Strangford draws its name from the sea lough that bisects it between the Ards Peninsula and ‘mainland’ County Down. It is predominantly Protestant with a few enclaves of Catholic areas most notably the southern end of the Ards peninsula where most of the county’s Hurling players come from.
It’s a relatively prosperous constituency where the farming land is relatively rich (Comber early potatoes have had protected geographical indication (PGI) since 2012), and most of the towns are, as Gerry Lynch noted in 2007, “in transition from being country market towns to Belfast dormitories”.
The present incumbent won’t be troubled by any opposition. However, his 62% in 2017 hasn’t deterred Jim Shannon from voting in a staggering 91.58% of motions in Westminster and speaking in 584 debates. Most likely to be heard asking, “will the hon. Gentleman give way?”
It’s commonly said around Westminster that if Jim doesn’t turn out for your adjournment debate (usually held for about half an hour at the end of Commons business every evening), you should really worry that you have done something badly wrong.
The size of his majority completes a conversion exercise in Strandford from traditional UUP stronghold into a DUP one-stop-shop. The party moved Peter Weir here from North Down for a safe third seat in the March 2017 Assembly election in which unionism was put under maximum squeeze.
“Safety” from nationalist incursion (the combined total between the SDLP and Sinn Féin barely makes 12% on a good day), ought to free it up for a good old intra-unionist fight. However after nationalism’s high tide in the Crocodile election of Spring 2019 Shannon got a whopping 62.0%, +17.6%.
Some interest after the Brexit deal in which way the massive DUP vote here goes. Phillip Smith, the former UUP MLA, is running this time, presumably to try eek back enough to eye a second seat. He’ll do well just to sneak past Alliance Party’s new Ards stalwart, Kelly Armstrong.
Joe Boyle of the SDLP is a Ards councillor who seems destined to be in the perennial hunt for the last Assembly seat. There are more votes, but mostly “across the water”. Ryan Carlin (SF), Maurice Macartney (Green) Grant Abraham (Conservative) and Robert Stephenson (UKIP).
Likely winner: Well, it’s unlikely to be anyone else other than Jim Shannon. Everyone else is just out for the crack and the canvass.
“Westminster Bridge, London” by Arran Bee is licensed under CC BY
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
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