Tory-DUP deal reached

Very briefly… source for all information is the Guardian as that was the first place I could find with the detailed documents!

The agreement

The short version is that the DUP will vote with the Government on the Queen’s Speech, the budget, all finance and money bills, supply and appropriation legislation and Estimates.

In return, the Government agreed:

  • No change to pensions triple lock and Winter Fuel Payment
  • 2% of GDP on armed forces as per NATO commitment
  • Implementation of Armed Forces Covenant throughout the UK
  • Consider options to support Reserve Forces in NI
  • Recognise importance of NI Agriculture sector and opportunities for growth that exist [very meaningful – Ed] indeed, but they’ve committed to meet the same cash total in farm support for the rest of this Parliament

The document ends with affirming support for the Union and the Belfast Agreement and its successors and close cooperation with the Irish Government. The DUP commits itself to agreeing the formation of an Executive [on their own terms? – Ed] Oh shhhh… they will not be involved in the UK Government’s role in the talks, but rather only as a party entitled to form part of an Executive.

The money

Infrastructure

  • £200m per year for two years for York Street Interchange and other priorities (total £400m)
  • £75m per year for two years for ultra-fast broadband (total £550m)
  • Commitment on the future UK Shared Prosperity Fund
  • Greater cooperation on economic growth
  • Promoting Foreign Direct Investment
  • Work towards devolution of Corporation Tax rates [how to give the money back? – Ed]
  • City deals and Enterprise zones for NI
  • Report on impact of VAT and APD on tourism
  • £20m per year for five years to target severe deprivation (total £650m)

Health and education

  • £50m per year for two years for immediate pressures (total £750m)
  • £100m per year for two years for Bengoa (total £900m)
  • £10m per year for five years for mental health [what about autism? – Ed] (total £1bn)

Previous allocations

Any money left over from previous allocations [surely not – Ed] – apparently up to £500m – can be dispersed flexibly within this Spending Review Period.

Legacy

The UK Government to work with all parties towards the implementation of Stormont House for better outcomes for victims and survivors, and not to have an unfair focus on former members of the Armed Forces or the police.

 

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  • jporter

    I think we’ll hear more and more Tory MPs over the next few days openly wondering why a £1bn deal has been done with a party that were never going to vote against the Tories anyway.
    Theresa is being left to own this one (along with the fallout from Brexit) and it will be buried with her, at a suitable distance from ‘The Party’ when the time is right for the knives to come out.

  • David Crookes

    Brilliant line, Chris, which I’ll steal for future use.

    But to be serious, what can Mr Corbyn do in the short term?

  • Zeno3

    What specifically is this “threat” to the Peace Process?

  • The Irishman

    Debating like a cream egg again chrisjones2…

  • Zeno3

    “Most Conservatives I’ve spoken to over the last four years have been talking about a United Ireland as a natural solution.”

    What will they do? Impose it over the will of the people?

  • DaptoDogs

    Ruth Davidson and the Scottish Tories could scupper it immediately, and likely will have much to say about it

  • Zeno3

    We don’t leave the EU for 2 years and this deal is over 2 years. Have the EU stopped sending any funding to us even though we are still in the EU?

  • Bobby

    The ‘polls’? Oh, you mean the Life and Times survey – the same survey which has consistently under-reported SF support every year it has been conducted. Chris, you need to understand that people giving nice, safe answers to a survey interviewer who calls at their door isn’t the same thing as political reality. The real polls are the one nationalists are flocking to and voting for SF’s united Ireland manifesto in droves.

  • Bobby

    lol the history of the Life and Times survey is one of consistently under-reporting SF’s electoral strength. The survey is conducted on a face-to-face basis in people’s homes by survey interviewers who come from both sides of the community. The respondents realise this and moderate their answers as a result. It’s a legacy of the Troubles. It’s a meaningless exercise. The privacy of the polling booth is where people’s real views come out. By your logic not all DUP voters are pro-Union.

  • Bobby

    How does it put SF on the ‘back foot’? If anything it makes life easier for them. The money will come in regardless of whether they return to Stormont – thus easing the pressure from their own base regarding funding for the health service. The Shinners can still sit back and refuse to allow Arlene her FM post and it will have no consequences for the electorate. It’ll irritate Arlene though. Lording it over themmuns here is her raison d’etre – Westminster is really a foreign country for her.

  • Bobby

    So why are the vast majority of Catholics voting for the most nationalist party – indeed, to the extent that nationalism has no Westminster representation? Yes, they’re definitely not nationalists these nationalists!

  • mac tire

    Indeed. It appears the Scottish Secretary was telling a few porkies or else he is already storming down to London to demand Scotland’s potential £3.5 billion. Wales may well ask for their £1.5 billion as well.

    Will this deal cost around £6 billion?

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/mundellbarnett-768×281.jpg

  • Karl

    No idea. I have never mentioned any threat to the peace process. In my view the peace process died with St Andrews which was the carve up process. I understand reconciliation lasting 20 years, a peace process, no.

  • Zeno3

    I know you didn’t but Gerry did.

  • Zeno3

    The DUP were supporting Brexit anyway. This way we get a £1.5 billion pork barrel + other goodies. It’s standard politics. When someone gets the Pork the rest rage and fume.

    http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pork_barrel_politics.asp

  • runnymede

    Your assumption is false. And I suspect I am more connected with Tory opinion than you.

  • DaptoDogs

    It likely should. Just when it looked like the UK’s constitutional tensions were abating eh? The ‘West Lothian Question’ will likely get a southern retooling subsequently too. This whole affair recalls two points Adrian Pabst’s (University of Kent) article ‘After the Scottish No” article:
    1) “Globally, especially in relation to Britain’s commonwealth partners, an isolated English nation-state would be a wholly artificial reality, denying the reality of its own Celtic fringes (Cornwall, Cumbria, the Welsh Marches, and the Scottish Borders), just as an independent Scottish nation would tend to deny its heavy Anglo-Saxon, Norse, Brithonic, and religiously Catholic components. The implications for the Commonwealth and other immigrants to the British Isles would also be negative: in fact the British, “imperial” identity is for them the most civic and non-racial one. With Scotland remaining in the Union, Britain has a unique and perhaps final chance of crafting a more imaginative foreign policy and playing a transformative part in international affairs, especially across the wider Europe. The historical and cultural connections that the combined European and Commonwealth linkages offer are perhaps Britain’s single greatest asset. Like the Union at home, the EU and the Commonwealth are potentially (and to some considerable extent already in reality) genuine alternatives to (federal or unitary) superstates, on the one hand, and globalized free-trade zones, on the other hand. They are more like multinational associations of peoples who are bound together by social and cultural ties and who share risks, rewards, and resources…” p 23

    However, Brexit has now narrowed possibilities there.

    2) “…Britain needs to encourage France to adopt once again a more global outlook and Germany to export its own in many ways exemplary economic model (though it needs radicalization and a removal from an all too statist mode of corporatism) in adaptively different ways to other European countries. This might involve some blending with the rather more mutualist structures of welfare provision in the Latin polities. Any such moves would require a greater internal balancing, whereby Germany learned to consume more and other European countries to produce and export more.
    But this renewed world-mission will only be possible if the UK recovers its nerve at home and re-comprehends and re-envisions its own European and British political and economic legacy in terms of the primacy of the social. The latter, like the notion of economic growth and political representation, was greatly augmented by the Christian irruption that placed “free association” for purposes of social harmony and reconciliation beyond the reach of legal coercion and enforcement, while also engendering the Church as the first trans-political international society. It is
    for this reason far from being accidental that churches and other religious bodies are today at the forefront—both at home and abroad—of renewing civil society, often in tandem with constitutional monarchies. In its secular mode by contrast, civil society has scarcely proved capable of resisting the materialist depredations of an uprooted economy and politics that we owe largely to liberal imperialism since the late nineteenth century, including
    Wilsonian democratic idealism that has informed recent liberal “humanitarian interventions” and neo-con crusades.
    Once again Britain’s legacy of mixed government is the key to unlock the potential for a more creative vision of the country’s role in Europe and the world. In the current situation of a globalized economic empire under the hegemony of the United States, it is important to realize that the UK is actually not a nation-state, nor even a modern state at all. In fact, the term belongs to the formalism of early modern Continental jurisprudence,
    founded on the triply formalist basis (recognizing only subjective rights and increasingly a merely positivist basis for law) of “politics, police and politesse”—as Carl Schmitt was right to argue. Rather, Britain is an island empire defined not by geographical bounds but by a claimed service of the common good and personal rule (through
    constitutional monarchy and Church establishment), which is a positive resource.” p 26-7

    And, the DUP deal (which can only be viewed as successful through the oculus of nation-statehood that claims Irish Unionism as a “British” nationality when it is clearly not) appears to have scuppered the ‘island empire’ potential of that vision too. The road forward from here now appears very narrow, and to require that ‘all the eggs in one basket’. It reminds me of the infamous exchange between Lord Birkenhead and MIchael Collins, except none of the contemporary signatories have the acumen to understand the fatality of their actions.

    Who will play the ‘De Valera’ and ‘Stanley Baldwin’ roles is yet unclear (likely Ms Davidson and young Ian P) but, on Machiavelli’s political sociology, I’m more than willing to bet that both are already sharpening their knives and ready to strike at their respective leaders at the earliest opportunity.

  • chrisjones2

    MAny? Well a few thousand but how many Prods do you think really sit around bonfires doing that ?

  • chrisjones2

    Well they keep telling pollsters that they won’t vote for a UI. In the case of the SDLP only 30% seem to be UI supporters

  • chrisjones2

    That would be the 28% SF polled on a turn out of say 65%

    That means that 18% of eligible voters voted SF.

    “Flocking”? Do have some perspective

    PS assume that every SF voter would support a UI (which is probably a little OTT) then add in 30% of the SDLP vote and you get a pro UI vote of 22% …not far removed from the Life and Times figure of 19% pro UI

  • chrisjones2

    Presumably that’s why the DUP kept him in the loop on what was planned

  • Croiteir

    What I am happiest most about is the final realisation that the 1/2 billion reserved for the integrated education fund can now finally be spent on issues were it is needed

  • chrisjones2

    An effective majority of 13 is workable. Poor Mr Eastwood gave the Tories an extra margin of 3. Bless

  • chrisjones2

    Think of the Peace Process as a Wilderbeest. First the Lions got it. Then the vultures. Now we have the hyenas arguing over the bones

  • chrisjones2

    The DUP will rescue them. They need them to get the voters out. It’s easier and cheaper than canvassing

  • SeaanUiNeill

    Runny, I know quite a few people active in Conservatism. Unless you mix with such people as I frequently do, myself, I’d imagine that your own assessment is rather more connected with Unionist wish fulfilment than with real Conservatives who are MPs, aides and party activists over the water. If you have friends or sources within the Conservative party, all I can say is that your postings show that none of them are telling you anything.

    But just use some common sense, as my own contacts are only being presented “in good faith”, and for obvious reasons I’m not mentioning any names. The DUP, conniving with SF (who have apparently been briefed by the DUP team), have just bullied a weak and vulnerable Conservative administration into offering them “special funds” half of which will go to pay off a massive RHI mistake Arlene set i motion. Her failure to assess departmental initiatives has committed us to £470,000 in payments to those signed up to the scheme. As Patricia McBride says on another thread “There is no plan in place to address the financial commitments given under the scheme and, to date, no legal way identified for the Executive to withdraw from it. There is also no Westminster guarantee scheme to prop it up.”

    Well now Arlene has the funds to pay for this, and is hoping that her incompetence and miscalculation will be forgotten and forgiven until the next mistake. But it is the talk of the corridors of Westminster, that the DUP have demanded a “protection money” bung (one person I spoke with mentioned “paramilitary habits” in this context) which will not go to the people as a whole but only to a small group of grafters. Even the bung which is being trumpeted as a local windfall is being deflected to what is primarily a party political DUP matter, the saving of Arlene’s personal bacon.

    You claim to be “more connected with Tory opinion than” myself, but as I’ve said above your comments seem only to reflect a mix of wishful thinking and a few Bel Tel sourced “upbeat” assumptions. If you can offer me one simple reason for the Conservatives to feel affinity with, or admire the DUP, please tell. I, and those I know as friends who are involved in Westminster, simply cannot think of one single thing.

  • SeaanUiNeill

    They have been hoping, since the Belfast Agreement, that Unionism would take the hint and prepare for the inevitability of a re-unified Ireland. As they hear the silly optimism of “the Union will last my lifetime”, they sit back and wait for the demographic shift to do the trick of freeing them from the embarrassment. Rather than your lurid “Impose it over the will of the people”, they are imagining it will have become the expression of the will of the people in a very short while.

    Most Conservatives are committed devolutionists, and the other side of this is an unspoken concentration on pure English self interest, especially home counties self interest. A little thought will show how this fits closely with their Neo-Liberal economics. In this rapidly changing world, the massive expense of keeping a lame old dog like NI up in the northern corner, and “in another room” geographically, simply out of some sentimental attachment, simply does not fit with “market forces.” That the vet’s bill has incurred another billion this week does nothing to counter such clear sighted pragmatism. While no-one is taking about putting NI down, its natural death through demographics will not find anyone within Conservatism in floods of tears.

  • SeaanUiNeill

    £470,000,000 is earmarked for the RHI payments. That is the very first thing which needs to be addressed.

  • Skibo

    I believe the issue is that the EU would continue to finance anything that was agreed but put a hold on agreeing future funds. That was the big outcry about the York St link. The access to EU funds was denied due to Brexit.
    In the end, this agreement is worth nothing if there is an election in the morning and if that happens and either the Tories or Labour get in without the help of the DUP, the knives will be out for the North.
    There is no such thing as a free lunch.

  • Casper

    Asking for special status for the north could have brought in far more than £1billion over two years, with no grubby hidden deals behind the scenes. Already politicians around the UK are asking what the ‘shadow deal’ consists of, no-one takes the DUP or Tories on their word over this.

  • Skibo

    This is so much like someone taking your car and giving you a bike and expecting you to be happy.

  • Casper

    The good news for United Irelanders is that the DUP have seriously annoyed many senior Tories by damaging their chances to win the next election. And I can’t see Labour bending over backwards to help them in the future. If they had agreed to push for special status they could have brought home the bacon without annoying anyone or destroying their friendships in Westminster.

  • Skibo

    That is not a proper analysis. As roads are upgraded, they will attract more traffic and so require further investment. The roads west of the Ban have been neglected and the problems only become evident where the network forms a logjam which happens at Toome and Dungiven. As the network in the West is improved, the use of such roads will increase exponentially.

  • Skibo

    The DUP have shown that the Union is not as united as they would have you think. The DUP stuck in about the triple lock and the winter fuel and thinking they could appease the rest of the Union that they were negotiating for everyone and failed to mention that May would not get it past her own party, never mind any other party. What a joke.

  • Casper

    Judging by the total costs spent during the election and now a £1billion bung, PM May is anything but strong and stable. But it might not be easy for the Tories to get rid of her at this point no matter how much damage she is doing to the party or the country.

  • Casper

    19% is the amount of people who believe any figures or statistics you post.

  • Casper

    They have shown the don’t care one iota about the entire union within the UK, only about the union with N.I.
    That will come back to haunt them.

  • Zeno3

    Bad DUP, we should send that £1.5 billion back immediately.

  • Zeno3

    Demographics?
    I hate to break it to you but as the Catholic Population has grown.
    support for a United Ireland has fallen. Currently standing at around 19%.
    Does the demographics nargument not mean that the exact opposite should be happening?

  • Skibo

    Don’t worry about the SNP, the DUP are doing all in their power to make sure those seats return to the SNP. If Ruth does not get a comparative deal, their days are numbered.

  • Skibo

    What discredits them bar the fact that they are Nationalist parties? Are the SNP not the largest party in Scotland by a country mile?

  • Skibo

    I hate to break this to you but Nationalist and Unionist representation in Stormont is the same and for the first time in a GE, Unionist voting has fallen below 50%. This has been forecast to happen and it now has.
    The next council election in Belfast will tell a tale. It is a barometer for politics in the North.

  • Skibo

    Not bad DUP for having £1.5B spent in the North, IF it happens. Bad DUP for dressing old money up as new and demanding money to make up a shortfall in the EU money that would have come here.
    I listened to IDS on the telly explaining that this money was to make up for a shortfall in spending in the North and not extra funds. Who is right, not that I would believe either party?

  • Skibo

    I assume the 19% you refer to is those who want reunification in the morning. When you include those who want reunification in the event of the UK leaving the EU, that figure rises to 44.4%.
    The gap is closing.

  • Zeno3

    You should refuse your share of it.

  • Zeno3

    Well done but Nationalists could hold 60% of the seats and it still wouldn’t mean a UI is inevitable as Seaan was claiming.

  • Skibo

    Please explain, what share do I get? I have no pellet boiler and the DUP do not inform me when such schemes are in place.
    I am not involved in road construction or education.
    I wonder how much of the money the DUP education Minister did not spend is being repackaged and given another chance to spend?

  • Skibo

    Zeno3 with the growth of the Nationalist vote, so too will the island wide co-operation and the greening of the North.
    The North came into being as an Orange state where Protestants could feel safe. Will you still feel safe in a Green North? Will you not be concerned at Nationalists flexing their democratic right and diluting the Britishness of the North?
    First the flag in Belfast on designated days, what would you say to two flags on designated days or two flags on top of Stormont?
    Perhaps a united Ireland may not be such a scary place compared to that!

  • Casper

    Interesting stuff Seaan.

  • Zeno3

    So when is this massive greening and votes for political parties going to change 19% into the required 51%. Is it a few short years as Gerry Adams says or sooner?
    I don’t care about flags, paint the City Hall and Stormont green white and gold and cover them with leprechauns if it makes you happy.

  • Casper

    Perhaps a period of direct rule would focus minds a bit more. At the very least it would mean those in Westminster can’t just ignore N.I as they usually do for most of the year.
    Giving the Tories one more ball to juggle while they are being scrutinized by the EU and the worlds media could be interesting.

  • Casper

    I think SF and the SDLP played this one badly. Instead of opposing an AFC they should have grabbed the ball and run for the try-line while insisting it was accompanied by an ILA.

  • Skibo

    As I have stated previously, the 19% that is questionable on its own, is quoted for a UI tomorrow morning. It will be a phased project with the influence and finances of the UK reducing as the UI comes into being, probably based over five years.
    When the question is rephrased to take into account if the UK leaves the EU, the percentage rises to 44.4%. That is before the pain of Brexit hits. How will Unionist farmers react? How will employees of businesses who move to the South react?
    Within the next five years there is going to be major change in not only the political field but the economic field also.
    The DUP pushed the government hard on getting a commitment to continue farm payments and they have confirmed that they will for the duration of the parliament but when you read what they have written it states
    “The parties agree to continue to commit the same cash total in funds for farm support until the end of the Parliament. Further discussions will take place on the future framework for farming support.”
    That is starting to sound like a fudge.

  • Skibo

    It would be wrong to link it to an ILA. It should be linked to a bill of rights as noted in the GFA. That way it could be linked to fatal foetal abnormality and equal marriage. ILA can be linked to Ulster Scots with the acknowledgement that one is a language and one is a dialect.

  • Zeno3

    “When the question is rephrased to take into account if the UK leaves the EU, the percentage rises to 44.4%”

    That is a completely false figure. Last time you quoted it I suggested we should ask for an expert opinion to explain it and never heard back from you. I suspect you don’t really want to know the truth.

  • Skibo

    Zeno3, I explained that to you and just assumed you had grasped the mathematics. There are four options, two are for the union and two for reunification. If you are right about your analysis then only 25.3% of people support the union in the event of the UK leaving the EU. Only 30.3% support the union if the UK stays in the EU. 24.2 % support reunification in the event of the UK leaving the EU and 20.2% prefer reunification no mater what the UK does. So stop the bull. That gives 55.6% supporting the Union and 44.4 % supporting reunification.
    What do you not understand?
    The 20.2% is actually very close to the 19% you keep quoting.

  • grumpy oul man

    ” Most Tories are very happy with this.”
    I would love to know what this claim is based on, I have heard many senior Tories saying any deal with the DUP is a good idea and outside Mays circle i have heard very few if any backbenchers come out in support of the deal.
    It puts the Scots and welsh Tories in a bit of a bind, people who actually voted Tory may well be asking where is our bung!
    and the English MPs might be a bit annoyed that there is no bung going to them.
    so what is this ” Most Tories are very happy with this.” based on.
    they may tolerate it but Happy is a pretty strong word.

  • Zeno3

    It really looks like you want to stay with your fantasy figure of 44.4% which in not mentioned anywhere in the poll. Has never been mentioned by any Nationalist Party and has never been picked up by the mainstream media.
    What are you afraid of?
    You could our resident expert Salmonofdata or even ask the polling company. But then you might have to accept reality.

  • SeaanUiNeill

    Zeno3, these polls certainly come up with 19% on small samples of a few hundred at most, occasionally asked rather leading questions, but one of the largest samples taken would be the “direct” poll on the Belfast Telegraph last summer were over 50,000 people voted:

    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/over-50000-take-part-in-our-united-ireland-border-poll-heres-how-they-voted-34900542.html

    I note its 70% for a reunified Ireland gets less publicity. But my own experience of how the “real people” I know in advertising who are serious end users for sampling and polls actually think of them. Very, very critically.

    At they very least, the Bel Tel’s 70% is food for thought to anyone who is not irrationally committed to a belief that the Thousand Year Statelet is somehow inevitable. I should perhaps mention that most people I speak to over the water, including some very informed people, seem to think that Irish re-unification is both inevitable and imminent.

  • Zeno3

    Seaan, you could vote as many times as you liked in the Belfast Telegraph Poll by just using a little ingenuity. 70% gets less publicity because it is pure unadulterated nonsense. You know that.

  • SeaanUiNeill

    Thank you for making my point about the basic unreliability of such any such “sampling.” No butcher will eat a sausage (they know what the ingredients are) and no-one who has worked with polls in any advertising or marketing context can keep a straight face when such evidence is offered to them as some form of proof. I know people who have the skill to get a massive SF vote on the Shankill with only a few weeks work. The results depend on how a poll directs its target groups so the only poll that will count here will be the Border Poll itself. The recent voter swings over the water which defied May’s faith in a clear Tory majority should show you how little faith to put in any pollster’s predictions. Polls are simply a convenient device with which to direct public opinion.

  • Skibo

    What am I afraid of? I would turn that to you, what are you afraid of? If you only accept the 20.4% in the pool of Irish reunification then similarly you must accept 30.3% as the support level for the Union while the UK stays within the EU. Does that mean there is only 24.4% for the Union if the UK leaves the EU?
    Can you now see the problem with your analysis?

  • Skibo

    You could only vote once for each electrical device you used, i.e. if you used a laptop and a phone you could vote twice.
    Seems Unionists couldn’t be bothered to vote.

  • the Moor

    ‘the union is rotten’ … and doomed

  • Zeno3

    Have you tried clearing your cookies?

  • Skibo

    No why, how many times did you vote?
    I saw people saying you could vote as often as you wanted so i tried it out and was only able to vote twice! LOL

  • Zeno3

    I voted 3 times in the latest poll today and didn’t even need to clear cookies or use another device.
    1 Normal vote.
    2 Open incognito window, vote again.
    3 Open another web browser Vote again. (Internet Explorer)
    It’s really easy and makes the poll a joke.
    However if you would like to put the case that support for UI stands at 70% I would love to hear it.

  • Zeno3

    I didn’t make your point Seaan. I dismissed your claim that the Belfast Telegraph poll had any validity by pointing out that you could vote as many times as you like.
    The latest credible poll I believe comes in at 19%. That is funded by OFMDFM and carried out by academics in the local universities.
    There are off course dodgy polls but they aren’t all dodgy and there has never been a properly conducted poll that shows support for UI is anywhere near what is required for UI.
    http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2016/Political_Attitudes/NIRELND2.html

  • Zeno3

    It’s not my analysis it’s what the poll says. You claimed 44.4% so the onus is on you to prove it.

  • Zeno3

    Zeno3 with the growth of the Nationalist vote,

    By the way. You realise that the Nationalist vote gained by (SF/SDLP) 320203 is actually lower now than it was in 1998 when it was 322551 ?

  • Fick Mealty

    Ah Zeno, it is good to see you back! And 80 odd posts the last 24 hours, you must have missed Slugger, glad you came back after promising never to return 🙂

    Still, less happy to see that you are still telling lies about numbers, can you not stop it?

    As per wiki and ark, SF and the SDLP scored some 320,821 votes in 1998, and not the 322551 you have mistakenly claimed.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Assembly_election,_1998

    You should check out some decent analysis from someone who has made quite a bit of money predicting things over the last few years. Like most people on Slugger, I think he would find your selective number crunching hilarious.

    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/demographics-are-shifting-towards-a-united-ireland-we-must-have-a-plan-35865222.html

  • Skibo

    Zeno3 I don’t know what kind of a calculator you are using but I think the batteries need to be changed.
    SF 238915
    SDLP 95419
    PBP etc around 3000
    Total 337334

  • SeaanUiNeill

    I’ll have aloof at “technical notes” and get back to you. My concerns would be for the methodology, the size of the sample and how it was selected. No matter how such things are handled they are always open to serious question because of the quantum element, where answers will always reflect the expectations of those setting the questions. There is also the major problem of attempting to reduce something which is not inherently mathematical to mathematical terms. While there is a simplistic belief that the methodologies of certain disciplines can offer answers, and serious scientist will tell you that science is a way of examining things not of defining things.

    With this, even something simple like the exit from Europe needs to be examined for proper detailed motivation which may be rapidly contradicted by the motivations of someone else voting the very same way on the general issue.

  • SeaanUiNeill

    Zeno3, amongst those who voted in the poll, support for a re-unified Ireland clearly does stand at 70%!

    But my argument still stands, you are simply demanding that the poll which fits with what you wish for is somehow truer, and any other poll must be wrong. What I’m trying to point out, rather facetiously I’ll admit, is that the sample asked will always determine the percentages, which is the argument you are using against the Ble Tels 70%, which is certainly a much larger sample group than those the other polls are using. In this context only a full population sample can be considered accurate, but even that will have the caveat about mixed motivations being simplified by reductive questions.

    The real issue is that the re-unification idea is commonly being represented as the old constitutionalist see-saw, rather than on sound economic grounds. Simply stated, Ireland has a motive for developing our economy, where Westminster has little or none to develop even their own English outlying regions. As in 1912, it is a choice of Dublin and prosperity or England and some continuing existence as one of those nine of the ten poorest regions in northern Europe which are Westminster’s responsibility. And this is something anyone sensible knows will only degenerate even more when the UK exits Europe and sets itself up as a tax haven for elite interests.

  • Zeno3

    Let me put it another way.
    In the 2017 Assembly Election the combined SF/SDLP vote was less than it was in 1998.

  • Zeno3

    Thanks for spotting my typo btw. But the point stands, SF/SDLP got less votes in 2017 Assembly Election than they did in 1998.

  • Skibo

    Put it what ever way you want and it will still be wrong because you are neglecting to take on board the 14000 votes for PBP, a party that was not around in 1998 and votes that obviously come from the Nationalist community.
    Have a look at the Unionist vote and tell me how you add it up. Will you only consider the UUP and the DUP votes and analyse them between 1998 and 2017? Did you get those new batteries yet?

  • Zeno3

    There has been no real growth in the Nationalist vote since 1998 no matter how you look at it. There has been no increase in support for United Ireland no matter what way you look at it. PBP don’t designate as a nationalist party but if you want to claim them as growth in nationalism an increase of 14000 over 19 years against an increased electorate is tiny.
    Even if it increased by 50,000 again over the next 19 years it is still not enough to achieve UI.

  • Fick Mealty

    Ah Zeno, it was a strange typo, but past form suggests these sort of mistakes are fairly typical of you before you ran away. But it is nice to see you back here, trolling away with all your fake statistics.

  • Zeno3

    But it is nice to see you back here, trolling away with all your fake statistics.

    LINK

  • Fick Mealty

    Trolliollio, good sir, you have failed to answer my first query when I signed up to Slugger:

    Why did you leave, 2 years ago?

    I can provide links to the last few conversations you had as “Zeno”, before you went away, but then you still have access to them, so so can you.

    Once you reply to me (post number 250 on slugger in 3 weeks, impressive flooding with fake stats), I will reply to you.

  • Zeno3

    LINK

  • Fick Mealty

    Zeno, why are you so afraid to explain why you fled Slugger 2 years ago, and indeed why you have come back now, but with a slightly different name? I asked several days ago, still asking now?

  • Zeno3

    LINK

  • Fick Mealty

    🙂 what are you hiding Zeno – why are you afraid to answer the question? 4 days and counting now!

    Why did you leave Slugger 2 years ago, and why have you come back now, but with a slightly different name? Same dodgy stats and typos, same old Zeno.

  • Zeno3

    LINK

  • Zeno3

    LINK

  • Skibo

    You must be the only analyst that thinks that PBP are anything but a Nationalist vote. Notice how the PBP vote went down considerably and the Sinn Fein vote went up.
    As the figures above showed, the Nationalist vote went up by 14000 AND the Unionist vote went down by 13000 over the same time.
    As for the support for reunification, I refer you to a historical event where the Nationalist support for home rule virtually dissapeared when Sinn Fein took 75% of the seats in Ireland over the space of a couple of years.

  • Fick Mealty

    Wow, look I don’t have the same time as you as school being over has no impact, but give me more than an hour to reply before you repost your request Zeno.

    Anyways, why did you leave Slugger 2 years ago, and why have you come back now, but with a slightly different name?

  • Zeno3

    OK lets take YOUR figures. The Nationalist vote increase combined with the fall in the unionist vote make a difference of in your book 27,000 over 19 years. That’s not even 1500 a year. The increase in the electorate between 1998 and 2017 was ______________
    1,254,709 – 1,178,556 = 76,153 and out of those 76,153 the nationalist vote only increased in your figures by 14,000 over 19 years.
    The nationalist surge idea isn’t stacking. Think about that for a minute. 76000 new voters and only 14000 turn out to be nationalist voters.

  • Skibo

    Well at least you are now agreeing that the Nationalist vote has grown. Now lets look at the other facts you have given.
    1254709 available voters in 1998, 823565 votes turned out.
    1242968 available voters in 2017 GE 812724 votes turned out (had to use the percentage to quantify).
    Now look again at that 10841 less voted in 2017 and still Nationalism raised their actual vote by 14000.
    And another point, Alliance registered 52.5K votes in 1998 and increased it to 64.5K in 2017, down from 72.7K in the assembly election.
    There is an issue with energising the Nationalist vote. The increase in the Nationalist vote is at the youth end where energising is happening. The issue will be getting the older generation to accept what is happening after years of Unionist domination. I believe they are starting to realise the strength of the Unionist domination is waining and they can help it along the road.
    Have you taken the time to analyse the Unionist vote yet?

  • Zeno3

    Of course the national vote has increased over the last 20 years.
    It went up by 20,000 in the last election from the previous election in 1997. In that period the electorate increased by 65,000 so Nationalist got less than 33% of the new voters. 45,000 new voters on the electoral register didn’t vote nationalist.

  • Skibo

    I am not disagreeing with you about the overall electorate or the fact that the electorate does not fully take into account the increased population as some people still refrain from joining the electoral register.
    What I will point out is you can only count the votes cast and you can only analyse the votes cast.
    The electorate increased by 65000 if you are correct and the Nationalist vote increased by 14000. The Unionist vote went down by 13000, closing the difference in the two groups by 27000. What does that tell you?
    Have you done any analysis on the Unionist vote or am I going to have to do it for you?
    As I have said in a number of different posts, the Nationalist vote has been greatly under represented and is only now being energised.
    When the changes come through to rectify the imbalance in the constituencies, you will start to feel the effects of demographics