It’s not often I get all my predictions right, so I’m going to blow my own trumpet a little here. In a preview of Round 5 of the URC, written for the Irish Rugby Fan Forum, I predicted not only four wins for the Irish provinces, but got the broad shape of those victories right.
Those results mean all four provinces are in the top 6 of the URC table (1. Leinster, 2. Glasgow, 3. Ulster, 4. Connacht, 5. Edinburgh, 6 Munster) and all four Welsh sides are below Zebre in 10th. place in the table. So far only Connacht have had to face a South African team with a World Cup winner, (Lukhanyo Am) in their side, so we can expect the South African sides to move up the table as their World Cup stars return.
The Irish provinces were thus fortunate to meet South African sides without their stars and, in the case of Ulster and Connacht, against teams having had pretty disastrous tours in Europe. It will only get more difficult after this, and it is hard to see an upside for the Welsh regions coming off four losses in round 4. In round 5 Cardiff could only draw with Zebre, neither side won a bonus point in Dragon’s defeat of Ospreys, and Scarlets were trounced by Leinster. The URC’s only unbeaten side, Benetton, lost that record way to Glasgow.
Ulster 24 Lions 17
Prediction: Ulster win, but probably not without the usual dramatics and fallow periods during the game.
“Fallow period” is probably a kind description of Ulster’s opening 10 minutes when they couldn’t get out of their own 22 and gifted the Lions any number of scoring opportunities which the latter couldn’t take in the torrential downpour that afflicted the game. Both sides made numerous mistakes with the Ulster line-out, in particular a source of problems for Ulster.
But fair dues to Ulster, they have shown considerable resilience of late, dug deep, and got back to 7-7 before again conceding a try to be 14-7 down at the break. It could have been more, had another Lion’s try not been ruled out for a minor knock-on in the build-up.
But the “dramatics” came after half time when Ulster scored a fine try by Stockdale and Herring drove impressively off a maul. Ulster could even have got a bonus point had a second touchdown by Herring been allowed, but then again, the Lions went also close to the try line in the end game.
For Ulster Scott Wilson confirmed the favourable impression he had made off the bench on his debut last week and the bench generally had a positive impact – including Lorcan McLoughlin on his debut. Ulster are learning to grind out the results without playing particularly well. I doubt the Lions will leave their tour of Europe with too many happy memories other than their 24-23 last gasp win over Scarlets. It wasn’t their night in Ravenhill.
Sharks 12 Connacht 13
Prediction: It could be a tough battle, but Connacht, with JJ Harrington pulling the strings, should shade it.
Wins in South Africa have been as rare as hen’s teeth, but the Sharks, without their Springbok contingent of Koch, Mbonambi, Nche, Etzebeth, Williams, Am and Mapimpi have not been in a good place having lost to Munster, Leinster, Ospreys and even Zebre on their European tour and are currently bottom of the table. With Lukhanyo Am back in their side they posed a considerable attacking threat out wide, but Connacht defended heroically. JJ Harrington making his placekicks gave Connacht that vital edge to allow them to shade it despite the Sharks dominating territory and possession and missing several scoring opportunities. I called it daylight robbery in a post of the Irish Rugby Fan Forum, but you make your own luck, and the Sharks were largely the authors of their own misfortune.
Munster 10 Stormers 3
Prediction: Munster have brought back world cup stalwarts, O’Mahony and Beirne in addition to Murray, Casey, and Crowley, and have almost a full deck elsewhere, so should prevail after a tough battle.
And a tough battle it was. This was a rematch of last season’s URC final but was in Thomond Park rather than Cape Town and Munster took full advantage of the awful weather conditions and large crowd of supporters. Neither side lacked for motivational edge, with the Stormers looking for revenge and Munster to justify their crown.
The Stormers gave the Munster scrum a torrid time, particularly after Josh Wycherley replaced Loughman, but O’Mahony also managed to spook the Stormer’s line-out. Munster were immense in defence, with Hodnett, Coombes, Edogbo, Tadhg Beirne and Ahern having big games. For me, however, Crowley was the star of the show, always seeming to take the right option in awful conditions.
Leinster 54 Scarlets 5
Prediction: . Anything other than a bonus point win for Leinster would be a shock.
Leinster picked almost a full first team for this fixture, presumably with tougher tests against Munster and Connacht and Champions La Rochelle away in the European Champions Cup in mind. Sam Prendergast got his first start at the RDS right in the middle of the first team, an indication, perhaps, of just how highly Leinster management rate him. And he didn’t let them down, scoring a brilliant try within 4 minutes of the start, and pulling the strings adroitly from then on in.
It started out as a training ground romp for Leinster, scoring 3 tries and 19 points in just 16 minutes. But Scarlets had come to play and gave as good as they got, wining the next 35 minutes 5-0, until Ringrose put a stop to that nonsense by scoring the bonus point try. After that, it was all Leinster, running in four more tries. It must have been disheartening for the Scarlets, having given their all, to see Furlong, Sheehan, Ross Byrne et al roll off the bench to twist the knife into an already troubled heart.
Academy and Irish u.20 scrumhalf, Fintan Gunne, made a promising debut off the bench. There seems to be an unending supply of good young scrum halves coming through at Leinster.
Summary:
In truth, three of the four matches could have been lost, but good game management and an increasing maturity enabled the Irish provinces to prevail where previous teams might have lost. A few more academy players made their debuts, and others enhanced their reputations, particularly Scott Willson, Jack Boyle and Edwin Edogbo. There will be tougher weekends for the Irish provinces, but the foundations are being laid for another good season. Competition is building up within and between the provincial squads, and that can only be good for the overall health of Irish rugby.
Frank Schnittger is the author of Sovereignty 2040, a future history of how Irish re-unification might work out. He has worked in business in Dublin and London and, on a voluntary basis, for charities in community development, education, restorative justice and addiction services.
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