Despite the posturing brinkmanship, a deal with the EU is on the cards

I can’t think of a negotiation between governments anywhere, anytime in history where the suppliant used the threat to damage themselves as a negotiating ploy if they didn’t get their own way. Yet this has seemed to be Boris Johnson’s position as PM all along over Brexit.  First there was the about turn over the backstop to accept a harsher frontstop ( at least for Northern  Ireland);  giving the EU all they wanted in the withdrawal agreement and then pretending he hadn’t ;  the Northern Ireland protocol  would mean waving goods through in both directions with a silk hankie;  and finally that  clock could go on ticking for all he cared; he kept his own time.

There had to be some sense to all this perversity   hadn’t there?   The Europeans just didn’t get it. The UK was actually leaving, you see. And that meant they weren’t going to obey the EU rules – whatever the cost. And anyway the Covid lockdowns would produce such a recession that the marginal costs of No Deal would be inflated away. An inch or two closer to reality is the belief the EU wants a deal as badly as Britain (not everyone agrees) and that, as usual they do an 11th hour/ 59th minute/stop the clock deal in the end. Meanwhile the UK will extend the time not to negotiate but to implement.

Sensible people had their head in their hands when Johnson remotely met the Commission president Ursula von der Leyn  on Monday. But he came out promising more “oomph”,  and as  breezily optimistic as he was over the withdrawal agreement  in January  when he gave the EU all they wanted before going on to pretend he hadn’t. And blow me they seem to be getting somewhere after all.  Johnson affects to believe a deal can be done by next month. The mood in Brussels was said to be “upbeat.”

James Crisp in the pro-Brexit Daily Telegraph   

It is not in the UK or the EU’s interest to admit as much but a Brext trade deal is there to be done.  Both sides continue to insist it is up to the other to compromise on their red lines first, which plays well to their domestic audiences,  but the groundwork is being laid for a free trade agreement to be finalised by October..The issue of whether or not the UK will ask for an extension to the transition period was put to bed on Friday. Britain will leave transition at the end of this year, with or without a trade deal. 

Forget the rhetoric and propaganda. Neither Britain or the EU want to trade on WTO terms and with tariffs, which would be far less lucrative for both sides than the zero tariff, zero quota trade deal on the table.  Both the UK and the EU took up initial negotiating positions that are so maximalist, it leaves negotiators no option but to compromise.Mrs von der Leyen’s determination to avoid no deal is shared by her mentor Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor. Germany takes over the rotating presidency of the EU in July, which will hand Mrs Merkel an even more influential role in Brussels as the Brexit process enters its closing, crucial months. 

Mr Johnson, Mrs von der Leyen and the presidents of the European Council and Parliament, repeated their commitment to sealing the zero tariff, zero quota trade deal Her team, while appreciating the challenge ahead, is optimistic a deal can be done if both sides are prepared to compromise over the vexed issues of the level playing field, European Court of Justice and fishing rights. 

Mrs von der Leyen told Mr Johnson that there would need to be level playing field guarantees in the final trade deal otherwise it would never be agreed by the EU member states. She said that the level playing field guarantees on tax, state aid, labour rights and the environment would also protect Britain from unfair competition from EU business.

This last bit contains the main bones of contention. You might not have noticed the practical changes in the British position,- not exactly “world beating”- as explained by  Jill Rutter of  the Institute for Government..

 

Having assured Parliament in February that rather than the no deal plans, the UK would have a fully functioning border when we leave the single market and the customs union, he has had to revert to the no deal plan for the first months of 2021. The new plan means that rather than be fully operational immediately, the border will be introduced in stages: from January traders will have six months to file customs declarations; routine animal and plant health documents will not be required until April; and the full system only applies from 1 July.

That is realistic because of Covid-19, and a lot of businesses, which have not been able to prepare because of the pandemic, are very relieved… However, although the UK government only needs to be ready on one side of the border, UK businesses have a harder job – being ready for what will probably be a full border on the EU side.

But to sugar the pill,  Michael Gove went on to say that although the short-term approach to border management would be to turn a blind eye and wave trucks through, these actions “lay the foundations for the development of the best border in the world by 2025”. It’s not clear who is the South Korea of borders at the moment – but HMRC officials reckon that the French have done a pretty good job with the new smart border at Calais. “As good as France” may not have the same resonance – but sounds a much more reasonable aim.

On the Irish Protocol Gove had told MPs on 20 May there would be “some limited additional process on goods arriving in Northern Ireland.. .There will be no new physical customs infrastructure and we see no need to build any. We will, however, expand some existing entry points for agrifood goods to provide for proportionate additional controls.”

The command paper outlines a string of pledges from the Government on the border, with ministers promising “unfettered access” for Northern Irish businesses “to the whole of the UK market” by the end of the transition period.

They are also ruling out imposing any tariffs on goods “that move and remain with the UK customs territory”, promising to allow businesses in Northern Ireland to benefit from lower tariffs under trade deals Britain hopes to strike with United States, Australia, New Zealand and Japan.

And it says: “Implementation of the Protocol will not involve new customs infrastructure – with any processes on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland kept to an absolute minimum so that the integrity and smooth functioning of the UK internal market is protected.”

The plans have been given a cautious welcome by Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which voted against Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal last year amid concerns it would create a fresh divergence between NI and the rest of UK.

But DUP leader Arlene Foster, who is also the First Minister of Northern Ireland said the objectives set out by the UK “must be unmovable foundational positions for the UK Government”.

Graham Gudgin of pro Brexit think tank Policy Exchange has written an analysis of the two  negotiating  positions over the Irish Protocol.

RTE’s Tony Connolly wrote last week

 Either way, as the fourth negotiating round drew to a close last week it was clear both sides were far apart on the big issues, and even on smaller ones. Just like in the closing stage of the divorce negotiations, a “tunnel” is now beckoning, an intense period of negotiations with no media briefings and no briefings either of member states or the British cabinet.

As is so often the case in the tortured relationship between the EU and UK, both sides want fundamentally different things.

Member states believe that a mutual promise not to lower environmental, labour, social, taxation and climate change standards is one thing. Committing not to intervene in your economy is another. The UK, on the other hand, sees everything through a lens of sovereignty and insists that international standards on a host of issues, including state aid, that both sides sign up to will be sufficiently robust.

Connolly was writing before yesterday’s meeting between Johnson and von der Leyn. The atmosphere may now be a little more encouraging.

 

We are reader supported. Donate to keep Slugger lit!

For over 20 years, Slugger has been an independent place for debate and new ideas. We have published over 40,000 posts and over one and a half million comments on the site. Each month we have over 70,000 readers. All this we have accomplished with only volunteers we have never had any paid staff.

Slugger does not receive any funding, and we respect our readers, so we will never run intrusive ads or sponsored posts. Instead, we are reader-supported. Help us keep Slugger independent by becoming a friend of Slugger. While we run a tight ship and no one gets paid to write, we need money to help us cover our costs.

If you like what we do, we are asking you to consider giving a monthly donation of any amount, or you can give a one-off donation. Any amount is appreciated.