Polling day is almost here, so I’m afraid, I’m going to have to wrap the last three remaining constituencies in slightly shorter order than previously. First of these is the one seat that the SDLP lost last time out, South Down. Notable mostly because few think it will change hands.
It’s a wide sprawling constituency that runs from the Windy Gap at the very top of Lagan valley down through Crossgar and Ballynahinch, through the old county town of Downpatrick through either side of the Mournes onto the northern shore of Carlingford Lough.
The sheer presence of the Mournes make it geographically rural but a lot of the population live in its relatively prosperous towns dotted from north to south. It is the only nationalist majority constituency that abuts directly onto the open reaches of the Irish Sea.
So what’s the main story? Well, ever since Eddie McGrady took the seat off Enoch Powell South Down it had been viewed as a safe safe seat for the SDLP. The old joke (at the party’s expense used to the that it was the South Down and Londonderry Party.
But in 2017 in the wake of the crocodile election, Chris Hazzard stormed through to take it by about 2,500 votes. Nicholas Whyte’s local government estimates show that in May’s local government elections that Sinn Féin’s proportion of the electorate was holding.
Hazzard is well-liked, hard working on the ground and unlike other Sinn Féin MPs actually comes from a non-Sinn Féin background. He’s a mad Down GAA man too, which goes a long way in a constituency where the bulk of the game is played and which has an impeccable all Ireland history.
Whatever happens to the rest of the party’s vote, that ought to give him plenty of resilience this time out. He was aided somewhat by the previous SDLP incumbent’s decision not long before the election was called to take a seat in the House of Lords.
On the other side is Michael Savage who has been more of an organiser of campaigns than a candidate. Word from those outside the local camp who’ve seen it in operation is that there’s a notable improvement in its logistics (which is vital in a place with such a wide geographical spread).
Taking back the seat is not tipped by anyone I’m speaking to. A decent result would be to halt the slide (with a mind to retaining the second Assembly for the party in the next election) in vote share. Better would be to close the gap.
But even to do that they need to push back on advances by both Alliance and Sinn Féin and also to try to convince those Unionists who once voted tactically for Margaret and Eddie to pick that practice again. That’s a very tall order given the party’s tactical support North Belfast’s for Finucane.
Watch out however for Aontú and the abortion issue. From north to south, this is still a very socially conservative constituency where regular Mass attendance is still relatively high amongst the older age groups and there’s been considerable church activism at unofficial Parish level.
Other candidates: Glyn Hanna (DUP), Jill MacAuley (UUP), Patrick Brown (Alliance), Paul Brady (Aontú).
“Westminster Bridge, London” by Arran Bee is licensed under CC BY
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
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