Ireland have never beaten the All Blacks in Auckland, losing 42-19 last time they played there ahead of the 2-1 series win in 2022. The All Blacks last lost there back the amateur era in 1994 to a last minute “try from the end of the world” scored by Jean-Luc Sadourny after a nine player passing movement instigated by the French captain Philippe Saint-André from inside his own 22. That was also the last time the All Blacks lost a test series prior to the Ireland win.
It is interesting that New Zealand chose Auckland as the venue for their Ireland rather than France test match this season. They still haven’t gotten over that series loss to Ireland. But can an Ireland team, missing Caelan Doris, Mac Hansen, Tommy O’Brien, Jack Crowley, Andrew Porter, Paddy McCarthy, Jack Boyle, and Ryan Baird, not to mention James Lowe, emulate that historic triumph? In theory, anything is possible in a once off test.
Ireland lost the 2012 series 3-0 against the All Blacks with a 60-0 whitewash defeat in the last game. So, a humiliating defeat is also not without precedent. That Ireland team contained Rob Kearney, Keith Earls, Brian O’Driscoll, Johnny Sexton, Conor Murray, Peter O’Mahony, Seán O’Brien, Donncha Ryan, Mike Ross, Rory Best, Cian Healy, and with Donncha O’Callaghan, Ronan O’Gara, and Andrew Trimble on the bench. Not too shabby, I think you will agree.
With bonus point wins over France and Italy already under their belts, you can expect the All Blacks to be fully locked and loaded against Ireland. This could get ugly, or it could also be this Ireland team’s finest hour. So, what will our team be and what are our chances? I expect Farrell to pick the following team, assuming all are fit.
15. Keenan
14. Baloucoune
13. Ringrose
12. McCloskey
11. O’Brien
10. Prendergast
9. Gibson Park
8. Conan
7. Van Der Flier
6. Beirne
5. Ryan
4. McCarthy
3. Furlong
2. Sheehan (Capt.)
1. O’Toole
Finishers:
16. Kelleher
17. Loughman
18. Clarkson
19. Prendergast
20. Timoney
21. Doak
22. Frawley
23. Osborne
There are a few contentious points in this selection, mostly relating to the bench. Many, no doubt would like to go for the front row that closed out the Japan match so well – Bohan, Stewart, and Illo. I believe Farrell will go for experience. The All Blacks in Auckland is not Japan. Many would also like to see Jansen given another chance after his POTM performance against Japan. Again, I believe Farrell will go for the more experienced Prendergast, his club captain in Connacht.
Casey did not play well against Japan, so I believe Doak will get his chance. He has shown a calmness under pressure which will be needed in the Eden Park cauldron. He may even take over the place kicking duties if Frawley has replaced Prendergast. To my mind he is the new Murray in this squad. Finally, Henshaw will have pushed hard for a place, but Farrell will likely prefer the more versatile Osborne, especially with Baloucoune carrying a suspect hamstring. Aki can really only cover 12.
Structurally, we badly need Rob Baloucoune to be fully fit, as he is the only really fast player in the squad. Supporters of Jacob Stockdale will be disappointed he was taken off early against Japan – a move which required a reorganisation of the back line. However, I don’t think Farrell was saving him for Eden Park. He doesn’t get involved enough and doesn’t break enough tackles when he does. Loose head remains a vulnerability which the All Blacks will no doubt attempt to exploit. If we can hold our own at scrum time, we will be in with a chance.
Overall, its not a bad team, but you have to be truly great to win at Eden Park. We have structural deficiencies at scrum, line-out, and kick-offs which we need to remedy to be even in with a chance. This All Black team doesn’t rank with the greats, but still contains great players like Ardie Savea, Cam Roigard, Jordie Barrett, Damian McKenzie, and all-time record try scorer Will Jordan. They’ve added Rieko Ioane to the squad for this fixture, and he, together, with Jordie Barrett, should provide a lot of inside information on the Irish players. It’s hard to find a weakness and they can play with a pace and precision that has eluded Ireland so far.
Morale in the Ireland camp should be at an all-time end of season high with bonus point wins against Australia and Japan secured. 33 out of the 36 players have seen game time and there have been some auspicious debuts and performances by less experienced players. It’s not quite Mission Impossible – Paddy Power has New Zealand at 6/1 on, with Ireland at 2/9. It’s game on!
Frank Schnittger is the author of Sovereignty 2040, a future history of how Irish re-unification might work out. He has worked in business in Dublin and London and, on a voluntary basis, for charities in community development, education, restorative justice and addiction services.
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