This constituency comprises Strabane end of Derry and Strabane District Council and the Omagh end of Fermanagh and Omagh District Council, which draw their names from the only two major towns in the area. In the third most Catholic constituency, nationalism is the commanding force.
Like most seats in this election, West Tyrone is not under threat. Órfhlaith Begley, the retiring MP, is daughter of former Sinn Féin Omagh District Council chairman Seán Begley and is from the Republican stronghold of Carrickmore. She follows her party’s policy of abstaining from Westminster.
Despite having no previous public political experience, she easily won the by-election held after the previous Sinn Féin incumbent Barry McElduff resigned in a media furore over his ‘joke’ of putting a Kingsmill loaf on his head on the anniversary of the massacre of the same name.
In fact, the party was only pressured after the only survivor of the massacre Alan Black gave his own raw testimony to RTÉ of his experience of that evening. McElduff stepped down after the party’s leadership came under sustained political and media pressure in the south.
The by-election, aside from a slight swing from Sinn Féin to the SDLP, Begley easily took the seat with 46.7% of the vote. Sinn Féin has been the dominant factor (it holds three out of five Assembly sears). The last unionist MP broke through a nationalist vote that was split evenly back in 1997.
Two other candidates from the DUP and SDLP Thomas Buchanan and Daniel McCrossan are already Assembly members, in the race to maintain vote share. A third is a co-opted councillor Andy McKane for the former UUP MLA Ross Hussey who withdrew for the 2017 election.
There is mild interest is how percentages hold up against Assembly seats. Within Unionism, the UUP’s Alicia Clarke only just missed out on the fifth seat to Sinn Féin’s Declan McAleer by just 760.45 votes. Clarke was subsequently squeezed by the DUP surge in 2017. McKane faces a steep climb.
The nationalist game is also rather academic, however party headquarters will be looking at any favourable shifts in percentages to build on on the 4.9% increase he got in last year’s byelection as confirmation that the party is going in the right direction in deeper nationalist heartlands.
The rest comprise: Stephen Donnelly (Alliance), Susan Glass (Green), James Hope (Aontú).
Likely winner: Well, I’m not going against Paddy Power, who generously offer 1/200 on Órfhlaith Begley. Home at an easy canter.
“Westminster Bridge, London” by Arran Bee is licensed under CC BY
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
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