The US and Israel are gearing up for another attack on Iran, but should it happen, the signs are that it will be far more globally consequential than before. Iran and Israel have been in a proxy war for years. Lately, Israel has had the upper hand in it, decisively weakening Iranian-funded proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and the Gaza Strip. Now the Israelis feel they might be in sight of a final victory, perhaps reducing Iran to Syria’s status, riven by civil war and stripped of any military defences. Such is the Israelis’ hold on the US government, Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have the power to manoeuvre the US into going along with this plan. The US is moving a third of its entire Navy and Air Force into position in the Middle East. The largest deployment since the eve of the invasion of Iraq.
But what if the Israelis and Americans are miscalculating? By being so open about their desire to see the destruction of Iran as a sovereign state and the elimination of its leadership class, they have backed the Iranians into an existential corner. It’s all or nothing for them now. Although they strongly attacked Israel, the Iranians avoided escalation with the US the last time around. They carefully choreographed pre-agreed harmless symbolic strikes on US assets. Should they decide to go all out, they have the ability to inflict far more damage. This time will be different. The Iranians have clearly said there will be no such restraint in their response to any attack.
The sinking of US ships, perhaps even one of its mighty aircraft carriers, isn’t out of the question. But they have a far easier and quicker target – the US economy. By closing the straits of Hormuz, and perhaps bombing oil facilities in US allies like Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, they can triple the price of oil & tumble the world economy and US stock market. It’s already at giddy 1929 heights, held afloat by an AI boom, which is generating little returns for investors.
Donald Trump knows this, and I suspect deep down doesn’t want to take the chance. But are events out of his control? Such is the extraordinary power of Israel in American politics that it feels like they are more in charge of America’s military decisions than Donald Trump is. Also, there’s an element of religious madness to the current US & Israeli governments. Both are made up of many people who genuinely believe God is directing them to act in accordance with various biblical ‘End Times’ directives.
Is the US just bluffing? Perhaps, but the signs are that it is not. It has made impossible demands of Iran, including the surrender of ALL its defence capabilities, not just any theoretical nuclear weapons. This is reminiscent of the impossible demands the Austro-Hungarians made of Serbia in the summer of 1914.
Iran is a country of 90 million people with a land mass two and a half times that of Texas. Unlike Iraq, their geography makes them almost impossible to invade. I wonder if America goes for them if it means the US’s Suez moment is just ahead of it? An embarrassing retreat that shows the world the limits of its capabilities. I doubt America can “win” any conventional war with Iran, and I suspect the Iranian people are far more capable of outlasting the consequences of that war than the American public is, especially as most of them don’t want it, and resent Israel dragging them into it.
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