#IndyRef: And the betting market says it will be a No from Scotland, but…


So here’s Betfair calling tomorrow’s real referendum poll for a No. At the time of recording a full 78% of the money was going there.  It’s one of their biggest ever markets, so according there’s a lot money to be had for a courageous Yes bet.

With so much money behind a No, it’s certainly worth a tenner on Yes, if only to make it interesting for wibbly wobbly No folk. Or as Mike reminds us…

As any punter knows the key is not just having good information, but having an edge in information (or understanding) over those you’re betting against (whether bookmakers themselves or other punters on an exchange) and the progressing prominence of polling erodes some of the edge we’ve tried to tease out from datasets and weighting changes..

Nuff said…


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