Four Ironies and a Leap of Faith

Mike Nesbitt MLA is the Leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, ahead of the party conference he writes for Slugger

On the week of the 2025 Ulster Unionist Party Conference, I offer some thoughts to Slugger readers, inspired by the movie, 4 Weddings and a Funeral (I hope you don’t have to look it up, but, in fairness, it’s as old as the 1994 ceasefires and my children don’t remember that either).

Irony One is that the biggest obstacle to constitutional change for people like me was the Provisional IRA. Their bombs and bullets were an attempt to coerce me into something we did not want. It was never, ever going to work. In fact, if the PIRA hadn’t blown up my family’s business, you might never have heard of me.

Irony Two is that following the constitutional question being effectively parked with the 1998 Agreement, the organisation that has done most to put it back on the agenda is the DUP, not least with their support for Brexit.

Irony Three is that unionists don’t always recognise that one of the people who understands best that no-one is ready for a Border Poll is the Taoiseach, Micheal Martin. Witness his recent statement on same not happening anytime soon.

And irony Four is that while unionists have always looked over their shoulder at Irish Nationalists as the biggest threat to Northern Ireland’s place in the Union, Irish Nats have been knocked off the gold medal spot on the rostrum by English Nationalism, personified by Nigel Farage MP.

Here’s the Paradox. Any sensible unionist looking at Brexit for clues that could be applied come a Border Poll will conclude you should never put it to the people until you have thought through the consequences of change to the nth degree. So, what happens to state pensions, to state benefits, to the civil service, to the Health Service. But it’s not just the big ticket issues. What about your nearest post-box. Is it still red, or is it now green, and do you care either way? But paradoxically, the same people who understand all that, accuse any unionist of engaging in the debate of being a Judas, a traitor and, of course, a Lundy!

When there is a problem the first thing you should do is name it. Then deal with it, openly, transparently and honestly. And there is an issue with unionism’s failure to properly articulate the case for Northern Ireland to remain in the United Kingdom.

For a long time, Treasury in London have made a simple point about Northern Ireland. How come we spend more tax per head of population than any other nation or region of the Kingdom, but generate fewer tax pounds than anyone else? It was Prime Minister David Cameron’s opening gambit over a decade ago at the Stormont House talks and the only thing that has changed since then is the RHI scandal. You will recall the Renewable Heat Incentive? Treasury certainly does. It was so perversely warped that its incentive to switch from conventional heating systems that for every bag of wood pellets you burned, you were reimbursed at a higher rate than the sum you paid for the pellets in the first place. Cash for ash.

It was a debacle – and in a way a gift for Treasury, because it gave them reason to tell their political masters than we are not to be trusted with money. That is the true, lasting and potentially devastating legacy of the DUP’s RHI scandal.

I crave stability and a political agenda of Hope through Prosperity, two concepts promised in 1998 but not yet delivered in sufficient quantities to enough of our people. Perhaps surprisingly, for the first time, every major political party operating in Northern Ireland has a reason to make this place work. Yes, our motivations are different, but that is no obstacle to working together to deliver.

The problem with constitutional change like Brexit is that it’s destabilising, confusing and ultimately disappointing. So my reaction to the call for a Border Poll is simple – one constitutional leap of faith is enough.