Suddenly everyone is eating LibDems..

There’s going to be plenty of time to figure all the detail out later, but one hunch I have been labouring under for some time is the supposition that for all the talk of how UKIP would eat Labour or the Conservatives the party they actually ate was the Lib Dems. Necessarily so, since after 2010 some of their MPs were dug in very shallowly and could no longer count on tactical votes from Labour voters.

The Lib Dems were, effectively, everyone else’s survivalist rations. In Mid Dorset for instance, the Ashcroft Polls found that whilst the Conservative vote was defecting to UKIP they were going in much larger numbers from the Lib Dems.

The dalliance with coalition politics appears short lived. And this may be one key reason why so many last minute deciders acted to get rid of the source of the political uncertainty (or the mudguard as we know it in Ireland).

  • chrisjones2

    Interesting outcome as is speculation that those of Shadow Cabinet who are left have basically resigned en masse – as well they might do

    This is a political; watershed.

    We will now have 5 years of Conservative rule during which boundary changes will end the Labour Gerrymander and hand them back around 20 seats stolen by Labour and the Lib Dems.

    Labour is basically finished.The blood letting will be like a week out at the Roman Coliseum

    The Lib Dems are probably finished and may end up merged with the Greens (and just as relevant)

    Scotland will either go completely or into a Federal Structure with reduced seats at Westminster as will Wales and possibly NI

    Cameron will seize the centre right now he knows he is safe from UKIP and the right wing. He can afford a referendum on renegotiation and will win it while keeping the UK in Europe

    Then its probably mostly Tory Governments in England for say the next 20 years

    Oh ….and Dodds odds on for speaker by end June with the DUP and UUP playing a supportive role for the next 5 years in return for some similar trinkets

    Now Marty – about that Austerity old son!!!! The Labour Government Fig :Leaf has vanished and they actually lost a seat

  • tmitch57

    “The Lib Dems were effectively everyone else’s survival rations.”

    The same phenomenon has been found in Israel with Meretz voters suddenly defecting to the more nationalist Labor Party when it has been under threat from the Israeli Right. It is a symptom of bloc loyalty more than party loyalty. When party members of a particular party perceive themselves as members of a larger ideological bloc that is under threat from the enemy ideological bloc, they will vote for the more powerful party in that bloc to keep it victorious or strong. In NI you find this with the sectarian unionist and nationalist blocs and the phenomena of pacts and “loaned votes.”