The Irish government have just published their Brexit paper entitled “Ireland and the negotiations on the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union – The Government’s Approach”.
It makes interesting reading.
Notably as predicted – the Common Travel Area will more than likely be retained with the paper stating the CTA is not dependent on EU membership and that there is “no obvious legal barrier” to maintaining the CTA bilaterally. The EU Brexit negotiation guidelines effectively accepting the Common Travel Area will remain as the text states it will “recognise existing bilateral agreements”.
— Peter Hain (@PeterHain) March 2, 2017
The paper also indicates that a WTO Brexit will lead to Irish job losses (A third of all fish landed by Irish vessels are caught in UK waters), inflation and a competitive advantage for the UK. In the long term Irish GDP could end up being 3.8% below baseline. It states the effects will be deep and extensive to the Irish economy and that the EU may have to help financially.
The document also hints that the EU needs the UK to pay an exit fee so they can subsidise EU farmers via CAP and that they will attempt to shackle the UK on issues such as state aid & corporate tax and aim to prevent the UK having an `unfair competitive advantage`.