An Ynys Môn by-election – a psephologist’s dream.

Tomorrow sees an Assembly by-election in Ynys Môn as Ieuan Wyn Jones seeks pastures new. (from the BBC).

I won’t dream of predicting the result as Anglesey people taught thrawn to you lot…

There’s only one rule that the islanders follow. Once elected you only lose by retiring, dying or being thrown in clink….

Here’s the list of UK Parliament MPS since the war:

1929 – 51 Megan Lloyd George Liberal
1951 – 1979 Cledwyn Hughes Labour (the exception to the rule as Cledwyn beat Megan in 1951, typically contrary one of only 2 Labour gains in that election)
1979 – 1987 Keith Best Conservative (Cledwyn retired)
1987 – 2001 Ieuan Wyn Jones Plaid Cymru (Keith imprisoned briefly for buying BT shares under multiple variations of his name)
2001 – present Albert Owen Labour (Ieuan stood down to serve full time in the National Assembly)

So since the War each of the four parties has represented the island, and on no occasion has a retirement led to a successor from the same party.

the Assembly results a little more straightforward:

1999- present Ieuan Wyn Jones Plaid Cymru.

Here’s the candidates from the BBC:
Labour’s Tal Michael (Alun Michael’s lad), Rhun ap Iorwerth for Plaid Cymru (resigned as BBC Political correspondent to fight the seat), Conservative Neil Fairlamb,(the Rector of Biwmares) Liberal Democrat Steve Churchman (a Councillor on the mainland) , Socialist Labour Party’s Kathrine Jones and UKIP’s Nathan Gill.

A strangely subdued campaign…although Syniadau has got annoyed at Rhun’s approach to nuclear power….and the Daily Post lambasts Labour for it’s usual parachuting tactics…

There’s language issues here as well -with a large in-migrant population (32% born outside Wales) and big variations in Welsh language ability across the island – ranging from:
36% in Rhosneigr in the west to
80.5% in Cefni (smack in the middle)
Here’s the census link for those stats.

Rhun’s the favourite…but that means nothing…