pay attention Nigel Farage).
The confidence and supply deal to keep Theresa May in power for a while may have seemed a big deal but it ended up with a hard line Brexit and a fig leaf for Assembly consent they despise in the Windsor Framework.
The fact is, basic political nous may never have deserted Donaldson. It is a far, far more likely explanation than blackmail for him overegging the Framework to get MLA s off their boycott hook. The most uncharitable explanation is that the concealment and deviousness of his appalling private life applied to his politics. And that of course will provide the perfect excuse for his implacable critics to discredit his- in my view obviously correct- judgement to return to the Assembly, which for unionists especially, is the only show in town.
Unionists believe they have a point when they say the Union is being gradually undermined. They’re fed up being given little lectures on civics. They resented being criticised when Arlene Foster had enough power to force a U turn on Theresa May when she was actually in Brussels to make the deal. The border in the Irish Sea happened anyway after May departed . However it was glossed, it weakened the concept of an integrated Union. And it happened without the consent of all Northern Ireland voters as happeneed with Anglo Irish Agreement of 1985. But it was also part of the bigger story of Brexit. It wasn’t designed specifically to do the dirty on unionists.
Unionists should try to remember that consent is the big essential and always has been. It depends neither on Great Britain nor the Republic. The NI Union is politically different because its MPs not being members of the main UK party structures cannot affect the balance of power inside them and the influence that goes with it.
The terms for the Union are at least transparent. They are enshrined in GFA structures. I commend the British -Irish, North-South and NI internal power sharing structures for expressing the natural relationships of the people of these islands. All unionists have to do is to work them and make the Union as attractive as nationalists are making Unity attractive. In that enterprise the status quo has a head start. The two can even be reconciled in attractiveness for everybody – the best of both worlds Instead perhaps, stand by a new conspiracy theory in which Lou Haigh, Colum Eastwood’s partner is working on new plan for Irish Unity when she is given an influential role in Andy Burham’s cabinet. There is not the slightest evidence of it. But we may expect the likes of Jim Allister to keep sniffing outside her door.
Meanwhile….an intriguing field of exploration so far surprisingly neglected is the impact of the Hillsborough Law finally not exempting MI5 and MI6 from the duty of candour for all public bodies, although with “safeguards for national security” still be closely examined.
The Law’s (at least moral) relevance to the Kenova report on Stakeknife, the Chinook helicopter crash and a whole range of legacy cases is obvious.
Former BBC journalist and manager in Belfast, Manchester and London, Editor Spolight; Political Editor BBC NI; Current Affairs Commissioning editor BBC Radio 4; Editor Political and Parliamentary Programmes, BBC Westminster; former London Editor Belfast Telegraph. Hon Senior Research Fellow, The Constitution Unit, Univ Coll. London
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