Opinion poll shows SF to make most gains after seat review

An opinion poll released by the Sunday Independent – Ireland Thinks today shows that Sinn Féin remains the largest party followed by Fine Gael and then Fianna Fáil. The Social Democrats are polling well but the Green Party are clearly struggling at just 2%.

This is the first poll released since the number of TDs was increased from 160 to 174.

Sinn Féin 33 (-1 in a month)

Fine Gael 21 (+2)

Fianna Fáil 18

Social Democrats 6 (+1)

Labour 3 (-1)

PBP-Solidarity 3

Greens 2 (-3)

Aontú 2

Inds/others 10

The projections for Dáil seats are :

Sinn Féin 67 +30
Fine Gael 40 +5
Fianna Fáil 35 -3
Independents/Other 15 -5
Social Democrats 9 +3
Labour 3 -3
Solidarity-PBP 3 -2
Aontú 1
Green Party 1 -11

 

With 87 seats required for a majority here are some possible coalitions that could be put together statistically (however unlikely!) Independents and others could well play a role in forming the next government sitting on 15 seats in this projection.

 

SF-FF 102 (Maj 15)

SF – FG 107 (Maj 20)

SF-SD-Lab-GP-PBP 83 (4 short)

FF-FG-GP 76 (11 short)

FF-FG (10 short)

 

When asked in a forced choice what coalition they would prefer a slight majority (42%) preferred a SF government (without both FF and FG) over the current FF-FG-GP coalition (40%).

In a second forced choice a slight majority (42%) preferred a SF-FF coalition to the current FF-FG-GP coalition (38%).


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