The Unicorns are Multiplying

The Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey is often quoted on this site, and just as often its finding are disputed, primarily the figure of only 16% support a United Ireland.

However another survey has also come to light in today’s Newsletter, conducted for Queen’s University, Belfast by Market Research Northern Ireland,  and organised by Dr John Garry, the poll found that 29.3 per cent of people wanted to “remain in the UK with a direct and strong link to Britain” while 53.3 per cent wanted to “remain in the UK and have a strong Assembly and government in Northern Ireland”.

Just 17.4 per cent wanted a united Ireland.

It appears the Unicorns are doing rather well.

 

  • Sorry, looks like you’ve already fixed it.

    For those interested, Dr Garry’s own writeup is here and the original results are here. The link on the Newsletter’s page is broken in multiple ways.

  • Mick Fealty

    Ach, you’ve skipped over the interesting bit:

    “…both the DUP and Sinn Fein were held responsible for ‘peace, security and stability’ (one quarter). The DUP in particular were seen as shaping the lives of Protestants (46 per cent) while Sinn Fein were seen as shaping the lives of Catholics (56 per cent).

    “This perceived influence of the the DUP and Sinn Fein and the lack of influence of the UUP, SDLP and Alliance is also illustrated in the responses to a further question in the survey.

    “Respondents were asked to indicate how much influence (a lot, some, not much or none) each party had in the 2007-2011 government.

    “Between 55 and 57 per cent said the DUP and Sinn Fein had “a lot” while only between six and eight per cent said this of the other three parties.”

    Also, just over a quarter stated that the SDLP and Alliance had either “not much” or no influence while, worryingly for the UUP, over a third of respondents said it had either not much or no influence.

  • Dec

    Essentially, 55% want stability and current arrangements at this time. Hold the front page.

  • I also find the turnout figures interesting – see pp 8, 9 and the last page of this pdf. It shows that unlike international norms, it is the working classes in NI who are politicised and the professional classes who are apathetic. It also shows a higher turnout among Catholics and in Catholic-majority constituencies, which may be related.

    The garden centres must be very busy.

  • Drumlins Rock

    Andrew, it is related, SF still knock the doors of those who havn’t voted.

  • Greenflag

    ‘The garden centres must be very busy.’

    Well it’s spring isn’t it ?

    ‘it is the working classes in NI who are politicised ‘

    ‘They are the ones who have least of all and therefore the ones who have most to lose in the event of any major political change ‘

    A UI or the status quo is not going to affect the professional classes . That was true even back in the 1920’s in the Free State .

    An interesting comment that ‘ ‘unlike international norms ‘ . Care to give one or two examples ?

  • GF,

    I was merely repeating the report author’s conclusions, but the first Google result for “uk turnout by demographic” has such a result on page 10. Wiki also has this nice graph for the last US Presidential election.

  • Turgon

    It is really self important to mention it but since DR and Mick and Alex Kane in the News Letter are all using it, I want to lay claim to the term unicorn for pro union Catholics. I do not think I stole it off anyone else but please do use it as it is one of my few good ideas.

  • Barnshee

    Sadly the Castle Catholics remain with us

  • Dec 12.56
    Interesting how those favouring the NILT poll are anxious to avoid the distorting factor of the RoI ‘s current economic hardship as to mention this would detract from their case.

  • Drumlins Rock

    Turgon, we are deeply indebted, had forgotten its origin to be honest, but the meaning is so well understood it no longer needs explaining on Slugger at least.

  • JR

    Interesting study. One thing that seems obvious to me is there was no option of “Unite with Ireland and have a strong Assembly and government in Northern Ireland”
    however it certainly is food for thought among the nationalist parties who need to bring the Nationalist messaging into 2012. To be fair to them the playing field is not level. It is natural that the economic difficulties in the South at the minute and the current mismatch between taxation and public spending will tilt the scales in favor of the Union for some.

    I suppose anyone could get used to a situation where they could eat all the rich food they wanted without ever having to go to the Gym.

    Sooner or later England will turn off the money tap!!

  • Drumlins Rock

    mad ra, the NILT surveys go back right into the Celtic Tiger era, in 2007 at the height of the boom the United Ireland option still only managed 23%, 2003 was 24%, the figure are consistant, and falling, with the seperate survey quoted here backing them up.

  • Drumlins Rock

    JR, it can’t be an option because such an option does not exist at present, except in a hyperthetical manner with a fringe element. As for the level playing field, see the answer above.

  • Alex Kane

    Turgon (re: 3.25pm post)

    Hi Turgon. When I used the term “Unicorn Catholics” in a recent article I mentioned that it was a lovely term—but made it clear that it wasn’t my own.

    So I am delighted to know that it originates from you.

    Hope all well,

    Regards,

    Alex.

  • JR

    DR,

    I am aware it is a hypothetical option but that is beside my point. It is quite difficult to articulate what I am trying to say here but I’ll give it a go. My point is that the option to “remain in the UK and have a strong Assembly and government in Northern Ireland” is one which is dependant on the generosity of the London Government. It is in my view a “having your cake and eating it” option that has broad appeal for those on the centre ground. Hypothetical or not is not there is no center ground “United Ireland lite” or third option open to nationalists. So the swing vote will be on the UK side for the time being.

    As per the answer above I don’t see it as adressing my point. You fail to mention the High standard of health care, education and infrastructure here that we could not pay for ourselves. The South of Ireland could not pay for, even at the height of the bubble nor could the UK pay for for that matter if it wanted to achieve those standards accross the UK. We are the classic “free rider”

  • Dec

    ‘My point is that the option to “remain in the UK and have a strong Assembly and government in Northern Ireland” is one which is dependant on the generosity of the London Government.’

    It’s also dependant on the existence of the UK but that’s another story. As to JR’s point, why isn’t ‘Joint Authority’ an option on these surveys? Why doesn’t a Nationalist party adopt it as a policy? Seems like a no-brainer to me.

  • tacapall

    Lets work out what a Catholic Unicorn is. Well going from the other thread on Catholic unemployment where most Unionists view Catholics as uneducated lazy scroungers who traditionally live off the state. The Catholic Unicorn knows what side his/her bread is buttered on, is loyal to the half crown when it suits but if the grass looks greener on the other side they will no doubt jump ship. I suppose if your happy with that then good luck hanging on to them but its gonna cost you.

  • Mick Fealty

    Was intrigued that there’s no read out for Protestants who believe in a UI… whereas Catholics get read out against three options…

    Does that mean that not one Protestant in 1000 was prepared to plump for a UI? Houston, we have a problem…

  • Drumlins Rock

    JR, the earlier surveys did not have the assembly option, which probably accounts for part of the fall from 24% to 16% in those favouring a UI.

  • john

    With regards to a referendum question it could get messy as 4 options have already been mentioned or would ther be a general UK v UI question followed by a a UI or UK does Northern Ireland retain autonomy

  • john

    With regards to a referendum question it could get messy as 4 options have already been mentioned – surely an option with 27% winning tally isnt a mandate or would there be a general UK V UI question followed by a number of questions regarding autonomy within the UK or UI. As for the protestants who votes for a united Ireland ,the anti-unicorn (any ideas Turgon for name) they have always been a rare breed at about 1% of the population and this is something nationalism must look into as to why it is failing to find a larger support across the divide. I agree with an earlier post that a lot of the unicorns are probably not bothered and in reality would happily change their mind if it saved them a few bob. Apathy and lack of interest in changing the status quo seem to be playing a big part but circumstances change all the time so who knows what the future brings.

  • Turgon

    Alex,
    Sorry to sound sycophantic but the fact that you used it actually honours me. Now if I could just thing of something actually useful I could get rich.

    Regards

  • Turgon

    john,
    I have tried to thing of other clever ones but they tend to fail. Ogres / trolls or orcs for anti agreement unionists was as good as I could get and it just does not catch on. The same with non voting working class unionists which was Shell Suit Prods as opposed to Garden centre Prods.

    I always fancied trying a career in advertising as it might have made money and avoided work and the Saatchis did well for themselves, though I would have collected ridiculous cars as well as art. Sadly apart from unicorns I have achieved little enough. I will keep trying. Maybe like John Harrison I will get rich just before I die. More liely I will just die with my wife having spent my money on holidays and doing up the house.

  • DamienMcE

    Ulsters
    Northern
    Irish
    Catholics
    Observe
    Republics
    Nonperformance?

  • Reader

    Dec: why isn’t ‘Joint Authority’ an option on these surveys? Why doesn’t a Nationalist party adopt it as a policy? Seems like a no-brainer to me.
    All of the parties are busy campaigning for aspirations, and will settle for the GFA in the meantime. A party that campaigns for JA is passing up the chance to campaign for a UI.
    Apart from anything else, it may be tactically unwise. The damage that has been done by the GFA to the prospect of a United Ireland would surely only be made worse by *actual* Joint Authority.
    And finally, how could a nationalist party get an agreed change to Joint Authority past the unionists? That would require some serious horse trading!

  • RyanAdams

    tacapall

    The level of subvention NI gets, Its going to be a long time before that grass down there looks any greener.

    JR put it brilliantly earlier:

    “I suppose anyone could get used to a situation where they could eat all the rich food they wanted without ever having to go to the Gym. “

  • BluesJazz

    Joint Authority would only wash if the Republic agreed to pay half the NI subvention. See how far that one travels in the South.

    We’re in clover here. No-one else in the world gets away with what we get handed on a plate. Owen Paterson knows this,so do his servants at Stormont- that’s why the reservation is quiet. Someday, we’re going to get smoked out, but for now, the public sector gravy train keeps movin’.

  • jgarry

    Hi Mick,
    Re the point about Protestants being given the option of a United Ireland… All respondents were given the same constitutional options to choose from but the numbers of Protestants opting for a United Ireland was very low and hence the table in question was limited to the two non-United Ireland options. This was purely a presentational matter. I agree the point could have been clarified in a footnote. I can check the precise numbers of Protestants opting for a United Ire tomorrow.
    Hope this clarifies
    John Garry

  • tacapall

    tacapall

    “The level of subvention NI gets, Its going to be a long time before that grass down there looks any greener.”

    Well until it does – When in Rome do as the Windsors do.

  • Mick Fealty

    John, we will. Nursing the site at the moment till we can find a server that better fits our monster of an archive… Then we can restore the preview facility…

  • Dewi

    DR – do you know any personally? – I’d be astonished if in Tyrone and Fermanagh it’s a big demographic?

  • Dec

    ‘Joint Authority would only wash if the Republic agreed to pay half the NI subvention.’

    Says who?

  • RyanAdams

    tacapall,

    The coin has two sides. If the UK were ever to be in the ROI’s economic position, I think there are plenty of ‘middle of the road/rugby/middle class’ protestants who would be prepared to maintain their standard of living that could tilt support for a UI to the extent it actually becomes a viable proposition in a border poll …

  • Drumlins Rock

    Dewi, thats a tricky question, only really building up friendships acorss the divide in recent years, and asking a question like that is a good way to loose such friends! Reading between the lines most would still aspire to a UI but pragmatically aren’t going to vote for it, and are becoming quite comfortable with the current arrangments.

  • RyanAdams

    *That is of course assuming the unicorn block agrees

  • RyanAdams

    Dewi,

    I have encountered the ‘demographic’ in friends from Andersonstown and Lagmore (both parts of ‘Republican’ West Belfast)

    If it can be found there, I believe it could be found anywhere. Just in what quantity is the key question.

  • Mick Fealty

    Thanks John. That figures. From memory, the LIfe and Times survey usually kicks in about 2%. If you did have enough to draw figures from it would not be worth putting them in..

    Still, for Dec and others, how on earth do you think you’re going to get joint sovereignty on the table given so few in the majority community find UI so difficult to contemplate?

    Unless you are banking on some kind of Marxian collapse?

  • IJP

    Mick

    As ever, the points you make are entirely fair.

    Two obvious questions:
    1. Why would you want to divide even the 17% further by offering different options under that heading?
    2. (Ok, slightly off topic) Why on earth would anyone in their right mind, having attained support for a “United Ireland”, want then to repartition it with an expensive Assembly in the North (when the Irish State has zero experience of such a level of regional government?)

    In other words, this all proves what little real thinking has gone into the notion of a “United Ireland”, to the extent that I couldn’t see it happening even if the UK broke up on the grounds that absolutely no one has come up with a sensible and viable way to make it happen (far less to sell it).

  • Drumlins Rock

    Are there any Unicorns out there who would like to stick their neck out and put their thought down for us? It would be nice to hear someone speak for themselves on this issue instead of both side speculating.

  • Red Lion

    the GFA is a joint authority of sorts.

    In my view NI will always have some degree of joint authority, its just a qeustion as to what extent either London or Dublin is the bigger, but increasingly at-arms-length central government.

    Mick, demographics is the answer to your point at 10.09. When a Catholic majority appears then this 3rd way of actual joint authority will become more stark. Tabled not only by unionists trying to avoid a sinn fein vision of a UI, but also by Dublin who will be scared witless at the prospect of being the main authority (and bankroller) for NI, and will want to keep a real and significant role for London as a security and financial insurance policy. In any event we’ll always be under the Queen.

    Thats my mere opinion at how things might play out.

  • BluesJazz

    ‘Joint Authority would only wash if the Republic agreed to pay half the NI subvention.’

    “”Says who?”

    Well, if you agree to share a house, you contribute the relevant amount towards the rent. That’s the way it works in shared ownership schemes. I can try and make it simpler for you.

    David and Enda want to buy a car between them for £1000. (even though the car presently belongs to David)

    Enda says ‘I haven’t got any money’. So David would say

    1. That’s ok Enda, I’ve got tons of it, you can drive it whenever you want.

    2. Fuck away off.

    Which option should David pick?

  • Zig70

    Part of it may be that Nats are often brought up without a border. Ulster has 9 countiea, the capital is Dublin and the anthem’s the Soldiers Song. I’ve an Irish passport, Irish identity, Irish everything. If I was to move South my standard of living would be pretty similar, endless comparisons with my brother, different bills but all in all a similar amount of cash left from your pay. After the gfa, what does a UI gain? Dublin is as weary of the North as London, you don’t feel wanted as the presidential election showed. It was probably the most damaging thing in a while. So understandable why Nats wouldn’t rush to a UI better the devil you know. 2 points though, I doubt many unicorns would ever vote unionist, although I’ve meant some niave souls and second you can’t account for the sense of history, cue the pogues.

  • Alias

    There is no such entity as a ‘conditional nationalist’. Self-determination via a sovereign nation state is an inalienable part of the definition. A right is not confitional, whereas an aspiration is.

    Those are catholic unicorns (mandatory attribution to Turgon, lest he appear with a ‘cease and desist’ copyright notice) who mistakenly think that they are nationalists.

  • Alias

    Man: “I’m a loyal husband to my wife.”

    Mistress: “Then why are you sleeping with me?”

    Man: “What has that got to do with me being a loyal husband?”

  • tacapall

    In these present times it suits Britain’s security interests to have a foot in Ireland this in turn keeps Unionists happy that this will always be unless either Britain disappears or there’s world peace. Unionists know the worst case scenario is a Catholic majority leading to the only possible concievable outcome that suited both Nationalist and Protestant as well as Dublin and London for different reasons – Joint Authority and the best they can do from here on in is stall, hinder, thwart and negotiate the best possible deal for both them and Britain.

  • TheUnicorn

    Speaking as I do for myself… This poll means nothing, ask any group of right thinking people for their views on NI they’d be relatively happy with things as they are, however ask if they want a united Ireland or a strong union and the old ingrained bias will surely surface.
    The more things change the more they stay the same. The less militant NI became the more people strayed from ‘reasonable’ parties such as SDLP and UUP towards the more entrenched SF and DUP.
    Unfortunately bigotry remains in this part of the world and we are a long way from stepping out of its shadow. I am a potential unicorn but I will never be pro union, even though I am a proud ulster man. It is paradoxes like this that make the NI debate what it is. I see ulster as the best ‘cuiga’ in Ireland BECAUSE of its mixed/multicultural make up, not despite it. The sooner nationalist parties realise and adopt that the sooner they may involve liberal unionists. My rant is over. Good night and good luck!

  • latcheeco

    Is there really anything new here other than the fact that unionist are suddenly accepting after decades of denial that most northern nats were somewhat stoopish all along (most southern nats before 1921 were too btw). I mean it’s not as if Hume, Mc Grady and Mallon etc. never got a huge mandate for taking their seats in the House of Commons. What is new is the apparent need by unionists to get reassurance on the future security of the union from the mood of soft nationalists instead of invoking the traditional one million law -biding people of Ulster. This is perhaps a better indication of which way the wind is blowing

  • Gerry Lvs castro

    There does appear to be a strong consistency in all these polls, going back decades. Fact is the overall support for a UI remains very low and appears to be falling since the GFA.

    SF’s big problem is that the more ‘Irish’ NI becomes, the happier their constituency are to live within the union. The bogey man of the army and the RUC on the streets, the supposed suppression of Irish culture and the milk and honey over the border have all disappeared and the reasons for a UI are much less clear.

    As a Unionist who lived through the troubles, pretty much everything about the current dispensation is better. We still have the financial and cultural benefits of UK citizenship as well as a level of peace unseen for 50+ years. The worst excesses of the frequently embaressing OO have been curtailed and both communities are freer to express their respective cultures.

    Sectarian tensions and distrust will always be there (as they would in a UI) but the rationale for unification has yet to be proved.

    SF can continue to whinge and mope, but they need to accept that people can vote DUP whilst regarding their views on evolution and gays as laughable, they can go to mass every week whilst co-habiting and using contraception, and they can vote SF whilst regarding a UI as an impractical pipe dream.

    latcheeco: ”What is new is the apparent need by unionists to get reassurance on the future security of the union from the mood of soft nationalists instead of invoking the traditional one million law -biding people of Ulster. This is perhaps a better indication of which way the wind is blowing”

    Equally we’re seeing endless attempts at ‘Unionist outreach’ and ‘persausion for a UI’ from SF. If there is such support in the nationalist community for a UI, why would they even bother?

  • The question of people’s preference over who is their head of State is not the most important part of the QUB survey. What it says about the influence of the parties and how people view political responsibility is much more interesting.

    There is a clear unwritten message behind the survey, said many times before, that the UUP and the SDLP should go into opposition for the better development of Northern Irish democracy.

  • I’m afraid the reality is biting. Without meaning to overly patronise a more traditional, status quo, conservative section of the population, many (post) catholic nationalists don’t have an overly developed sense of loyalty to anything except for living the moment. The fight for ideals is not as intense because there is no ogre to fight at the moment. This pragmatism might come from a hundred reasons including a tradition of emigration and re-imigration and consequent exposure to other cultures, a solidarity with political philosophies from around the world, a cultural disposition towards flexibility and creativity to get on in the world in the face of all the hardships they experienced, a lack of ” to the letter of the law” and “by the book” theology – i.e. we never did do scripture.

    Whatever the cause it all leaves the post catholic nationalists being pragmatic – it is tiring to be constantly living as if your life is under threat. Right now it isn’t and no one has to pretend it is. Therefore it is a lazy time for fundamentalism. It’s like Armagh and Tyrone GAA – they always thrive on adversity – they are all out to get us. No they aren’t – everyone quite likes you. So they fade back into mediocrity.

    So it is with the post catholic nationalists – time to make hay while the sun shines and the next crisis will bring them back out on the streets.

    In 1916 it took a blood sacrifice and a stupid policy of executions to raise the population in arms.

  • PaulT

    The one elephant in the room with all these surveys is that they offer two known choices and an unknown (UI)

    Are there fairer ways to put the UI choice?

    I recall a recent scottish poll that gave an opportunity to vote for independence if it improved living standards

    One note of caution with unicorns, they have a herd instinct, if one of them starts to wander in a southerly direction more than likely they all will.

    You only need to look at their cousins the cows, when british beef wasn’t welcome abroad because of foot and mouth they decided to become irish.

    If both govts decided a UI was preferred they would put forward the right arguement,

  • Dec

    ‘Joint Authority would only wash if the Republic agreed to pay half the NI subvention.’

    “”Says who?”

    David and Enda want to buy a car between them for £1000. (even though the car presently belongs to David)

    Which option should David pick?’

    Joint Authority would only wash if the Republic agreed to pay half the NI subvention.’

    “”Says who?”

    Well, if you agree to share a house, you contribute the relevant amount towards the rent. That’s the way it works in shared ownership schemes. I can try and make it simpler for you.

    David and Enda want to buy a car between them for £1000. (even though the car presently belongs to David)

    Enda says ‘I haven’t got any money’. So David would say

    1. That’s ok Enda, I’ve got tons of it, you can drive it whenever you want.

    2. F**k away off.

    Which option should David pick?

    Ah but your ‘simpler’ analogy seems to have one galring omission: the cash the British Exchequer receives from the NI tax-payer. Now if you’re suggesting Britain gives half of that over to Dublin then you have a discussion. Still your response is typical of Unionists on this site who get all bolshy about Border polls (with justification, mind) but suddenly get a bit more antsy when joint authority (which already exists on a political level) is mentioned.

  • OneNI

    This poll and the L and T polls suggest the status quo is acceptable to approx 75% of the population. End of.

  • HeinzGuderian

    This poll and the L and T polls suggest the status quo is acceptable to approx 75% of the population. End of.

    Indeed. And the same figure applies in Scotland.

    I’m not sure the ‘end of’ will happen anytime soon though ? 😉

  • OneNI

    Indeed Heinz there is much hot air in Scotland too

  • JR

    One NI,
    Pity no-one thought of that in 1922.

  • Frustrated Democrat

    Everyone knows a UI is not going to happen in the next generation, 30 odd years of bombs and bullets had the opposite effect to that intended.

    Perhaps Turgon’s unicorns may yet turn into something a lot more substantial, perhaps 2 horned mountain goats who can get to the top of the mountain.

    What party and policies would make them vote?

  • tacapall

    “Perhaps Turgon’s unicorns may yet turn into something a lot more substantial, perhaps 2 horned mountain goats who can get to the top of the mountain.

    What party and policies would make them vote”

    Any party as long as the money keeps getting pumped in.

  • PaddyReilly

    I was doing some genealogical research the other day, and I used the online record of the Ulster Covenant. I was looking for a person with an unusual name in the context of Ireland: shall we say, Athelstane Splodgeworthy-McBigott. To my surprise I found there were two of them. I then looked for his sister, Eadgyth Splodgeworthy-McBigott, and
    found there were two of them as well. I then continued examining names, and found that however rare or improbable a name might be, there were always two of them. Less rare names occurred in 4s and 6s.

    By then the obvious conclusion had dawned on me: they had all signed the Covenant twice. It was the biggest act of mass perjury in history: but the Good Lord, being a Protestant, would understand how important this white lie was for God’s covenanted people.

    Unionism is not about being fair, truthful or objective: it is about ensuring that Unionism wins. That a Unionist should lie is hardly remarkable: ask a Unionist how many counties there are in Ulster, and see how many say nine. They don’t even think they’re lying: they believe that they have the right to change the answer (obviously, from 9 to 6) to suit the interests of Unionism. So it obviously follows that given access to a politically sensitive entity like a survey on
    Irish Unity, a Unionist will automatically change it to suit Unionism.

    So I do not doubt that as the nationalist percentage of the vote gets higher and higher, the number of Catholics in favour of remaining in the U.K. will rise inexorably towards 100%: perhaps it will even climb higher than 100%. But you have to consider how likely this result is. Sinn Fein voters turn out in election after election to vote for their party: but as it never achieved majority status, it can never actually
    do anything to benefit them: but this in no way diminishes the loyalty of their voters. The SDLP is the same, except that there is a gradual but steady haemorrhage of their voters in an SFward direction. Do you really believe that these loyal voters would actually vote against the
    one thing that would give their parties a chance of real power, that is, Irish Unification?

    Public elections in NI offer only a limited possibility of fraud.
    After the requirement of proper IDs was brought in, there was a noticeable increase in the Nationalist vote. Nevertheless, I still suspect that it may occur in a small, but significant number of cases: the number of DUP MLAs returned to Stormont at the last election was higher than the DUP vote should allow. Opinion polls are not subject to any legal controls: they may be fabricated as the surveyor pleases.

    Indeed, in many cases the only reason they are conducted is in order to produce the result the surveyor wants. The simple fact is that there are 19 Nationalists for every 21 Unionists, as per the last elections. The reversal of these figures is well within the realms of what is possible.

  • harpo

    “Unionism is not about being fair, truthful or objective: it is about ensuring that Unionism wins.”

    Indeed.

    And so what?

    “That a Unionist should lie is hardly remarkable: ask a Unionist how many counties there are in Ulster, and see how many say nine.”

    Most of them will.

    Dumb loyalists will say 6, but that’s just people who equate Northern Ireland and Ulster.

    Most unionists know that Northern Ireland has 6 counties, while Ulster has 9.

  • Zig70

    This thread is probably related to thread “It’s not a country you could admire”. Hard to tolerate the southerners looking down their nose at us up here in the crazy north. The Dublin media “West Brits” can be a condensending lot.

  • harpo

    Zig:

    So you live in Donegal?

  • OneNI

    Do you really believe that Paddy?
    The Scots Nats have a majority in the Scots Parliament and most commentators remain confident that despite this the Scots will not actually vote to leave the UK in 2014.
    Likewise many people in NI vote for ‘nationalist’ parties but arenty actually interested in a UI

  • Alias

    This thread is probably related to thread “It’s not a country you could admire”.

    Not really. They have’ve dug up any dead folks on this thread (ye) to torment us with their low opinions of us ‘southerners.’ I think they think we bow our heads in suitable shame whenever a quote from Joyce or Yeats is proffered such that we extend the disgrace to cover the musings of deceased journos and ilk…

  • Alias

    Gosh….*haven’t* & *yet*

  • Jimmy Sands

    The Dublin media “West Brits” can be a condensending lot.

    Better than being permanently steamed up.

  • harpo

    Nice one Jimmy.

    How’s life?

  • Paddy,

    I then continued examining names, and found that however rare or improbable a name might be, there were always two of them. Less rare names occurred in 4s and 6s.

    By then the obvious conclusion had dawned on me: they had all signed the Covenant twice.

    Every last one had signed exactly twice, no more and no less? None of them were tempted to sign three times? That’s so precise you’d almost think a computer had done it.

  • latcheeco

    Gerry lvs Castro

    “Equally we’re seeing endless attempts at ‘Unionist outreach’ and ‘persausion for a UI’ from SF. If there is such support in the nationalist community for a UI, why would they even bother

    Same reason on both counts: the math is clearly changing and both sides know it and it’s not changing in favour of unionism.

    Nationalists were always in a minority in Northern Ireland; the place was designed to have a foolproof PUL majority. However, it appears unionists are now no longer content to rely on themselves alone.

    The narrative appears to be changing recently-maybe because of the imminent census result- from dismissing the catholic demographic rise as wishful thinking -not least on Slugger- to asserting that most nationalists will wise up and know their place in the end.

    Good luck with that strategy because the truth is, awkward opinion polls notwithstanding, most of us haven’t ever met too many nats that will vote to save Ulster when the time comes. So unionist hopes probably will just rest with God after all.

  • Drumlins Rock

    “McBigott”

    Says it all about Paddy’s comment.

  • PaddyReilly

    Yes it does. Definition of a bigot: person who shows an excessive partiality to his own faction or tribe. That wouldn’t include swearing that you had signed just the once, when you had in fact signed twice, in the hope of convincing people that your faction was bigger than it really was, would it?

    P.S. The general method was to sign once giving their home address, and once giving the address as an Orange Lodge. Possibly some signed three times, and plenty just the once. But the final result is not a true figure.

  • Limerick

    Definition of a bigot: person who shows an excessive partiality to his own faction or tribe.

    Paddy McBigott.

  • ayeYerMa

    I think the fact that this survey shows 82.6% solid support for the Union and also shows 57.7% of Catholics voting Sinn Fein puts to rest the many nationalist attempts to try and rubbish NILT surveys by making an issue of the large level of SDLP support.

    It would be interesting to see the raw data and questions asked to gain such things in the survey. Personally, I believe the difference to be due to differences when asking who you voted for and who you “support” (the latter being how the NILT asked it).

    OneNI, if you look at the latest NILT polls where a question more directly relates on the status quo (and also indicates opinion from don’t cares who naturally go along with the status quo), then you actually find 90% satisfaction with the status quo, with only 0.5% having real solid problems with it:
    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/79/NILT_FUTURE2.png

  • ayeYerMa

    “It would be interesting to see the raw data and questions asked to gain such things in the survey”

    … ah, my suspicions are confirmed and I see the raw data is at the link posted earlier by Andrew:
    http://www.qub.ac.uk/schools/SchoolofPoliticsInternationalStudiesandPhilosophy/Staff/Garry/

    Another interesting statistic is that of the combined SDLP+Sinn Fein voters who stated a preference for the UK in whatever form — 41.8% of those were Sinn Fein voters!