Irish Brexit paper reveals the EU will likely seek to shackle the UK

The Irish government have just published their Brexit paper entitled “Ireland and the negotiations on the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union – The Government’s Approach”.

It makes interesting reading.

Notably as predicted – the Common Travel Area will more than likely be retained with the paper stating the CTA is not dependent on EU membership and that there is “no obvious legal barrier” to maintaining the CTA bilaterally. The EU Brexit negotiation guidelines effectively accepting the Common Travel Area will remain as the text states it will “recognise existing bilateral agreements”.

Prime Minister David Cameron as well as former PM’s Tony Blair, John Major and Peter Mandelson had all indicated a hard border would appear.

The paper also indicates that a WTO Brexit will lead to Irish job losses (A third of all fish landed by Irish vessels are caught in UK waters), inflation and a competitive advantage for the UK. In the long term Irish GDP could end up being 3.8% below baseline.  It states the effects will be deep and extensive to the Irish economy and that the EU may have to help financially.

The document also hints that the EU needs the UK to pay an exit fee so they can subsidise EU farmers via CAP and that they will attempt to shackle the UK on issues such as state aid & corporate tax and aim to prevent the UK having an `unfair competitive advantage`.

  • Andrew Gallagher

    The CTA only applies to people. If the UK leaves the customs union, then a hard customs frontier will exist – the only question is where. Also, the CTA only applies to UK and Irish citizens. It has never applied to third party nationals, as anyone who’s ever been “randomly” stopped at Connolly station can attest.

  • Gavin Smithson

    Sorry Mr Fealty but this is my final posting here. I know it’s off topic but thank you for creating this forum. The reason I’m no longer posting is that it , through no fault of your own I hasten to add, it is too Green tinged. There are hardly any Unionist voices. Even any reasonable SDLP nationalist voices are shouted down by a seemingly overwhelming republican presence

    I don’t know why Unionists don’t engage as much but may I be bold to suggest that the name of the site Slugger O Toole sounds too Irish to a Unionist ear?

    Well that’s me. Sorry once again to go off topic but I don’t know how else to pass on feedback.

  • George

    “A WTO Brexit will lead to …. a competitive advantage for the UK resulting in Irish GDP being 3.8% below baseline”

    The paper says that in a worst case scenario Irish GDP will be 3.8% below baseline after 10 years if there are no Brexit mitigating steps taken by the Irish government.

    As for the competitive advantage, it states:

    “Less demanding regulation and a lowering of standards could put UK firms at a competitive advantage whilst further advantages could emerge from the UK’s future ability to support its industries and business through the use of State Aid.”

    Nowhere does it state that it’s the possible competitive advantage for the UK that will result in a drop in Irish GDP. If anything it’s the loss of Irish competitiveness due to tariffs that is highlighted.

  • robin hood

    Sorry Ireland is looking after Ireland, The UK should now abolish the CTA, it will simplify how we control our borders by leaving it in place complicates things in other areas, namely Scotland and GibralterIf the Irish wish to be a constructive and supportive partner to the oppressive EUSSR then let the EU support them financially. I’m sure we can scource alternative mushroom and beef suppliers worldwide, so what if they are worried about tariffs on their goods, they are not whining when they are trying to attact financial services from UK, its dog eat dog Im afraid

  • Madra Uisce

    You could always email Mick directly ,that said dont let the door hit you on the way out.Slan

  • Fear Éireannach

    This is why the customs end of things needs to be moved to the Irish sea and the CTA reformulated to allow people circulate throughout Ireland.

  • Kevin Breslin

    Wow the Common Travel Area is maintained … well isn’t nice that the Irish have agreed to allow the British into Ireland as predicted.

    I am sure Britain will reward Ireland handsomely for their efforts because The Brexiter Tories and the Brexiteer Unionists were sweating like this was a major crisis or something.

    I mean they really want to save all their brinkmanship for messing up freight transport not their holidays in Roscommon, Mayo, Galway, Cork or Dublin.

    Alas they were the only ones who seemed to be doubting it … maybe they were busy fighting EU demons in their own head.

    As for the state aid and other things … the United Kingdom will be insisting on similar stuff from the European Union too. The United Kingdom will also unilaterally avoid state aid provisions anyway. It’s because state-aid is actually a non-tariff barrier to free trade.

    So watch this space.

  • Kevin Breslin

    Never let a full piece of research get in the way of good propaganda.

    The Irish left the UK market years ago, it would have to adapt to some losses.

    As will the United Kingdom with regards to the European Union/EEA and other trading partners.

    We just do not know how bad the United Kingdom may screw up Brexit, no one should be putting all their eggs in the volatile UK basket if they can afford to diversify.

    Economies are at best steered by financial engineers and visionary entrepeneurs and well persistent grafters, they are not the servants of political con-artists.

  • Kevin Breslin

    Okay, can I speak for the unreasonable SDLP voices?

  • Kevin Breslin

    The other thing on the paper is “Dispute Resolution” … I imagine most Brexiteers think that Westminster is honest enough to referee its own game, dido Remain supporters and the European Union.

    Perhaps this is why the UK goes down the WTO route … the problem is that instead of a mere 27 countries to negotiate with, you need to get unilateral support from 200 or so including the 27 countries.

    That would not be very smart for the UK’s aspirations of being a tough and hostile trading nation, sorry I mean a “champion of free trade”.

  • Jim Jetson

    Isn’t the UK lucky that muppets like you are not in charge, considering that 45% of British exports go to the EU. And 33% of NI exports go south of the border.

    Good luck replacing that trade with Mozambique and Pakistan.

  • Macca

    Surely this just reflects demographics? Sooner or later you’re going to have to get used to this dominance of the “Irish” voice in all walks of life in the north east, my friend. Instead of walking away, embrace it. You can’t halt the forces of nature.

  • Obelisk

    I’ve seen Nationalist posters comment on the site having a Unionist bias at times too.

    Maybe it’s all in the eye of the beholder?

  • The Irishman

    Sounds to Irish for Unionist ears… wise up.

  • Kevin Breslin

    The Lady’s equivalent of a gentleman’s agreement.

  • erasmus

    ”I don’t know why Unionists don’t engage as much but may I be bold to suggest that the name of the site Slugger O Toole sounds too Irish to a Unionist ear?”

    With all due respect, Gavin, that was the most disturbing and revealing part of your posting.

  • Frank Costello

    are you in the CTA?

  • T.E.Lawrence

    In the event of a Border Poll Macca keep yourself free and available to canvass Sandy Row with me ! Better still I will sit in the Rangers Club and have a few pints and you go around the doors spouting off how you are going to dominate them people living in those houses ! I’ll buy you a few pints when you are finished as you sure as hell will have just returned 100% voting return opposed to Your All Ireland where them nasty prods are going to be dominated and done Unionism’s work for it ! #Well Done

  • NotNowJohnny

    The forum is too Green tinged. If I stay it will be less Green tinged. So I’m leaving.

  • NotNowJohnny

    What is it that those in sandy row are most afraid of in relation to a united Ireland?

  • T.E.Lawrence

    As Macca has just said DOMINATION ! Prods do as your told ?
    Feck That !

  • Hmm – depends what you are counting 60% of Northern Ireland exports go to rUK compared to 14.7% to the Republic & 8.2% to rEU & 16.5% to rWorld. Sales to the EU count for under 8% of total NI sales.

  • Merely pointing out that a good deal will be beneficial to all sides

  • I can see how you read it like that – I have changed it.

  • And non EU Isle of Man and Channel Isles

  • All the more reason to stay.

  • The point of Brexit being – that will be up to the UK government (Tory, Labour or whatever)

  • aquifer

    The big exit payment is just the ritual humiliation of any leaver. Britain can afford to borrow to pay it and then do the dealing, but my guess is that May & Co will crash out.

  • Paul Hagan

    Are you standing in the election this time Alan? Will UKIP be fielding any candidates in NI in the Westminster contest?

  • Max

    Do you realise that a UI would protect ‘Prods’ in a way that a very Green SF dominated NI couldn’t?

  • Kevin Breslin

    Brexit will be as much decided by the European Union as it would be by the British government.

    The delusions of splendid isolationism will have to end.

  • Skibo

    And there lays the problem with the NI economy. We have not looked past the rest of the UK to the EU properly. The South has and since they joined the EEC, trade with the UK has dropped from 55% to 16%. They have flourished and GDP has went through the roof.
    We in the North are still tied to the apron strings of the UK and will not succeed till we look further.

  • Skibo

    Domination of what, eating fish on a Friday?

  • Tochais Siorai

    Ah, Johnny. Not now.

  • Tochais Siorai

    First Brexit and now this.

    Is there no end?

  • Enda

    What if the ‘O’ was dropped to become Slugger Toole, would you be happy then? There are plenty of strong Unionist voices on this forum, I have had many strong arguments with vocal Unionists on here, your problem is you don’t dominate the narrative, like you want to dominate everything else!

    My but you’re a cold and bitter man!

  • Skibo

    Gavin does that not say more about the strength of your message more than anything else?

  • Pang

    Correct, CTA only applies to Irish & British citizens. This really only counts traveling between the two islands though as anyone can travel north – south in a car without getting stopped. The questions are how much shopping will we be allowed to bring across? Will white van man be able to straddle the boarder during his work day still without paying? Who will police the new rules and how? What criminal behaviour will be insentivised?

  • Andrew Gallagher

    I used to work in NUIG and I had to constantly warn the non-EU students that sure, they could go to the Giant’s Causeway and probably nothing would happen. But if they drew too much attention to themselves they could get deported, and it wouldn’t be to Galway…

  • T.E.Lawrence

    Go on enlightened me ?

  • T.E.Lawrence

    Ask Macca ? He/She seems to know ?

  • Pang

    Good example of a law that nobody wants to fully enforce. I suppose future arrangements may be as ambiguous in reality.

  • Oriel27

    HI Pang, i cross the border everyday to work. from South to North. the road i travel is less than 3 metres wide. The amount of cars using that road is only about 50 journeys a day.
    Are they going to put customs checkpoints up on that?
    How practical will that be ?

    May i add, that road i travel everyday now was closed for 30 years because of the troubles.

    there is more that 200 crossings. Its simply wont be and cant be policed. A hard border cant work.

  • Roger

    Another category of person who can attest to limits of CTA are foreign visa required nationals who, owing to CTA, aka Double Visa Area, need a U.K. Transit visa to transit through a U.K. Airport en route to Ireland.

  • Roger

    Regrettably the EU has an organization to protect. A bigger interest. A “good deal” (concessions to U.K.) might not being best interests of that broader interest.

  • lizmcneill

    Good luck controlling the Irish border. And what does the CTA have to do with Scotland and Gibraltar?

  • lizmcneill

    Because all of NI looks like Sandy Row?

  • Joe Thorpe

    I would suggest the best option would be random stopping from the UK side with a hard border at the ferry & airports. Soft border could be not employing someone who doesn’t have a National Insurance number in place & people not Born in Ireland being restricted from obtaining an NI number. The cost of goods moving between the South to the North in the scale of things isn’t worth the hassle from the UK point of view. Southern reg vehicles being registered in the North would be taxed as is the case the other way around & vehicles Driven by Non Irish Nationals could be seized unless they have proof they are only there on holiday much like UK cars can be seized in the South.

  • The Living End

    You’re afraid we’ll treat you the way you’ve always treated us

  • T.E.Lawrence

    Who is us ?

  • Pang

    Good man Joe, you have all it sorted there!

  • Macca

    1) Do you understand the term “dominate”? Loads of different meanings old boy. 2) Why would I want to go to the supporters club of a rubbish Scottish football team? No thank you. 3) “Nasty Prods”. What on earth are you talking about? 4) “Border Poll”: Democracy will decide – threats of violence and terrorism won’t win.

    Demographics and nature will win the day and unity will be restored. You either go with the flow, adapt and reconfigure or mope around getting angry about how the world is passing you by.

  • T.E.Lawrence

    Sandy Row Prods know what you meant by your definition of domination ? Good Luck on that score of putting your blooded and disgraced flag which represents the murder of so much Irishmen above our houses ?

  • Madra Uisce

    I will sit in the Rangers Club

    Is that like a museum or something?

  • Madra Uisce

    craic, and a few pints over an Old Firm game like everyone else.

    Er dont you mean Glasgow derby, where have you been for the last five years.

  • NotNowJohnny

    Forgive me that I didn’t grasp this first time. I have to confess that given the seriousness of the issue, I didn’t really expect the answer to be shorter than the question.

    How exactly will this domination manifest itself? Will there be particular legislation specifically aimed at Protestants? Will it also apply to Protestants in the south? Will there be policies that will prevent Protestants getting houses, jobs or access to health or social services? Will there be restrictions on Protestant church services? Who exactly will be telling the Protestants what to do and what sort of things will they be telling them to do? Does this sort of domination already apply to Protestants in Donegal? Help me understand what you are claming here.

  • T.E.Lawrence

    great another good volunteer to go canvassing in Sandy Row for an All Ireland Republic !

  • T.E.Lawrence Tell Mrs Elliott from Boyne Square – Sandy Row that she had the good fortune of being able to dominate other people ????

  • NotNowJohnny

    That’s two goes you have had at answering the question and I’m still none the wiser. I even provided you with some questions to help clarify things. But to no avail. You couldn’t even answer a single one of them. Could it be that you simply made up the claim that the prods will be dominated? Could that be the reason that you can’t have a sensible discussion on it? Or could it be that you really believe that the prods will be dominated but when pressed you cannot find any evidence to support that and therefore you post a picture of a woman in an apron instead?Or could it be that you don’t like the idea of a UI so you will say just about anything to justify it even if what you say makes no sense whatsoever? It’s always interesting to get an insight into the unionist mindset and try to understand whether the fears expressed are real or imaginary.

  • Pang

    I sincerely hope they find a way to do this properly, and if not that they have the wisdom to ignore the rules and leave the whole boarder open.

  • Croiteir

    I would not dream of flying our beloved flag, the emblem of freedom and deliverance from foreign domination , above anyone’s house a that would be a contradiction of its symbolism, so long as it is fling above the buildings of government.

  • Croiteir

    A poor pet, what is up? someone contradict you, not accepting their proper place, bloody croppies, why don’t they just lie down?

  • Kevin Breslin

    Also the consequences of Brexit will be decided by the denizens of the state, a big school has more people (social, political and economic agents) than the House of Commons does.

  • john millar

    “This is why the customs end of things needs to be moved to the Irish sea and the CTA reformulated to allow people circulate throughout Ireland.”

    The borders agency controls people and Goods A move to the Irish sea as a Frontier is wholly feasible. It removes the need for the CTA and we can have two queues –British passport holders here Others there.

  • john millar

    “the whole boarder open.”
    Male or female -what will he/she be open for?

  • john millar

    “Does this sort of domination already apply to Protestants in Donegal? Help me understand what you are claming here.”
    Ask teh Rankin family beaten up for being in possession of teh Protestant faith without due care and attention

  • john millar

    ” Could it be that you simply made up the claim that the prods will be dominated? ”
    Suggest you examine Irish history -particularly 1922 on

  • john millar

    “You’re afraid we’ll treat you the way you’ve always treated us”
    Hmm that will be

    Provision of free education in the religious schools of your choice.
    Preferring our religious grouping in the allocation of public housing
    Providing full and free access to a national Health Service
    Providing full and free access to Social services and unemployment benefits

    Can`t wait

  • john millar

    In short what happened before 1969

  • Fear Éireannach

    Persons legally resident in the ROI should be given the clear legal right to visit the 6 counties on a shopping or tourist trip, whatever about fortress Britain.

  • NotNowJohnny

    I didn’t say were. I said will. Will is future tense. Post 1922 is the past. This is your chance now to clarify the nature of this future alleged domination by answering the questions that the previous respondent didn’t/couldn’t.

  • John Collins

    `Come on TE.. Has the Union Jack ever been disgraced?
    The fact is that during the troubles in the North SF/IRA had minuscule support in the South. In fact there more Jewish TDs in Leinster House for most of that period than SF/IRA men. Some people refer to the fact that the Southern Judicial System were somewhat reluctant to extradite suspected IRA men to the British Justice system. However after the complete cock up that was made of the Bermingham, Guilford, McGuire Family and other cases it is easy to understand why it was felt that at that time no Irish person could expect a fair trial in the GB Jurisdiction.
    The is nobody in the Republic gives a flying duck about what religion anybody else is in 2017. The fact is the RCC is in total retreat and is hardly able to open its mouth in the abortion debate and their opinions were widely disregarded in the SSM debate.

  • john millar

    “didn’t say were. I said will. Will is future tense. Post 1922 is the past. This is your chance now to clarify the nature of this future alleged domination by answering the questions that the previous respondent didn’t/couldn’t.”

    Try current then

    Best example around is the 17000 odd prods eliminated for “Derry” their businesses mysteriously transferring to “more appropriate ” hands. Their children being attacked on(and off) public transport -these attacks forcing the school to relocate to the Waterside.

  • NotNowJohnny

    Do you have the link to the 17000 story?

  • john millar
  • NotNowJohnny

    So your evidence for the claim that the Protestants of sandy row will be dominated in a UI is a six year old BBC article about the potential relocation of a couple of primary schools at least one which never actually relocated and a nine year old article on slugger which states that the truth regarding the movement of Protestants from the western part of Derry is probably nowhere near as cut and dried as either side quite believes? And neither of these articles refer to anything that took place in the ROI. Have I got that right?

  • john millar

    “states that the truth regarding the movement of Protestants from the western part of Derry is probably nowhere near as cut and dried as either side quite believes? And neither of these articles refer to anything that took place in the ROI. Have I got that right?”

    1 I have direct experience of the “derry ” events 17000 gone from the West Bank
    2 Foyle college is not a primary school
    3 The experience of the prod in derry mirrors that of the now nearly extinct prod in the ROI

  • James Connolly

    The Irish government has just introduced scanning of all passports at airports. Whether from CTA or not. Every person scanned and recorded every time. That is the definition of a hard border.
    Imagine the outrage if we had to queue for an hour at Manchester airport passport control? Why the UK authorities don’t retaliate is beyond me.
    Irish exceptionalism.