So with polling 12th December in mind, I thought I would start with what most commentators are viewing as the signal contest of this election in Northern Ireland in what once was the cockpit of sectarian murder and violence, North Belfast.
Lost Lives, records this area as having the second-highest number of Troubles deaths with 566 after West Belfast’s 691. The greater number of these were concentrated in small, fragmented loyalist and Republican communities like New Lodge and Tigers Bay.
The shifting sands of the post trouble era have ushered in a lot of micro struggles with little cross-community agreement over the siting of new housing. It has seen sporadic violence over parades and the notoriously ugly standoff at Holy Cross Girls school back in 2001.
Peace walls dissect most of the constituency splitting areas like Oldpark and Ardoyne into separate single identity Catholics and Protestants. In others along the Antrim Road and Fortwilliam, some middle-class communities are mixed but predominantly Catholic.
With the SDLP and the Greens stepping back in order to leave the field to Sinn Féin as part of a quasi remain alliance, the field is a short one this time, with just three candidates standing:
- Nigel Dodds (DUP)
- Nuala McAllister (Alliance)
- John Finucane (SF)
Taking Nigel Dodds first, not only is he the incumbent here, but he’s also the DUP’s leader in the House of Commons. After two years leading on Brexit now has a huge national profile that was previously denied to many of his unionist predecessors.
He first won the seat back in 2001 with a comfortable 40.8% of the vote when the previous incumbent Cecil Walker of the UUP finally retired from politics. Shifting demographics have meant that the nationalist/unionist gap has narrowed, but it has done so unevenly.
His last high point was in 2015 when he pulled in 47% of all votes cast. This was in large part due to the consolidation of the unionist vote after former UUP MLA for North Belfast Fred Cobain defected to the DUP after 30 years of loyal service in 2013.
After consolidating for nearly 20 years Dodds is in a tough (but not unwinnable) battle for his own political future. There are areas of unionist turnout which could be improved, particularly outside the Belfast City Council area and into Newtownabbey.
Despite holding his overall share, Sinn Féin rode a wave of popular anger arising out of the collapse Stormont and the ‘Crocodile’ Assembly election just months before, and new candidate John Finucane closed the gap from six to just over two thousand votes.
In rugby, you might call Finucane an impact player. He’s young and being the son of solicitor Pat who was murdered by loyalists at home in Fortwilliam in front of the family has a tragic backstory that resonates strongly with a transitioning middle-class catholic vote.
Having extended family in the Republican movement, also means that the party’s hardcore and busiest activists (like the convicted Shankill bomber Seán Kelly) won’t hold back in their efforts to try to push the young lawyer’s vote total past Dodds either.
In his first electoral performance in 2017 he actively pulled out a middle-class Catholic vote that had eluded his predecessor Gerry Kelly whilst retaining the party’s working-class base. He needs to build on that combination to cross the gap while the DUP tries to widen it.
The banner attacking Finucane over the Provisional’s historic campaign and his wider family’s role therein may have a double effect: one, by hitting up its intended audience (working-class loyalists), but it also sparking genuine outrage in the Catholic middle class.
From a purely electoral point of view, it is a question of with whom it sparks the greater number of outraged voters.
The one doubt in the back of Finucane’s mind will be a disappointing performance in the council elections in May where he came about 100 votes* short of the Alliance councillor Nuala McAllister in Castle ward right at the epicentre of that Catholic middle-class support.
Since everyone else but McAllister has now fled the field, she may be one of the key factors that ultimately decide the winner of the seat. You’d have to think she’s less vulnerable to a Finucane Dodds squeeze than the SDLP or even Green voters.
In 2017 Alliance came ahead of the SDLP with 2,475 votes. I’m not sure that her recent party’s successes in the Europeans and local will translate too much. North Belfast operates its own rules, but she’s likely to draw some SDLP voters from going directly to Sinn Féin.
The odd thing about this constituency is that although Brexit is the reason for stepping down, it’s as near as dammit Brexit neutral with a 50.4% majority for Remain against a 48.6% minority vote for Brexit. One reason why it won’t feature hugely on the doorsteps.
Likely Winner: Tight, but I tip slightly toward the incumbent Dodds. Two reasons: unionist consolidation is more established and likely to be smoother than in nationalism; if Dodds adds another 1000 votes the gap may be just too wide to bridge.
And yet a Finucane win would surprise no one (though it would shock political unionism to its core). Even if he reduces the gap to a couple of hundred or less then he will still be in with a good shout next time around. Lose by more than 1000 and it could be game over.
*See Ash’s pinned comment for an important qualifier to this point...
Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty
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