All over bar the shouting…

As I write, the position is as follows:-

PartyActual seatsExpected final seats2015-17 parliamentChangeVote shareVote share change
Conservatives314318330-1242.4%+5.6%
Labour261262232+3040.2%+9.5%
SNP353556-213.0%-1.7%
Liberal Democrats12128+47.1%-0.6%
DUP10108+20.9%+0.3%
Sinn Fein774+30.8%+0.2%
Plaid Cymru443+10.5%+0.1%
Green1111.6%-2.1%
Sylvia Hermon111
SDLP003-30.4%
UUP002-20.3%-0.1%
UKIP001-11.9%-10.8%

The seven Sinn Fein MPs mean that only 643 MPs will take their seats, and due to the Speaker (counted temporarily as Conservative in the above table, although John Bercow will almost certainly be reappointed), the threshold for a majority is 322 instead of the proper 325.

With the DUP having reversed their loyalties since 2015, as I explained at the weekend, we now face the prospect of a Tory-DUP coalition, unless the Lib Dems are willing to go back into Government – but having their lessons from last time round, the price the Lib Dems will demand will be beyond the pale for the Tories.

This does however highlight one important point.

In a hung parliament, every seat counts.  If the DUP either enter formal coalition or provide “confidence and supply” a vote for Sinn Fein in this election will indeed have been half a vote in favour of the DUP and the Conservatives because they can always rely on Sinn Fein not to oppose their legislation in the House of Commons.

And believe me, I say that proves my point from the weekend with absolutely no pleasure whatsoever.


I wanted to finish with a personal reflection.

Talking to friends of a similar evangelical Christian-social justice bent yesterday, we wondered if it would be a Kyrie eleison morning or a Gloria in excelsis Deo morning.

Well, it’s certainly not Gloria in Excelsis Deo for those who promote social democratic policies, including understanding how socialism and capitalism both squash entrepreneurship and innovation, and with fears for human rights (that which is turned against terrorists and other criminals can also be turned against the innocent) and justice (such as Theresa May’s proposals for improved worker rights, worthless as long as she prevents them being enforced with Industrial Tribunal fees.)

On the other hand, this election has left Theresa May substantially weaker rather than stronger with her proposals for a hard Brexit.

In Northern Ireland, it’s definitely Kyrie Eleison as all but one NI MP in the House of Commons will represent right wing politics.  In the UK as a whole, perhaps it’s Veni veni emmanuel?

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  • Skibo

    Rather than a coalition with the DUP, I think this will go as a minority government with DUP support. That way DUP will be able to abstain from votes they don’t think is in their interest in supporting and hopefully not get shafted as the Tory party of the North.

  • Jag

    Worth pointing out that LucidTalk is fairly poor with its exit poll. Its predictions for S Belfast and Foyle were off. Their “trending DUP” for E Belfast looks poor when you see the DUP’s 8,000 majority over Alliance. In N Belfast, John Finucane was just 2,000 off Nigel Dodds’s 21,000 but LucidTalk were 70-90% confident DUP would win.

    Most of the constituencies in N Ireland had a certain outcome. For the small number that were in the balance, LucidTalk weren’t very good.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/83b82830306385742c5202717a0f66b3e088c227512245d5fe349811b98737fa.jpg