Jim Beaming: LucidTalk poll…

It is unusual for NI to have a period of more than two years between elections. It has only happened twice before in the last 50 years.

With last year’s Westminster election receding rapidly into the background, the next planned elections will not take place until May 2027. And they will also be unusual, with the Assembly and Council elections due at the same time, which only happens once every 20 years.

A party that does well in those elections will have a strong local base for the following four years, a party that losses much ground will be severely disadvantaged for a long time.

That is why all the parties will be watching their opinion poll ratings very closely, even this far out from their next electoral test. And each party, in their different ways, faces a big challenge.

They will be scouring the new LucidTalk poll in Saturday’s Belfast Telegraph, none with more satisfaction than Jim Allister.

TUV

For once a “No Change” result is the most significant figure in a poll.

This shows that the TUV’s jump in support following Allister’s triumph in North Antrim looks to be consolidating. This not only suggests opportunities for the TUV, but it has implications for the other parties.

We have been here before, of course. Throughout 2021 the TUV topped 10%, hitting 14% at one point. This threw the DUP into a spin, ejecting Eileen Foster, then Edwin Poots from the leadership in quick succession,before settling on Jeffrey Donaldson. Only when the DUP crashed the Assembly did it start to claw back the support from the TUV.

The first challenge for the TUV will be to stop this support melting away again. The TUV has two big problems to overcome. Firstly, apart from North Antrim, their support has a wide geographical spread. This makes it hard for the party to win Assembly seats unless their NI total vote share exceeds 8%. The second is organisational.

To make gains in Stormont and the Councils they need a much-improved branch structure, central organisation, and seat targeting. They also need to have at least one credible potential leadership successor in the wings to provide a guarantee that the party has a life after Allister. Otherwise they will find it difficult to attract the talent they would need to turn decent vote shares into actual seats.

DUP

The DUP faces two related challenges. It must undercut the TUV, forcing that party below 8% to a level where it provides useful transfers to DUP candidates, but pose little threat to DUP seats. And it must grow its own share back to 28/29% to put itself into contention against Sinn Féin.

In previous electoral cycles the DUP successfully responded to TUV challenges by matching the TUV offer to loyalist voters. But that tactic was abandoned when the DUP returned to the Assembly.

It is hard to see what they can do now, other than hold tight and hope that the passage of time will reduce loyalist concerns around the Windsor Framework. This is even more true now that they have finally realised that the Stormont Brake is not directly connected to any other part of the machinery.

There was a time when the frequency of Union flags flying from public buildings was an all-consuming issue. But the sky did not fall in, and the issue no longer carries political heft. A couple of years, during which the post Brexit arrangements increasingly become just another fact of life which few people notice, might sap the momentum out of the TUV. Provided the DUP can resist picking at the sore.

Sinn Féin

The challenge to Sinn Féin is to retain or exceed the 31% they achieved in the last Council elections, otherwise they could slip back in council seats. At 28% they could expect to hold their Stormont seats but would lose councillors.

With their southern momentum stalled, up to five more years on the Dáil opposition benches, and the First Minister position already in their hands, they could have a hard job to maintain the “onwards and upwards” spirit amongst all of their activists and voters.

Ironically, what they really need is for the DUP to start competing for the top spot in opinion polls. The threat of the DUP taking back the FM position would be the best motivator for more marginal SF supporters. So, for Sinn Féin, the TUV figure will be unwelcome news.

Alliance

The challenge for Alliance is that, while 14% should see them hold the gains they made in 2022 and 2023, the conditions for significant further growth may not be present.

The Alliance surge delivered for the party when it could appeal to voters to get Stormont working again. Now Stormont is working again, but it is not being seen to deliver. Alliance can go on beating the drum about the need for institutional reform to deliver a form of government which is capable of taking and implementing long-term changes to health, environment and the economy. But if the UK government has no appetite for such reform, and if the Executive still seems to be achieving little in two years time, what will be the Alliance proposition at the next election?

Can they find a way of attracting additional voters whilst being tied to an underperforming Executive? Or do they have to simply hope that other parties will make mistakes from which they can profit?

UUP

The challenge for the UUP is similar to that for Alliance. How can it find a way to attract new support?

But whereas Alliance is overwhelming the leading party within its Designation, the UUP has to jostle from a secondary position within its own. If the DUP judges that it either cannot, or does not wish, to make the changes necessary to attract back TUV supporters (by collapsing the Assembly), it might make a concerted effort to attract UUP supporters. Although that would be an uncharacteristically bold move by the DUP, how would the UUP respond if it happened?

SDLP

The challenge for the SDLP is that a number of their MLA seats are held with alarmingly small first preference vote shares. They could add 2 or even 3 percentage points to their 2022 tally without picking up an extra seat. They probably need to work very hard just to stand still in the Assembly.

But 11% would permit them to increase their Council seats for the first time since 1993.

A 1% gain from last time is statistically meaningless, so does not yet tell us much about any impact from the change of leadership. But the slow and steady climb back since their nadir of 6% in August and October 2023 might suggest that their move into Opposition (albeit forced on them) is doing them good. It will be worth keeping an eye on that.

Other Parties

This 1% change is meaningless. It could be nothing more than a drop from 1.5% to 1.4% in the unrounded figures.