Next, we skip over (and through) to Mid Ulster. As Gerry Lynch said in 2007, it “clusters around the exact geographical centre of Northern Ireland”, even though to most of us easterners thing it feels very west, most days Magherafelt is just an easy hour’s drive up the M2 from the centre of Belfast.
The religious balance here stands at 67% Catholic to 31% Protestant, so there’s no question the seat goes any other way than nationalist. Sinn Féin’s Vice President Michelle O’Neill holds one of three (out of five) Assembly seats here and their veteran candidate Francie Molloy should sail home.
Like the last seat we’ll look at, East Londonderry, which lies just to its north, it is questionable just how much of a campaign is actually going on here. This week most activists for both Sinn Féin and the SDLP are across the Glenshane flooding Foyle with rival canvassers to win that prized seat.
As a result, I think we may get a good reading of where the natural sentiment lies within local nationalism. Although the seat may not change, on the night, we’ll be looking to dig out what (if any) trends there are to be seen between Molloy and the SDLP candidate Denise Johnson.
For the DUP’s Assemblyman Keith Buchanan is the most outstanding and well-known candidate. He took 26.9% of the vote in 2017, should come in an easy second to Molloy. For everyone bar Molloy this is largely a profile strengthening exercise.
Others include Neil Richardson (UUP), Mel Boyle (Alliance) and Conor Rafferty (Ind [Irish Freedom Party]).
Likely winner: Francie Molloy.
“Westminster Bridge, London” by Arran Bee is licensed under CC BY
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
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