As I write, the position is as follows:-
|Party||Actual seats||Expected final seats||2015-17 parliament||Change||Vote share||Vote share change|
The seven Sinn Fein MPs mean that only 643 MPs will take their seats, and due to the Speaker (counted temporarily as Conservative in the above table, although John Bercow will almost certainly be reappointed), the threshold for a majority is 322 instead of the proper 325.
With the DUP having reversed their loyalties since 2015, as I explained at the weekend, we now face the prospect of a Tory-DUP coalition, unless the Lib Dems are willing to go back into Government – but having their lessons from last time round, the price the Lib Dems will demand will be beyond the pale for the Tories.
This does however highlight one important point.
In a hung parliament, every seat counts. If the DUP either enter formal coalition or provide “confidence and supply” a vote for Sinn Fein in this election will indeed have been half a vote in favour of the DUP and the Conservatives because they can always rely on Sinn Fein not to oppose their legislation in the House of Commons.
And believe me, I say that proves my point from the weekend with absolutely no pleasure whatsoever.
I wanted to finish with a personal reflection.
Talking to friends of a similar evangelical Christian-social justice bent yesterday, we wondered if it would be a Kyrie eleison morning or a Gloria in excelsis Deo morning.
Well, it’s certainly not Gloria in Excelsis Deo for those who promote social democratic policies, including understanding how socialism and capitalism both squash entrepreneurship and innovation, and with fears for human rights (that which is turned against terrorists and other criminals can also be turned against the innocent) and justice (such as Theresa May’s proposals for improved worker rights, worthless as long as she prevents them being enforced with Industrial Tribunal fees.)
On the other hand, this election has left Theresa May substantially weaker rather than stronger with her proposals for a hard Brexit.
In Northern Ireland, it’s definitely Kyrie Eleison as all but one NI MP in the House of Commons will represent right wing politics. In the UK as a whole, perhaps it’s Veni veni emmanuel?