Ho hum, and now the Union of Great Britain (and that other bit) sits on a knife edge…

Cannot go to bed without posting this.. 1st YouGov Yes poll

The numbers represent a four-point increase for YES support since YouGov’s last Scottish independence poll conducted a week ago (August 28-September 1). Opposition to independence has fallen from 53% to 49%.

The percentages reported exclude those who wouldn’t vote and don’t know. With those groups included ‘Yes’ are on 47% and ‘No’ are on 45%.

And this from Panelbase…

Yes Scotland Panelbase poll just released:

Yes: 44%
No: 48%
Undecided: 8%

Excluding undecideds
Yes: 48%
No: 52%

  • Ernekid

    It’s going to be fun watching the Westminster establishment collectively brown their pants over the next week. They’re all ready panicking like headless chickens.

    Next Saturdays orange march in Edinburgh will shore up the yes vote nicely. The sight of thousands of loutish Northern Irish loyalists swigging buckfast and abusing people will likely push the final undecided edinburghers to vote Yes.

    I can’t wait for the look on the DUPs face on Friday morning when they realise Scotland has voted to break the union. It’ll be priceless.

  • Michael Henry

    Sir Paul McCartney-no
    Sir Bruce Forsyth-no
    Sir Bobby Chartlon-no
    Sir Mick Jagger-no

    Get more Sirs to say no so more People will Vote Yes-

  • Red Lion

    I’m not in denial about the trajectory and narrowing gap of yes and no.
    I would highlight social media rumours that Yes activists have been apparently urging their flock to ‘join Yougov’, seemingly then to have more of an impact of their surveys. Yougovs have previously been one of the most no-friendly of pollsters.
    I didn’t even know one could ‘join’ a survey or however it works, but that’s the rumour doing the rounds on social media with ‘evidence’ flashed up. Whereas Panelbase keeps that No-lead gap.
    But who knows. Westminster will be going ape and Milliband has already made a kneejerk hash up already

  • mickfealty

    So stereotyping west Belfast bad, stereotyping the Orange good? [Topic?]

  • mickfealty

    It’s the lack of preparation that always gets the incumbent government, and in this case it’s Westminster. In the Republic over Nice and Lisbon, they could just call another one. But if this baby goes Yes, it’s over.

    Partition is not for Christmas… 😉

  • Robin Keogh

    I am afraid to allow myself to believe that the UK could be over as we know it, as much as I would like to see Scotland go it alone I simply find it impossible to allow myself to hope that it might come true; I really feel that regardless of the polls the pro-union side will win out on the day, all be it a much tighter hop over the finish line. Who could have thought that the UK as a Nation could come this close to dismemberment? Incredible stuff.

  • Mister_Joe

    If the final vote is “No” by only a few percentage, when can the next referendum be held? Will there be a neverendum?

  • dansmith17

    You gov is an internet poll so you register with them and they send you surveys, I’m interested in politics and that’s why I joined but I have only once had a poll with political questions in 2 years they are usually about marketing exercises for rebranded chocolate biscuits or shampoo!
    If you fill in enough you get a few quid, but influencing the political polls is unlikely.

    Lots of new people joining in Scotland May happen but they are not going to be getting the political polls.

  • dansmith17

    Looks like lots of people in Westminster and Whitehall are going to be getting out files from 1922, until very recently London has simply not been taking the possibility seriously.

    The other issue is a very close vote is not going to helpful either way, a tight NO will have the Nats pushing for one more heave in 5-10 years, while a Yes, would have 40% of the population saying we told you so to every teething problem of setting up the new state.

  • Jag

    Close opinion poll results mean neither side can take the outcome for granted. Given the “no” vote’s established lead (until this weekend), the prospect of a “yes” win may galvanise them to get their voters out, complacency won’t be an issue. On the other hand, the tantalising lead of the “yes” side might have a similar galvanising effect.

    Fear tends to trump love in human dealings though, so unless the polls move more emphatically in the “yes” direction, the current close polling might just galvanise the “no” vote more on the day.

    Regardless of the outcome though, what bones will be thrown by Westminster at Edinburgh this coming week to secure the “no” vote, and can our lot demand similar bones for this place? If Westminster relaxes welfare reform in Scotland, will the Shinners demand equality and then trumpet the greatest political coup here for the last decade?

  • Am Ghobsmacht

    Can you imagine if the YES vote triumphed by the exact same number of people who were ‘turned off’ by the Orange march?

    There would be some delicious irony in that, the 12th of July in Glasgow would never be the same…

  • chrisjones2

    As someone else pointed out, its delicious that in a small island nation, republicans are delighting in the fact that part of the next island may vote to go it alone from those whom they share the island with

    I can only attribute it to anti English sentiment – or Racism as we used to call it

    As for me, if they choose to go it alone Good Luck to the Scots. As for those few in the political chattering classes who will ‘brown their pants’ should ask themselves why? They might also remember that Scotland was not conquered by England – the English engineered its corporate rescue after its ruling class had bankrupted themselves and the county in foreign speculations In effect they bought it out and it has cost them dear ever since. Letting go will be emotional – for much has grown that binds us all – but politically and financially England Wales and NI will be better off

  • chrisjones2

    Its just like SF Mick.

    They are following the CHinese model in Hong Kong – one country two systems but with bit of fascist threatening in the background

  • chrisjones2

    If the YES vote is over 40% the Scots will have buggered up inward investment their economy for the next 10 years as they will be seen as unstable

  • Neil

    I find the irony of the Unionist position delicious, while determined to maintain the border here they seem to be all for unification of the island next door. I attribute it to anti Irish sentiment – or racism as we used to call it.

  • Morpheus

    Says who, you?

    It could just as easily be argued that companies will be lining up to take advantage of all the opportunities that an independent Scotland has to offer.

    We are not talking about a third world country with no resources coming out of a violent dictatorship ffs

    Revolutionary idea I know but how about leaving the future of Scotland in the hands of those who can actually make a difference by viting instead of pontificating from afar

  • chrisjones2

    Oh do read what I wrote – which is in favour of people choosing

  • chrisjones2

    all the opportunities that an independent Scotland

    Yeah ….no currency questionable membership of the EU and higher taxes Great recipe

  • chrisjones2

    Yes…and the SNP attitude to the currency is just simply amazing. They are relying on the Brits to bail them out …and that is highly unlikely because the public will not stand for it qad UKIP are snapping at both major parties’ heels

  • chrisjones2

    Whatever it is I really hope it is a clear result either a yes or a clear no Anything else will be a disaster

  • carl marks

    Mick, even the better together lot think the OO march wont help the No side, and to be fair a SF march in Glasgow supporting Yes would harm the Yes vote.
    I think we are talking about the perception that the Scots electorate will have about the march and lets face it when the OO hits the news in Scotland its rarely that it their good works has got them noticed!

  • Morpheus

    I don’t know where you have been but:
    1. an independent Scotland will be using the pound,
    2. Scotland will remain part of the EU and the Scottish Government proposes to agree the terms of Scotland’s continued membership of the EU between September 18th and the proposed date of independence on 24th March 2016.
    3. As for taxes then on independence, Scotland will inherit the tax system and the prevailing UK rates and thresholds for all taxes – they will then decide what to do going forward but interestingly Alex Salmond has already talked about decreasing corporation tax to 3% below that of the UK potentially creating 27k jobs.

    So yeah, opportunities

    Or as Homer says…

  • kensei

    Britain is not an island nation. Scotland has been a separate country for 1000 years

  • terence patrick hewett

    I think whichever way the referendum goes the sh*t is going to hit the fan and my impression is that the English are going to opt for federation which has not really been considered before by them. The situation is so fluid that only the ref. result will clear the air and we will be able to see what the options are. The future I rather suspect will be realpolitik hardball.

  • chrisjones2

    I disagree

    1 an independent Scotland will be using the pound
    It can use Zimbabwean Dollars if it wants. It will however not be in a currency union and have no control of UK fiscal policy. That represents risk. And all those Scottish pound notes issued by Scottish banks will cease to be UK money – they will be Scottish and worth less

    2. Scotland will remain part of the EU and the Scottish Government proposes to agree the terms of Scotland’s continued membership of the EU between September 18th and the proposed date of independence on 24th March 2016.

    Yes…it remains part of the EU until independence when it ceases to be a member. The EU have said clearly that re admission if granted will take at least 5 years

    3. As for taxes then on independence, Scotland will inherit the tax system and the prevailing UK rates and thresholds for all taxes – they will then decide what to do going forward but interestingly Alex Salmond has already talked about decreasing corporation tax to 3% below that of the UK potentially creating 27k jobs.

    Yeah …..hes also making lots of electoral promises with no £ to pay for them. As a left wing government it will tax till the pips squeak. It will also see a flight out of major businesses. A cut in Corporation tax is useless if your assets valued in real money are dropping in value like a stone

    The only way to square this is an effective devaluation. Now for a country so dependent on imports of everything but oil that will be expensive – for the Scots. Add to that the burden of providing jobs to all thsoe young scots who normally head south but will now need visas as theya re no longer EU Citizens and it will be a jpoyous birth

  • tmitch57

    Dan,
    That has been my experience with You Gov in the States. So, I don’t take it all that seriously as a poll as there is no demographic weighting–they don’t check to see if their respondents match the general population in terms of race, educational level, religion, etc.

  • Robin Keogh

    What nonsense, scotland is a modern economically progressive country, hitched or not to the UK it has the social, political and global interconnectedness to succeed just as well as any other modern neo liberal state.

  • terence patrick hewett

    What will be the status of the +/- 33 Scots representing British seats other than Scottish: presumably they will have to resign since they will be regarded as aliens. (LSE data 2012)

  • Mister_Joe

    Interesting point. If the vote is “Yes” will those folks holding UK passports be allowed to continue and to renew them?

  • Morpheus

    “Scottish citizens will be able to apply for a Scottish passport from day one of independence, with a Scottish passport costing the same as a UK passport. On the other hand, people will be able to continue using their existing UK passport until it expires. They can then choose to get a Scottish passport when their existing passport is due for renewal, or a replacement British passport (if the individual still qualifies for one)”

  • Cinaedmor

    Any UK citizen can obtain a UK passport even if they currently reside in another country. Most Scots, having been born in the UK, will continue to qualify for a passport.

    Everyone in Scotland who is currently a citizen, should Yes prevail, will be able to obtain a Scottish passport. Should Scotland follow the UK example anyone with a parent/grandparent who is, or was, a qualifying citizen may also be able to obtain a Scottish passport.

    No one should be scared into thinking that they’ll find themselves robbed of the citizenship(s) to which they are entitled.

  • Mister_Joe

    Thanks Morpheus and Cinaedmor.

  • Ulidian Realist

    The biggest harm to “Better Together” is that it being run by the anti-British Labour party. They hate anyone who actually loves and will defend their own people, so that is hardly surprising.

  • Ulidian Realist

    Can you please just take your own cyanide pill and be done with it?

  • terence patrick hewett

    Have just found an article by Martin Currie: “Would independence result in Scots having two passports”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-25715397

    He goes into this question in some depth. As usual you can’t get any concrete answers: but a great deal of “Sir Humphrey Appleby” is going back and forth from one side to another. I don’t think anybody really knows. Can you get any sense out of it.

  • mickfealty

    Yeah right.

  • Am Ghobsmacht

    Ulidian ‘Realist’

    If anyone is forcing anyone to take cyanide it would appear to be the Orange Order trying to force feed the pro-union movement in Scotland an unhelpful dose.

    Can anyone, with any amount of conviction whatsoever claim that this move is a ‘good idea’?

    Even a former UDA commander explicitly stated that it runs the risk of pushing undecided left-of-centre types into the ‘yes’ camp.

    That the OO has the RIGHT to do so is not being questioned, I simply believe that it’s a stupid idea.

    Surely you can see this?!

  • Devil Eire

    tmich57: “I don’t take it all that seriously as a poll as there is no demographic weighting…”

    YouGov poll results: “In addition to weighting by age, gender, and social class (weighted and unweighted figures shown in the tables), YouGov also weighted its raw data by newspaper readership, political party identification and place of birth..”

    You can imagine how seriously I take your posts.

  • terence patrick hewett

    After having read both the BBC article by Martin Currie and the HM Government paper it seems that this is just one of many areas which will need to be negotiated.

    I think the killer paragraph from the BBC article “Would independence result in Scots having two passports” is:

    “As things stand, the UK allows dual citizenship, and the Scottish National Party would expect this to be extended to allow UK/Scottish citizenship in the event of independence.
    However, it would ultimately be for the UK government to decide whether that would be the case.”

    And from the HM Government paper “Scotland analysis: Borders and citizenship”

    “4.4 Although it may be possible to be a dual British-Scottish national in the event of Scottish independence, this cannot be guaranteed. The government of the continuing UK would need to consider whether all British citizens living in Scotland could retain their British citizenship upon independence. This could be dependent on any residence requirements or proof of affinity to the continuing UK. It is not possible to predict now what the
    decision of a future government of the continuing UK might be in this area. Likewise an independent Scottish state would need to consider whether its citizenship would be based on any residency requirements or proof of affinity to Scotland. Therefore it cannot be guaranteed that dual nationality would be available to everyone who was a British citizen before independence, and who then became a Scottish citizen.”

    It seems what the SNP administration are displaying is a set of aspirations: and what they are getting back from the UK government is “maybe” “perhaps” “can’t be guaranteed” “possible” et al and ad infinitum.

  • Biftergreenthumb

    Not really the same thing though, is it? Republicans and Nationalists tend to use the “We’re one Island so we should be one country”/”if aliens came down from outer space they’d think it was mad to have two governments on one island” argument. If applied to Britain then those that use this argument should be against Scottish independence. Britain is one island so it should be one country (according to the argument). For those nationalists that use that kind of argument there is a definite contradiction between arguing for a united Ireland and hoping for a yes vote in the Scottish referendum.

    There is no similar argument on the unionist side. There is no contradiction at all between wanting NI to remain in the UK and wanting Scotland to remain in the UK.

  • Jag

    “Offering Scotland more power over tax rates, spending and welfare, the proposals would be ready for implementation in the first Westminster parliamentary session after the 2015 general election, Osborne added.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/scottish-independence-westminster-no-campaign-last-stand

    “More power over welfare”? Shouldn’t one of our parties be demanding the same for this jurisdiction? What else can they extract – these are the days when we should see the negotiation range available at Westminster.

  • Morpheus

    What kind of comment is that to put on a public forum?????

  • Barneyt

    Does anyone else think that, ironically, the establishment of a Scottish independent state may help bring us closer together at home? Just thinking out loud. I know they have no intentions of forming a republic or ditching the pound, but they will have offloaded the “big bully” in the Union, and in doing do have a wider appeal in NI?

  • chrisjones2

    Yes…and Hitler and Stalin shared that view but on a teensie wider scale and look where that took us

  • chrisjones2

    Until they sold it to England when the South Sea Bubble burst

  • chrisjones2

    Delusional. What major business will want the uncertainty. It will be priced into any deal. They will have no currency of their own

  • chrisjones2

    I agree re the Scots choosing. What I said is that if its isn’t decisive it may blow back on the economy. Do try and keep up!

  • chrisjones2

    This bit of the thread sounds like a debate in a Glasgow pub at 1130 on a Saturday night

  • Joe_Hoggs

    Of course the Republican parade planned for Glasgow will shore up the Yes vote. Get real Ernekid, you backward ignoramus.

  • Morpheus

    Save me the faux-intellectual claptrap. What you bizarrely did is try to pass off your opinion as fact but regardless yes or no is pretty decisive. Is it a risk? Aboso-fecking-lutley but it is their risk to take if they want to.

  • Joe_Hoggs

    Did we really expect an impartial view from Carl Marks??

  • Joe_Hoggs

    No.

  • Morpheus

    He’s what is known as a fizzler – starts off with “the truth” blah blah blah…republican scum blah blah blah…the truth hurts blah blah blah…maybe a mention of Loughall or Gibraltar then fizzles out, never to be seen again.

  • carl marks

    ”/”if aliens came down from outer space they’d think it was mad to have two governments on one island”

    first time i heard that one, which republican are you quoting (the hole in the wall gang don’t really count).
    let me try to explain it to you, Ireland,Scotland and Wales were invaded by the English and surprise surprise the Scots want to rule themselves, comparing NI (a failed state formed by gunmen against the wishes of the majority of people on the island and the British government) to Scotland a country in its own right is primary school politics.

  • carl marks

    confused about the Hitler and Stalin thing, cant see how that is in any way relevent, could you explain it please

  • Joe_Hoggs

    You tend to just be confused Marks.

  • Biftergreenthumb

    “which republican are you quoting (the hole in the wall gang don’t really count).”

    Lol I know it’s a ridiculous argument! But Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn Fein Vice President, made it in her debate with Basil McCrea at the Sinn Fein summer school in 2013. See from about 10 mins in at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbqRq040gTI

    “let me try to explain it to you, Ireland, Scotland and Wales were invaded by the English and surprise surprise the Scots want to rule themselves…”

    Not really sure what that’s meant to explain or why you are trying to explain it to me.

    “…comparing NI (a failed state formed by gunmen against the wishes of the majority of people on the island and the British government) to Scotland a country in its own right is primary school politics.”

    I agree that the NI situation and the Scottish situation are completely different. The Scottish issue is whether or not they want independence. Ours is about whether we want to be part of one state or another.

    In my post I wasn’t expressing a view on either the Scottish referendum or the constitutional position of NI. My point was simply that there is no inconsistency or “delicious irony” in unionists wanting Scotland to stay in the union but not wanting NI to be part of a united Ireland, as Neil was saying in his post. There is no inconsistency or irony because
    Unionist don’t make the sort of “One island therefore one
    government/state” argument that some anti-partitionists (such as Mary Lou McDonald) make.

  • carl marks

    well sure you explain it to me then Joe,

  • Am Ghobsmacht

    Joe_Hoggs

    Forgive the pedantry but there is a bit of a difference between the two parades and their respective audiences:

    The route of the republican parade in Glasgow is for the greater part skimming the city centre and with the exception of the Cathedral precinct the remainder of the path from High st to Saltmarket to the Gorbals is hardly ‘hostile territory’ for republican things given that these areas are Celtic FC friendly zones for the football games (though not 100% sure about the lower part of Saltmarket by the bridge).

    It then heads down Pollockshaws and Victoria. No stranger to republican parades.

    Most people shopping in the city centre in Glasgow that day won’t notice it (unless they’re heading to the Barras).

    Contrast that with the OO’s route for Edinburgh: Well, it’s not so ‘discreet’ and might impinge on Dunedinites going about their business (FYI, they don’t like that).

    Even a former UDA commander has stated that this parade is a bad idea.

    In general, it appears that most of the support for the Orange Order’s parade is coming from the Orange Order itself.

    Surely an independent view should be sought beforehand just in case the general public do not share the Orange Order’s opinion of itself?

  • carl marks

    Joe, of course you dont, this is a site for people with different opinions to debate different points of view!
    thats the thrid personal attack you have made on me and it is quite obvious that you are sniping because you cannot put forward a counter argument.
    but maybe im wrong, care to play the ball instead of the man.
    and tell us how im wrong!

  • carl marks

    Care to tell us how Joe? i dont think calling people names pass’s for a reasoned argument outside loyalist circles!

  • faillandia

    Th No campaign seem to have ended up in a position where everything they do annoys people. Talk hard economic facts or try soft-soap and lose more votes. Even to poor royal baby is going down like a lead balloon. That would suggest that the drift to yes will continue and the biggest shock in the democratic history of these islands is about to happen. I didn’t see it coming but in contemplating it I think, as an Irish nationalist, it will make it easier to feel part of an “islands” context. It will be another voice at at the table and I feel that will be very positive.

  • carl marks

    of course the no camp is panicking, yesterday the pro no English papers played the Queen card, telling us all how upset she is about the whole thing (despite the fact that she is obliged to stay out of the debate ) they are reduced to twee flag wrapping.
    I dont know if the Yes side will win the vote but they have won the argument!

  • carl marks

    of course ” yesterday the pro no English papers” should read ” yesterday the pro no vote English papers”

  • carl marks

    well i stand corrected, you obviously spend more time listening to the Shinners than i do, and you are right it is a petty stupid argument!

  • Joe_Hoggs

    No there is no point, Slugger has proven to be a cold house for anything Unionist and it’s people like yourself that ensure this remains the case. Look at Ernkid’s sectarian comment above, do you seriously expect and Unionist worth their salt to engage in this nonsense.

    The moment a Unionist view is put forward immediately we are called bigoted and sectarian – so keep your soapbox forum for yourselves.

  • Joe_Hoggs

    Yawn

  • gunterprien

    For once I agree with you Mick.
    Leaving the EU will lead to a breaking up of the UK.
    And this boy for one, Can’t wait.
    Scottish vote is not that important..It’ll be the voye in 2017..Which will change everything…Utterly.

  • gunterprien

    Cheer up..Maybe they’ll get hit by a tram.
    They weren’t there during the last “traditional route”

  • gunterprien

    Please post in the British press.
    You are good for a few more Yes Votes.
    Poor wee Scots..Your British coz you went bankrupt..Don’t even think of leaving.
    So are you the chairman or the chief exective of bitter together?
    You sure have the strategy down pat.

  • gunterprien

    But Chris..What happens when England votes out in 2017?
    Or do you believe the English won’t be allowed/granted a vote on the eU in 2017?
    Ya couldn’t make it up.

  • Joe_Hoggs

    If the Orange did nothing then you would complain too, there are many within the Orange familiy undecided or considering the “Yes” option, this parade is aimed at those people along with supporters who are undecided or whom maybe voting “Yes”.

  • Am Ghobsmacht

    Joe

    I can assure that I would not complain should the OO keep their distance in this instance.

    I could understand the OO’s ambition to make undecided types see the light IF they were an institution that commands respect among the general public but alas that is not my understanding of the situation and as such I feel they will deter more of the public than they will convert.