#IndyRef: And the betting market says it will be a No from Scotland, but…

So here’s Betfair calling tomorrow’s real referendum poll for a No. At the time of recording a full 78% of the money was going there.  It’s one of their biggest ever markets, so according there’s a lot money to be had for a courageous Yes bet.

With so much money behind a No, it’s certainly worth a tenner on Yes, if only to make it interesting for wibbly wobbly No folk. Or as Mike reminds us…

As any punter knows the key is not just having good information, but having an edge in information (or understanding) over those you’re betting against (whether bookmakers themselves or other punters on an exchange) and the progressing prominence of polling erodes some of the edge we’ve tried to tease out from datasets and weighting changes..

Nuff said…

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  • Niall Chapman

    I’ve also been informed that there may be a reason behind the early payout:
    Founder of Betfair: Gerald Corbett.
    Corbett as well as being the founder and Chairman of Betfair he is also the chairman of SSL International
    SSL International is a manufacturer of healthcare products, and one of the companies set to profit from NHS privatisation
    From 1997-2000 Corbett was appointed the CEO of Railtrack, another company which was one of the first to profit from the Privatisation of the British Rail Network.
    Corbett is also the grandson of Conservative MP “Sir” Cyril Black.

    I wonder if Betfair have any vested interests?

  • mickfealty

    Yo, tin foil hats, ON!

    Niall, it’s the polls. My reasoning back in Feb was that Yes needs a lead to burn in the polling booth when people make the decision to take Scotland out of the UK. The campaign for all the dark edges, has been magnificent, and it needed to be. A five per cent gap would dispel punter pessimism.

  • Clanky

    What a way to kick start the economy of a new independent Scotland, a massive surge in bets on Yes, followed by a yes vote tomorrow and then a massive payout from the bookies.

  • Superfluous

    The betting markets are very volatile – Betfair has been surging from 7/4 Yes to 7/2 and back all week, and it seems to be very reactive to the polls. These poll samples are too small though, and I very much doubt the betting markets have any more information at hand than the average punter on the street (otherwise they would be more solid and less volatile as big players stood their ground based on actual probabilities).

  • Niall Chapman

    Fair enough with the “tin foil hats” comment, but the guy clearly stands to benefit if Scotlands NHS is privatised in the future
    As regards the polls
    There was a 6 point gap in the ICM poll: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/09/13/scottish-independence-poll-yes-lead-_n_5816024.html
    But given it’s just one poll and the fact that there will be no exit polls its hard to see much money going on yes even late on Thursday.
    At any rate I’m praying for a Yes vote, theres a Scottish bar where I live called the Loch Inn, and if its a Yes another Hogmany is sure to ensue on 18/09/2014

  • terence patrick hewett

    Bookies odds are estimates of implied probabilities and are only right about the balance of money bet. They have no view on the outcome, only that they will be still in profit whoever wins. So the odds have no value at all in predicting the outcome: bookies odds are not predictive they are priced. There’s an important difference, they are based on how people are betting as well as guestimates of what the result will be. And how people bet on politics and vote is very, very, rarely governed by either extra knowledge or analysis of existing data: if it exists.

    If you believe that bookies are always right: take your house and all your money up to the very shirt on your back and put it on the party of your choice. Best of…..Luck?

  • It’s going to be a massive decisive Yes! Been canvassing in many different parts of Scotland over the last week and everywhere I have seen has been massively in support of Yes. Phenomenal Support for independence!!!

  • Zeno1

    The Betfair Exchange quoted isn’t a Bookmaker. The rest of your post doesn’t apply to the exchange. First of all it is a 100% market and is made by people with opinions that they are prepared to support with money. So far 5.5 million has been traded and matched. Around 750k has been matched on the Yes Vote and the rest £4.75 million says it will be a NO.

  • Mister_Joe

    Scotty, are you sure you aren’t just ignoring the naysayers given the polls? I don’t have a strong opinion on either side but one thing is sure, regardless of the outcome things will never be the same. The Scots folks are pretty smart and they’ll do just fine either way.

  • Zeno1

    I think you are going to be really disappointed, but since the result doesn’t effect me I wish you luck.

  • You will be eating your words this time tomorrow. Can’t wait!

  • Polls are nonsense, totally biased in favour of Westminster naysayers – Yes will triumph!

  • mickfealty

    Don’t kid yourself, it will affect all of us. That said, better a wide margin than a tight one. Think 2000 US election and the poison that set in.

    iS will need all the unity it can muster for what’s ahead.

  • Zeno1

    Somebody will, but I don’t think it will be me. Time will tell and as I said before Good Luck.

  • Mister_Joe

    What say you now, Scotty?

  • Mister_Joe

    What are you eating today, Scotty?

  • Mister_Joe

    Yeah, right.

  • Mister_Joe

    Just watched Salmond on TV. The man is totally in denial. Go figure!