Alliance at a Crossroads and How Will Their Choices Shape The Next Assembly?

An interesting article from Suzanne Breen (it’s behind a paywall but worth reading if you have a subscription) in ‘The Belfast Telegraph’ as our political parties grapple with the recent Lucid Talk poll results which saw the TUV reach third place behind Sinn Féin and the DUP but, crucially, ahead of the Alliance party.

As Suzanne writes “Alliance has problems, and it knows it…on 12%, it’s been relegated to fourth position by the TUV which is now one point ahead. “The poll is a kick up the a**e for us,” says an insider. “It’s not good, but it’s very much reversible, and we know what needs to be done.”

Suzanne reports that Alliance might be preparing for opposition after the next Stormont election both to differentiate itself from the other parties in government and because of the increasing appeal of the SDLP and its pitch of a new Ireland to the ‘others’ bloc.

This begs the following questions IF the next Assembly matches recent polling and IF Alliance opts for opposition.

1.) If the Alliance exits the Executive, who would get the Justice Minister portfolio? A Nationalist has never held the role and this is increasingly starting to grate with some, but Unionism has been adamant that they don’t want a Sinn Féin minister to hold the role.

2.) On current polling, the DUP will likely end up with a plurality rather than a majority of Unionist seats and a stable Executive will need a third party. Will the Ulster Unionists follow the Alliance and the SDLP into opposition or will they remain within the Executive?

3.) Matthew O’Toole has won plaudits by being the de facto leader of the Opposition at Stormont, but will he and the SDLP find themselves overshadowed by Naomi Long and the Alliance party in holding the Executive to account? And how far will the Opposition parties co-operate given the Alliance and the SDLP are increasingly in direct competition with each other whilst a possibly larger TUV cohort will be pursuing their own agenda?

May 2027 is nearly two years away and much can change between now and then, but it looks like it will be anything but boring both in the lead up and the aftermath!

Slugger Team

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