South Belfast is young and religiously mixed. Much of it is prosperous and in parts contains some of the most affluent parts of the city around the Malone and Stranmillis stretching to the upper Lisburn Road. Around the inner city, there is deprivation in the Markets and the Village.
But for the most part, this constituency is one of the most atypical of the wider patterns in Northern Ireland in the very precise sense that outside the few single identity areas the demographic mixing the local parties cannot access the usual easy clues about how to locate and target their voters.
In Britain, class-based politics makes targetting easier in places like South Belfast. But most of our parties (with the exception of Alliance and the Greens) are vertical integrations of multiple classes which only cohere on the basis of cultural identity. So all parties struggle with that.
In the 2011 Census, some 38.99% of the population here had a degree-level education. Unsurprising given the presence of Queens University. Also worthy of note is that over the last 10 years, the population has grown by 6.2% (slightly above the NI average), well ahead of its low-ish birthrate.
People move here because they like the conviviality, the greater security of living within a broad and stable mixed population and access to better-paid professional and higher-skilled jobs. South Belfast, for instance, usually takes the lion’s share of Invest NI’s FDI assistance.
If people like living in peaceful communities then foreign capital likes investing in them too. Foreign capital also, by and large, pays better wages. It’s a virtuous circle of which too many other Northern Irish constituencies continue to forego the benefit.
Politically, this was once what we used to call strong “Official Unionist” territory. That title was a throwback to a slightly earlier time when the only unionist party was the Unionist Party. It was broad, secular and almost 100% Protestant. Boundary changes and STV PR have fragmented that hold.
The population in 2011 was finely balanced with 44.01% belonging to or brought up in the Catholic religion and 43.65% in a ‘Protestant and Other Christian (including Christian related)’ religion. This mixed character of the place is what makes it so tricky to win and even trickier to hold on to.
Like few other places in the east of Northern Ireland, the decision making ground in South Belfast is rapidly becoming post-sectarian in its politics. In 2017 DUP incumbent Emma Little Pengelly exploited a three-way split between leading challenger for the SDLP and Sinn Féin and Alliance.
With each of them broadcasting the message they were the only viable anti-DUP it not only split their own power, but it also bombarded the pro-DUP vote with a whole heap of propaganda signalling the urgency of backing their own party. It allowed her to glide through the middle.
Sinn Féin and the Greens standing down has helped to define the SDLP’s Claire Hanna as the lead runner, but when strategists come together afterwards, they may agree that Brexit fallout blunted their chances of repeating their 2017 trick. At 69.5%, it was third most remain in NI.
In effect, Pengelly’s Brexit position represents the view of just 30.5% of the SB population. Exploiting your opponent’s weakness is one thing, but continuing to depend upon it is something rather different. Railing at the UUP for standing (as they did last time) is for the optics.
Other candidates include Paula Bradshaw of Alliance, Michael Henderson UUP and Chris McHugh of Aontú.
Likely winner: Claire Hanna. Some speculate that Hanna will come to regret the present Brexit centric arrangement with Sinn Féin and that they will come back in the future. Hanna needs the working-class votes in single identity areas that SF sits on, but she needs the middle classes too.
No one else both passes the mixed dinner party test for being socially acceptable to admit you voted for and stands to take a haul from the Markets?
“Westminster Bridge, London” by Arran Bee is licensed under CC BY
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
Discover more from Slugger O'Toole
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
